Tag Archive for 'UCO'

Inflation is good

Published on September 28, 2010, 8:35 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

The economic reports this morning were not good, and thus the market rallies! A bad economy guarantees that the Fed will be performing some quantitative easing pretty quick…which ewventually gets us into inflation. More money at low interest makes its way into the market…making the market go up. But, Why is deflation bad?

Today I traded more transactions than I ever had in one day, clearing out a lot of positions that I had strung along for quite a while. DRYS QTWW FCEL NSM AMKR and a few I got just yesterday and today XRT IWM. Now I traded IWM puts all day long today (6 times) with 66% being profitable winners. :mrgreen:

Overnight I’m holding UCO TBT C and puts in both IWM and GLD….small positions in all except for C, got lots of C in stock and calls, picking it up here and there on dips for the last 5 months. One day I’ll cash out.

Tomorrow is a no news day except for oil inventories at 10:30AM EST….thus the UCO purchase today. Besides that we’ll be looking to Asia and Europe to set the tone for Wednesday. Keep in mind that the cloud over Europe has reappeared, especially in Ireland and Portugal, so watch out for that. Otherwise, happy trading, but be careful out there :!:

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5 more days

Published on September 23, 2010, 11:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , .

Yeppers! Only 5 more trading days left in September. That means the 4th quarter starts a week from tomorrow. Have you started your Christmas shopping yet? Well, fund and money managers will need some money to start so watch for a lot of window dressing in the week to come.

My late day yesterday and pre-market oil plays worked out well today. Still holding on to some USO calls and a couple shares of UCO.

I won’t harp on volume …I guess the “new normal” average volume is not about 10-20% less than what I always thought was average volume.

I’m not sure if we have had enough of a pullback….I think so. The S&P, along with the SPY, did close below the August highs. We’ll have to see on Friday if we pop back up through or feel around in the gutter for more. If we do get a down opening, I’ll look to nibble on some Bull ETFs like SPY SSO TNA BGU and the like. Watch out for 2 reports Friday morning: Durable Goods and New Home Sales.

“The National Bureau of Economic Research announced the recession actually ended in 2009. What idiots we were! So that recession you think you’re in, that’s as imaginary as the job you used to have.”

“What they don’t tell you, the next recession started in July of last year.” – Jay Leno

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Woe is me

Published on September 23, 2010, 9:07 am in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I had about 24 hours of hardware and Internet issues…all while trying to trade and attended an online webinar….those things don’t mix!

That also didn’t allow me to update my trading journal. For the past 18 months, I’ve been keeping a journal in Microsoft’s OneNote. While I jot down all my trades, I also write about what I’m feeling at the time, my reasons for buying, profit and stop targets. While it feels therapeutic during the day, the real value comes each weekend when I not only review the weeks entries, but also review some entries from months before…especially comparing recent winners and losers with “old” winners and losers.

I digress. The markets were pretty mixed up on Wednesday. Oil really got slapped around. At the end of the day I thought I’d nibble on some UCO and nibbled a little more in the pre-market this morning…average cost 8.65…we’ll see. May also look into some USO calls at the open.

Porbably a big eco number at 10AM…Existing Home Sales….also Leading Indicators. A pullback is not a bad thing…we just want to stay above the S&P’s June and August highs…Maybe a little poke-through, but nothing drastic.

Good Luck and happy trading :!:

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Oils well that ends well

Published on September 10, 2010, 8:53 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Not much you can say about today except….oil, oil and oil! Which meant that UCO USO ERX were the place to be. And of course the calls I bought yesterday were golden.

Speakin’ of gold, it didn’t do so well today. Sure it closed in the green, but it took a dive. And if you look at the daily chart, it has a bearish evening star candle pattern. Better watch out!

Oh yeah, and the volume today just sucked. Can’t say more than that.

I’ll have my weekend reading out soon! Have a great weekend. :mrgreen:

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Slick oil

Published on August 25, 2010, 10:34 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

One of those weird days when gold, oil and the dollar, along with stocks, were up! As expected Durable Goods and the New Home sales sucked. Unexpected was the big oil inventories build-up, which sunk oil prices. But, like the last time this happened in late May, traders saw opportunity and started buying oil futures. And like it has done all year, oil led a move to the upside for stocks.

Keep an eye on oil to see which way we go stockwise. If oil continues its bravery, watch UCO USO and ERX.

