Tag Archive for 'TZA'

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A mixed bag of indexes

Published on April 21, 2010, 10:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

The day started off giddy with AAPL excitement, but soon tamed down and moved back and forth between red and green. All the indexes, except for the NYSE, closed barely green. After the close some bad reports from QCOM AMGN and EBAY sent futures moving to the downside…and they continue down thru the evening.

With the big up move in the Q’s thanks to AAPL, I thought I’d nibble on some puts, along with adding to my TZA position. The SPY looks like it may have formed a double-top over the past several days. Maybe tomorrow we see a confirmation of failed top. Also note that we continue to have increased volume only to the downside.

Tomorrow we have Jobless Claims and lots of earnings reports. If neither of those have any good news, we may get real ugly. Here’s some more reading to cheer you up:
Greek Workers to Strike Today as Papandreou Faces Bond Rout

Do Bank of America’s Blowout Earnings Actually Blow?

See you tomorrow on the battlefield….or maybe I’ll just sleep-in. 8)

Unbelievable….really

Published on April 19, 2010, 9:03 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

If you told me this morning that the Dow was going to end up 70+ points, I would have called you an ass. Turns out it was me…I mean the ass part. Unbelievable that the Dow made a 120 point u-turn! The S&P had a similar strange day. GS made a crazy u-turn also. The Russell had some semblance of sanity closing in the red.

The big trading volume was still on the downside, as was the advance/decline line and the A/D volume. The new 52-week highs today was way low for all indexes, turning both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages downward. So we had the lowest number of new highs and the highest number of new lows. Click on the chart to see it bigger.

I took profits from TZA and also the SPY puts I was still carrying. I’m still holding some TZA because I was expecting some more downside follow-thru! Again, the move up was uncalled for. 8O

This week and next are the busiest earnings reporting weeks and this week has a lot of biggies, IBM today, AAPL and GS tomorrow. IBM had a good report but sold off afterwards. As I had mentioned before, I think the good reports are priced in so either good or bad they selloff. Here’s more good news: U.S. Bankruptcies Spike 35% in One Month

The details are an even clearer warning sign that both the “bottom” in the U.S. housing market, and the “job growth” reported by the Bureau of Labor Propaganda are nothing but the “smoke and mirrors” of private sector shills, and/or government propagandists – dutifully reported by the mainstream media-parrots.

Gives you the warm and fuzzies, don’t it?

I told you so :-)

Published on April 16, 2010, 8:47 pm in Trading. 1 Comment Tags: , , , , , , , .

We’ve been looking for an excuse to correct this market and today we found one. If the market indicators weren’t on sell signals already, maybe the market wouldn’t have reacted to GS so badly. It’s not just banks that went down today. Either way, I suspect no more campaign contributions for this administration from GS. I’m also gonna venture that GS bought its own April puts ahead of the news and will report a stellar quarter next week. GS volume was 7 times above its average trading.

Other good news today: Unemployment rises in 24 states in March according to the Labor Dept. All the big earnings report companies sucked, but not as bad as GS’s surprise: GOOG BAC GE ISRG were all down big.

For the week the Dow ends up .19%, the S&P down .18%, NYSE down .57%, the Russell up 1.7% and Nasdaq Composite up 1.1%. So the high beta stocks are still doing okay, but the blue chips suffered. I expect next week to be down for the small caps.

Should Small Investors Jump Into Stocks?

And oh yes, the SPY puts, VIX calls and TZA did their jobs today!

TGIF

Published on April 8, 2010, 11:19 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: .

You have to admit last year was a crappy year for everyone, including retailers. So what’s the big whoop that the retailers are having such good year-over-year sales increases?

No scheduled news on Friday, so unless some geo-political infarction happens, or someone opens their mouth at an inopportune time, it “should” be a quiet day….but when was the last time the market did anything it “should?” :lol:

I’ve been moderating the Hit and Run Candlestick chat room the last couple of days so I haven’t been trading as much. I’ve got my usual positions but not very active. I like commenting and moderating the room because I find I learn more when I try to explain a position or interpret a chart. It makes you responsible and many times a light turns on and I “see the light.”

Although I took some profits in TZA this morning, I held on to some, thinking the day would continue to the downside…but no. So I’m underwater in the remaining position…for now. But remember it’s options expiration next week, so get ready for another wild ride.

P.S. This moving to a new website is a pain in the arse!

The time draws near

Published on April 7, 2010, 10:33 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

This was an ugly day…low volume rallies and high volume breakdowns. Are we heading for a correction or a crash? I can sure ask the question, but I have no idea about the answer…I can only play ‘em one day at a time.

I’m still sticking with my bearish positions via TZA and TWM along with some QQQQ puts and VIX calls…and boy was that stance a pain today. But it worked out by the end of the session. Patience pays. It was a great 10-year auction today, but offset by an ugly consumer credit report. The credit report won…or is that lost…with all the indexes ending in the red.

The worry over PIGS is back…just in time for an ECB Monetary Policy meeting on Thursday. And back in the homeland we have Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, a 30-year bond auction and last but not least, Tiger returns to the game. So if traders are not busy worrying about interest rates or growing debt, they’ll be watching TV. 8O

Green Monday, what else is new?

Published on April 5, 2010, 9:27 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

It was such a low volume day I think anyone buying more than 1000 shares of a stock actually moved the market! 8)   The ES didn’t hit 1 million contracts until after the cash close. Sure Europe was closed as was about half of the Asian markets, but still, I usually look for 2 million by 3PM EST. Trading was slower than a Christmas eve!

