Tag Archive for 'UCO'

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Greece and Oil

Published on June 14, 2010, 9:23 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Today was very much like last Wednesday…a strong morning and then a move down into the close. Now if we can just replicate the two days after last Wednesday, which, if you remember, were 2 very strong up days, we could have a very nice opex week.

Moody’s finally got around to downgrading Greece today….something everyone already knew. So what’s next? Announcing tomorrow that BP has clean-up expenses? What the $%@&*!

UCO had a nice run with oil this morning, but moved back down in the afternoon along with stocks. I’m still bullish on commodities in general and oil specifically. Here’s some reading that helps me with my bullish sentiment. The prez’s speech Tuesday night may help also.

Futures this evening still hanging around breakeven. C’mon bulls, just do it!

A good start

Published on June 13, 2010, 10:56 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Futures markets, along with Asia markets, are starting off in happy mode. We may just get back to the upper channel on my S&P charts at about 1106. Of course it’s early evening and we still have to have Europe open up, but so far if “feels” good!

Oil is moving up also and will help my UCO position. I’m looking hard at adding some other commodity ETFs this week: DYY DAG GRU DBA. A lot will depend on the US dollar and the euro of course.

And don’t forget it’s options expiration week. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Dow was down big in 2008 after being up 5 years in a row 2003-2007 for June expiration week.

Hang on, we’re in for another ride. :mrgreen:

666

Published on May 19, 2010, 9:53 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Last year in March, the S&P dropped down to 666 and it started a great bull run. Well, today, the Russell 2000 hit 666 as well. How about it….the start of another bull run?

I was stutter clicking today, afraid to go long, but my best wins are when I’m afraid to buy. Today was one of the best days I’ve had trading the ES to the long side. I also added some UCO C GTF….yes, to the long side. Position sizes are not large, but I will add to them if….no, when, they take off. :mrgreen:

Of course today’s heavy selling into the close gives me some trepidation, but I think we’re close to a bounce, if not a more sustained up move. While you’re waiting, here’s some notes to look over:
Commodities — the Crash You Didn’t Hear

Conspiracy of Banks Rigging States Came With Crash

Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average Nearing February Lows

Jobless Claims tomorrow morning and optione expiration on Friday. Buckle up, time for a ride!

Not much, but still up!

Published on May 17, 2010, 9:34 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

As I tweeted today, a down Friday equals an up Monday! And that has held for an entire year. Also Stock Trader’s Almanac said “Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 21.” …which makes it 20 out of 22 now. But that’s not all, “May Expiration Friday, Dow up 5 of last 6! This could be a good week. :mrgreen:

The market is sure spastic, but I’m still looking for some pressure to the upside, as could be seen this afternoon. That was a big move off the lows. But again, futures are showing their negative side….but then again, China hasn’t opened yet. And don’t forget yesterday’s big overnight reversal.

I added to my UCO position as I’m still looking for support around $10. It did overshoot, so I added. I have a stop under today’s low now. Here’s a couple of articles I found today on oil:
Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite the Gulf Spill

China Studies Using FX Reserves to Exchange for Oil

And another interesting story:
How P&G Plunge Derailed One Investor

Ok, I better update my TCnet and do some scans!

Got Oil?

Published on May 16, 2010, 7:55 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

With oil so much in the news, I would think that it should be hitting bottom soon…say, $70 maybe? I don’t trade the crude oil futures, so like I said a couple days ago, I’ve added USO UCO into the watchlist….I even nibbled a bit on UCO already. It looks like $10 has been a resistance/support area before.

Here’s a note on USO: Is This Oil ETF Ready For a Bounce? USO

After doing my scans this evening I see a lot of “evening star” setups, which generally means those particular stocks are going down. On the other side, I also found a greater number of hammers, looking for a reversal up on those stocks. Of course, as in all candlesticks signals, we need confirmation in the next candle, no matter which direction you think they may go.

Futures this evening are looking tired with ES down 6 points and YM down 60 points, and oil futures just about where they closed Friday. I went into the weekend on the long side, but in very small positions of UCO SSO and C. Remember, for the past year a down Friday is followed by an up Monday. :mrgreen:

I got some additional reading material for you today:
Impossible Wall Street Fixes

Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One

The Huge Difference Between The “Flash Crash” And The Crash Of ’87

5 things we still don’t know about the market plunge

Happy trading and I’ll see you in the market!