One of those weird days when gold, oil and the dollar, along with stocks, were up! As expected Durable Goods and the New Home sales sucked. Unexpected was the big oil inventories build-up, which sunk oil prices. But, like the last time this happened in late May, traders saw opportunity and started buying oil futures. And like it has done all year, oil led a move to the upside for stocks.
Keep an eye on oil to see which way we go stockwise. If oil continues its bravery, watch UCO USO and ERX.
Semiconductors also had some oomph in its step, most likely with the help of AAPL and INTC, but also watch XLK and SMH.
The crash for the day belongs to golfer Jim Furyk: Jim Furyk is disqualified from Barclays for missing pro-am tee time. Gee if he traveled more often he would know wbout hotel wake-up calls! 
As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.
There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 
I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.
Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.
Happy trading!
I didn’t like that move today…a 200 point range on the Dow…and closing near where it opened. Yes, another Doji day (open and close nearly identical) for the Dow. That’s four in a row. The Dow ran up and kissed its 50ma and then retracted for the rest of the day. But y’know, it wasn’t panicky, it wasn’t fast and it wasn’t with any large volume. So we closed right about where we closed on Friday. No big deal really! Tomorrow will say more….unless of course we close at the same place again.
The S&P candle is uglier than the Dow, a big bearish engulfing candlestick, but it still held 1110, its 200-day moving average. We haven’t given anything back since we bounced off 1050 two weeks ago.
Oil almost made it to $80. I unloaded some UCO, but as it turns out I should have unloaded it all. I’m still looking for a nudge of $83 or around the 200-day moving average, but I don’t know how fast that will happen. I guess we need to breakthrough the 50ma before hoping for that.
While I’m hoping for that (remember, hope rhymes with dope), here’s something to look over:
See you in the market! 
Today was just like yesterday! Yes, boring, but still showing confusion and consolidation, and again another doji. Candlesticks say we need a confirmation candle to tell us which way the market will go…but all we got was a “duh!” Which way do we go?
Oil got slapped around today, but considering that move from $69.50 to $78 in just 2 weeks, it too was due for some consolidation. Gold had a great day, breaking out through the May highs. The US dollar had a down day but may be looking for a move up. If it goes up the stock market goes crap.
I got a few coins out of TZA in the early morning, but then just stood still for the markets to do whatever they wanted to do. I’m still sitting long and cash….and the long part has a hairline trigger!
Quadruple-witching options expiration day on Friday! And no economic data reports nor any earnings reports may make for a dull opex. The action probably comes back next week.
I can’t ever remember the markets actually doing what I thought they would do! The S&P put in a doji day,as did the Dow, one red and one green. They both are still hanging above their respective 200 day moving averages. Considering the ugly news we had in the morning, bad housing, bad building permits and bad FDX guidance, you would think we would crash. But the markets persisted and came out a winner.
Oil had some bad news also with an inventory build, but oil shook it off and moved higher. My UCO position did well accordingly.
This rally has happened on decreasing volume, which by many accounts they say, is not a real rally. Technically all looks in place to keep on moving up…the break of the 200ma, bouncing off fibonacci retracement, MACDs moving up and all kinds of other indicators. But, and there’s always a but, the markets are very news oriented, and it doesn’t take much of a news blurb or even a rumor to send them tumbling down…again.
Was today enough rest? I don’t think so. I’m still looking for another breakeven to down day and again I’m not looking for much, just a little rest. So I’m mostly long with a bit of hedging via TZA. I’ll see how long I hold it.
See you in the trading arena!
I love it when a plan comes together. 
OpEx week is crazy anyways, but we’re still following the mold cast last week…a strong day that collapsed followed by 2 strong up days…1 down, 1 to go! My gut though says enough is enough, markets take a rest maybe….if not down.
We also broke through the 1050-1106 channel as well as the 200ma in the S&P. Of course we need to see some follow-through on Wednesday, but a small consolidation day won’t burst my bubble.
Oil had a very strong day and brought up all the oil ETFs that have been slapped around: UCO ERX USO. Now we will have to see what the world thinks now that the president has spoken. Don’t you all feel better now that he has solved all the problems? Unemployment should go down since he is forming a commission to figure out what happened, another commission to plan how to clean up the entire gulf region and yet another commission to dole out BP’s money. And like any other government department, these will take lots of people…10 supervisors for every worker at least, heehee.
I digress from the political soapbox.
Today was very much like last Wednesday…a strong morning and then a move down into the close. Now if we can just replicate the two days after last Wednesday, which, if you remember, were 2 very strong up days, we could have a very nice opex week.
Moody’s finally got around to downgrading Greece today….something everyone already knew. So what’s next? Announcing tomorrow that BP has clean-up expenses? What the $%@&*!
UCO had a nice run with oil this morning, but moved back down in the afternoon along with stocks. I’m still bullish on commodities in general and oil specifically. Here’s some reading that helps me with my bullish sentiment. The prez’s speech Tuesday night may help also.
Futures this evening still hanging around breakeven. C’mon bulls, just do it!
Futures markets, along with Asia markets, are starting off in happy mode. We may just get back to the upper channel on my S&P charts at about 1106. Of course it’s early evening and we still have to have Europe open up, but so far if “feels” good!
Oil is moving up also and will help my UCO position. I’m looking hard at adding some other commodity ETFs this week: DYY DAG GRU DBA. A lot will depend on the US dollar and the euro of course.
And don’t forget it’s options expiration week. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Dow was down big in 2008 after being up 5 years in a row 2003-2007 for June expiration week.
Hang on, we’re in for another ride. 
Last year in March, the S&P dropped down to 666 and it started a great bull run. Well, today, the Russell 2000 hit 666 as well. How about it….the start of another bull run?
I was stutter clicking today, afraid to go long, but my best wins are when I’m afraid to buy. Today was one of the best days I’ve had trading the ES to the long side. I also added some UCO C GTF….yes, to the long side. Position sizes are not large, but I will add to them if….no, when, they take off.
Of course today’s heavy selling into the close gives me some trepidation, but I think we’re close to a bounce, if not a more sustained up move. While you’re waiting, here’s some notes to look over:
Commodities — the Crash You Didn’t Hear
Conspiracy of Banks Rigging States Came With Crash
Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average Nearing February Lows
Jobless Claims tomorrow morning and optione expiration on Friday. Buckle up, time for a ride!
As I tweeted today, a down Friday equals an up Monday! And that has held for an entire year. Also Stock Trader’s Almanac said “Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 21.” …which makes it 20 out of 22 now. But that’s not all, “May Expiration Friday, Dow up 5 of last 6! This could be a good week.
The market is sure spastic, but I’m still looking for some pressure to the upside, as could be seen this afternoon. That was a big move off the lows. But again, futures are showing their negative side….but then again, China hasn’t opened yet. And don’t forget yesterday’s big overnight reversal.
I added to my UCO position as I’m still looking for support around $10. It did overshoot, so I added. I have a stop under today’s low now. Here’s a couple of articles I found today on oil:
Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite the Gulf Spill
China Studies Using FX Reserves to Exchange for Oil
And another interesting story:
How P&G Plunge Derailed One Investor
Ok, I better update my TCnet and do some scans!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