I digress. The indexes closed in the green but it was a very boring day. I covered half of my UNG calls for 62% and half of my DRYS calls for 23%. My VIX calls are about worthless, but I still have 9 trading days to see if they perk up. TZA is looking pretty crappy but I added a few shares near the close. In keeping with my bearish bent on the markets I also added QQQ puts and TWM calls. I’ll see how far that gets me this week. Oh, and VG which I bought about a month ago, finally turned green.

It’s reading stuff like the following that gets me shaking my head and wondering “why?”
Huge 25% hike for small businesses kills New York jobs.

Office vacancy rate hits 16-year high

Tomorrow we get FOMC minutes and find out how the Treasury’s 3-year note auction behaves. Today’s auction was pretty good, with the 10-year interest rate hopping above 4% briefly, but did not cause any consternation in the equities. Let’s see if the world returns to trading on Tuesday.

I’m confused but not alone

Published on April 4, 2010, 9:16 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

If you’ve been making the rounds you have to be in the group of dazed and confused. I’d say about 75% of the blogs I read are saying:

We’re oversold, fatigued, low volume, too many call buyers, bullish/bearish/neutral, [add your own words]. We should have a correction here but we could still move up/sideways a bit….or a small correction before new highs…or new highs before a small correction.

The other 25% are busy with their new iPads. :lol:

My opinion is that the news has not been good. Sure, markets were happy with the jobless claims and non-farm payroll reports, but you need to review the last 18 months of reports. Let me put it this way: if you put a cup of sugar into the ocean, would it taste sweet? $%@&* No!

On the flip side, my short positions have been getting chopped into teeny tiny bits and fed to the bulls. It’s not only the shorts but the longs also. I try one direction and get stopped…try the other way and get stopped again. I’m about 80% in a cash position and have a small short position via TZA and small long positions in DRYS and UNG.

Monday brings us ISM Non-Manufacturing and US Pending Home Sales, Australia has an interest rate decision and the UK markets are closed….and the futures are all gung ho green with the ES up 6 points from Thursday’s close. Indexes may still show a holiday-like volume so I’ll keep my cash position for another day.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Easter!

Is it time yet?

Published on March 29, 2010, 9:44 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Y’know…for the market to correct. I’ve been preparing for it, but it never comes. Every time the bears make a play, the bulls trample them. But, the volume of bulls keeps getting lower and lower. Monday continued it habit of a green up day.

Did you notice this morning that the indexes opened up and so did the VIX? Usually one is up and the other down. That got me worried that something was going to happen…but it didn’t. Seems like cash is probably the best position to be in, but I keep nibbling on the short side with QQQQ puts and the inverse ETF TZA. I’m also on the long side with DRYS…so I guess I go both ways. :oops:

After hours trading today was wild. AAPL and VZ busted to the upside when the Wall Street Journal reported AAPL to make an iPhone for the Verizon network. Of course this hurt both RIMM and T which went the other way. Another move was GNVC when they announced a failure of a Phase 3 trial…the stock dove 75%….traders couldn’t get out fast enough. 8O

Tuesday we get the Home Price Index and the Consumer Confidence Index along with a spattering of earnings reports. Let’s see if any of those can get us a turnaround Tuesday….to the downside.

Here’s some reading that should show us the way….
Consequences Of Health Care: Valuations

Massive Deficits, Debt Overhang and Rising Bond Yields

Raise Taxes and Cut Services? Why Not Stop Unnecessary Bailouts, Unnecessary Wars and Unnecessary Interest Costs Instead?

Nice Ride

Published on March 25, 2010, 8:49 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The day was not at all what I had been expecting….but it sure ended that way! A weak dollar overnight got things rolling. BBY earnings report juiced it, along with QCOM, and then the Jobless claims report was the icing. We gapped up above previous highs, sold off a bit, consolidated then rallied. All morning it was buy the dips. But the buy-on-the-dip crowd was slapped hard by the end of the day. I’m not complaining, but I totally don’t understand today’s action.

I did panic some and sold off some TZA calls for a small loss and some TZA stock for some small gains….ending at breakeven. I continued to hold the remainder and was rewarded by the end of the day. I’m still holding overbight along with VIX calls. I hope Friday morning is better than today. :mrgreen:

And look at that uptick in volume in this 15-minute chart of the SPY. It just repeats what has been happening all month….up moves on low volume and down moves on higher volume.
Advance/decline volume went from 4:1 positive down to -2:1 negative….that’s a wicked drop. The question now is this a precursor to something or just a late afternoon anomaly? This evening futures are down slightly from the close, but they were last night also. We’ll have to wait and see what Asia and Europe has going….and maybe Trichet from the ECB can say something stupid again.

So it’s Friday before a holiday week. We’ve got GDP and Consumer Sentiment reports…not much in earnings reports, although the ORCL report this evening may carry over into the morning putting a damper on the QQQQ. Trade well!

Why is this market climbing?

Published on March 23, 2010, 6:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

I don’t know why, but to assign some sort of logic to the market is futile! Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendat says W T F . . .

I got stuck between my longs and my shorts. I didn’t make money in either direction today, so I’m sitting overnite at about 40% long and 60% short….Long via DRYS VG GNVC and short via TZA VIX calls and QQQQ puts. GS wasn’t able to catch a bid all day. Usually you see GS leading the market, but it was divergent today. So will GS catch up to the market or will the market follow GS down?

This double top in the SPY shows some possibilities of a reversal….and there’s still that unfilled gap area from a couple weeks ago. 

Some news coming out tomorrow: Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales along with crude inventories.

Here’s more “good news” that should keep this market going up:
Underemployment Hits in Mid-March

Why the U.S.-China Currency Brawl Puts Global Recovery at Risk

Yes, I’m being facetious. 8)