Tag Archive for 'VIX'

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Interest rates anyone?

Published on April 6, 2011, 10:23 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , , .

Although volume is still low, it was the highest volume of the week. And crude and gold and silver are still manic bulls! And although we had a gap open to the positive side this morning, we quickly started to meander and flirt with red and green and back to red and back to green. Volatility remained low, confirmed by a narrow-range VIX.

I had a great day taking profits in F ZION and TBT. I’m all out of F and ZION, but still have several options in TBT. Banks/financials finally had their day today and am still holding C XLF and HCBK. My long hedges are SPY puts and a few SDS calls. It was a good day for the ol’ portfolio.

With the ECB announcing their rate hike Thursday morning (about 7:45AM EST), I’ll be watching TBT closely to make sure it does not become a “sell the news” event. If the UK also announces a rate hike, it could turn into a great day for TBT. Either way, interest rates and inflation will be moving up eventually! I’ve also got DZZ and ZSL on my watchlist…those ETFs are gold short and silver short….gotta come down soon, don’t you think?

“It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver.”
— Mahatma Gandhi

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Plop, pop, oh what a relief

Published on March 29, 2011, 9:53 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Even with bearish economic reports on consumer confidence and housing, the bulls brushed off their pootie, realigned themselves and marched up the charts!

And look at that VIX:

VIX Mar 30 2011

Except for that pop up 2 weeks ago it’s been in a channel forever. Last Thursday Friday and Monday formed a nice bullish Morningstar candle pattern, but it needed confirmation today…which fizzled quickly! The VIX remains oversold and looking for a way up the chart.

Job numbers start coming out tomorrow with the ADP and Challenger reports, Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS on Friday. Now we’ll see just what kind of job issues we had in March….could spring us to new highs or continue that correction we started last week. Oh what fun we’re having!

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Nice job bulls!

Published on March 24, 2011, 9:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

I thought that Durable Goods number was going to squash all my bullish hopes….but no! Jobless Claims tempered the bear surge along with good earnings reports from RHT MU and CAG. This could be the start of a beautiful friendship :mrgreen:

VIX is way back into the teens again and volume continues to be mediocre….but at least those traders have no fear.

Indexes look way overbought so I’m looking for some selling going into the weekend. Besides, who wants to hold stocks over the weekend?

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News-driven

Published on March 16, 2011, 9:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Technical analysis didn’t matter much today…it was an unbelievably news-driven day….difficult day to trade. The VIX was up 30% during the day, topping 31.28 which we haven’t seen since last summer.

We also had the highest TRIN close this year at 3.10 and way oversold. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. It’s worked the last several times it closed above 2. In anticipation, I entered some QQQQ calls.

We have the biggest economic news day of the week on Thursday with Jobless Claims, CPI, Industrial Production, Leading Indicators andPhilly Fed report…..and any news report that has the word “nuclear” in it!

“When you’re up to your ass in alligators, it is hard to remember that your original intention is to drain the swamp”

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Merger Monday

Published on February 7, 2011, 10:28 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Stocks gapped up in the morning and held those gains all day. Lots of good news via the M&A market, although volume was low. SPY volume was 35% below average daily volume. The VIX was up, which is a bit divergent since the markets were up also.

A slow week for economic data and earnings reports are thinning out…although we have CSCO later this week. Banks were strong today. The US dollar was a yo-yo.

Taking it slow and easy, watching charts and repeating to myself, “I don’t have to trade, I don’t have to trade!” 8)

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.” –Jesse Livermore

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What’s up?

Published on November 28, 2010, 11:33 am in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Now that we are done with the festival of dead birds and undone trouser buttons, it’s time for shopping! And it looked good at the malls, but the markets were scared about Euro debt and Korean war. With the big gap down I thought my few remaining long positions would be toast…but no. Indexes ground upward giving me a chance to still get a decent profit.

For the rest of the day I nibbled on SPY puts on every rally thinking when everyone got back next week the market would continue down. But, with that huge selloff at the close I was able to take 13% on half the positions. Why not….it was a real gift-horse! Still kept a few puts just in case there’s a gap-down Monday morning.

So we had a down day on a historical good day….days around holidays are always green! Even more interesting is how the S&P futures and VIX acted after the cash close.


As the S&P futures crashed after the cash close, volatility moved up!

So, what will next week bring? Was Friday’s close a premonition? We only have 2 more trading days in November and only 24 more trading days in 2010.
There should be some tax selling while volume starts to dwindle…through Chanukah, Christmas and New Years! Oh, and one more options expiration. Volatility should come into play…but isn’t that what the VIX is telling us?

Season’s Greetings and Happy Trading!

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What’s going on?

Published on November 11, 2010, 9:54 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

got out of CSCO put options right at the open for a mere 398% profit. Like clockwork, CSCO always goes down after a report, but never like this! It was wonderful! Oh yeah, and there were a few dollars to be made in QQQ puts as well. :mrgreen:

CSCO collapses, the markets go down, and the VIX is standing around doing nothing! What’s going on? Doesn’t all this activity warrant a bit of volatility? Crazy dollar, Korea trade collapse, too many bulls, low volume, lotsa call buying….something is about to happen! Or so it seems.

So after getting out of all those shorts in the morning, again by the close I have started short positions via TWM, QQQQ puts and IWM puts. It’s been working for two great days, I’ll try for another.

TGIF and happy trading!

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Finally!

Published on November 9, 2010, 10:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

Yesterday I talked about a bubble bursting….and today it finally did. A lot of money was made if your were short gold or silver. I was short silver via SLV puts and ZSL and yes, money was made! Woohoo!

Trading was lacksidasical for the first half of the day, but volatility sprang into action as the market performed a rollover. The question is, is this a short term correction or have we hit a major top? Now we need some follow through. What I would like is a gap up on Wednesday morning so to short again. I’ve added some QQQQ puts and QID in hopes this happens.

Think I’ll go celebrate a winning day!

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Slow!

Published on October 11, 2010, 11:14 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Gee, were the markets open today? Not many trades…SPY and ES trading was less than half the average volume. Ugh! Makes for a boring day. But I was busy loading Tradestation and Infinity on the new machine. Tomorrow I start trading with it…I’m excited. Plus I can give my backup PC a breather.

The Beige book comes out tomorrow is all the news, but INTC reports after the close. Futures this evening are under the weather, which is just fine with me.

I did make some trades today, buying some November VXX calls and a position in QID….yes, I’m looking for some pullback here.

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4 in a row with no relief!

Published on June 24, 2010, 7:29 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

In my 10+ years of trading, it has never been tougher than trading this week. Both banks and oil led us down. Banks kept us down while oil looks like it’s trying to recover. The only thing I traded today was ES, the S&P emini. Looking over the trades, not one was more than 5 minutes and several were under 120 seconds in duration! Oh my! Sure it was a down day, but all my trades were long.

Check this out….you would think we would go a lot lower with a VIX of 349!!

Sure it’s a bad tick, but I thought I’d grab a picture of it just to remember. :)

The TRIN again closed high at 2.99. Remember what I said a couple days ago when the TRIN closed at 3.82…The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble…..and we got NO bounce…and yes we’re in trouble.

So we’re down 4 days in a row. A 3 or 4% correction is no big whoop, but that is assuming tomorrow the markets get back on track and show some bullishness. If not, the bear is back and we may be on our way to some new lows.

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