Semiconductors also had some oomph in its step, most likely with the help of AAPL and INTC, but also watch XLK and SMH.

The crash for the day belongs to golfer Jim Furyk: Jim Furyk is disqualified from Barclays for missing pro-am tee time. Gee if he traveled more often he would know wbout hotel wake-up calls! :cry:

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Almost a really good day

Published on August 17, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.

There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 8O

I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.

Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.

Happy trading!

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Looked scary for a while

Published on June 21, 2010, 10:28 pm in Charts, reading and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I didn’t like that move today…a 200 point range on the Dow…and closing near where it opened. Yes, another Doji day (open and close nearly identical) for the Dow. That’s four in a row. The Dow ran up and kissed its 50ma and then retracted for the rest of the day. But y’know, it wasn’t panicky, it wasn’t fast and it wasn’t with any large volume. So we closed right about where we closed on Friday. No big deal really! Tomorrow will say more….unless of course we close at the same place again.

The S&P candle is uglier than the Dow, a big bearish engulfing candlestick, but it still held 1110, its 200-day moving average. We haven’t given anything back since we bounced off 1050 two weeks ago.

Oil almost made it to $80. I unloaded some UCO, but as it turns out I should have unloaded it all. I’m still looking for a nudge of $83 or around the 200-day moving average, but I don’t know how fast that will happen. I guess we need to breakthrough the 50ma before hoping for that.

While I’m hoping for that (remember, hope rhymes with dope), here’s something to look over:

See you in the market! 8)

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Groundhog Day?

Published on June 17, 2010, 9:51 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Today was just like yesterday! Yes, boring, but still showing confusion and consolidation, and again another doji. Candlesticks say we need a confirmation candle to tell us which way the market will go…but all we got was a “duh!” Which way do we go?

Oil got slapped around today, but considering that move from $69.50 to $78 in just 2 weeks, it too was due for some consolidation. Gold had a great day, breaking out through the May highs. The US dollar had a down day but may be looking for a move up. If it goes up the stock market goes crap. :cry:

I got a few coins out of TZA in the early morning, but then just stood still for the markets to do whatever they wanted to do. I’m still sitting long and cash….and the long part has a hairline trigger!

Quadruple-witching options expiration day on Friday! And no economic data reports nor any earnings reports may make for a dull opex. The action probably comes back next week.

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So far, so good

Published on June 16, 2010, 11:37 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

I can’t ever remember the markets actually doing what I thought they would do! The S&P put in a doji day,as did the Dow, one red and one green. They both are still hanging above their respective 200 day moving averages. Considering the ugly news we had in the morning, bad housing, bad building permits and bad FDX guidance, you would think we would crash. But the markets persisted and came out a winner.

Oil had some bad news also with an inventory build, but oil shook it off and moved higher. My UCO position did well accordingly.

This rally has happened on decreasing volume, which by many accounts they say, is not a real rally. Technically all looks in place to keep on moving up…the break of the 200ma, bouncing off fibonacci retracement, MACDs moving up and all kinds of other indicators. But, and there’s always a but, the markets are very news oriented, and it doesn’t take much of a news blurb or even a rumor to send them tumbling down…again.

Was today enough rest? I don’t think so. I’m still looking for another breakeven to down day and again I’m not looking for much, just a little rest. So I’m mostly long with a bit of hedging via TZA. I’ll see how long I hold it.

See you in the trading arena!

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A-Team

Published on June 15, 2010, 9:22 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

I love it when a plan comes together. :-)    OpEx week is crazy anyways, but we’re still following the mold cast last week…a strong day that collapsed followed by 2 strong up days…1 down, 1 to go! My gut though says enough is enough, markets take a rest maybe….if not down.

We also broke through the 1050-1106 channel as well as the 200ma in the S&P. Of course we need to see some follow-through on Wednesday, but a small consolidation day won’t burst my bubble.

Oil had a very strong day and brought up all the oil ETFs that have been slapped around: UCO ERX USO. Now we will have to see what the world thinks now that the president has spoken. Don’t you all feel better now that he has solved all the problems? Unemployment should go down since he is forming a commission to figure out what happened, another commission to plan how to clean up the entire gulf region and yet another commission to dole out BP’s money. And like any other government department, these will take lots of people…10 supervisors for every worker at least, heehee.

I digress from the political soapbox.

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