Tag Archive for 'TRIN'

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Published on September 9, 2011, 9:42 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Y’know on Thursday we had two highly anticipated events. First there was a speech from Bernanke. Those of us watching the markets for a response from the Fed were sadly disappointed as stocks tumbled into the close. So I guess the Fed, or Ben specifically, is just setting traders up to take action at their next meeting Sept 21st.

But then the big one from President Obama took center stage Thursday night. He unveiled his jobs growth plan. As usual, he spoke well, but it may take some time for investors to research the true value of these concepts. And more so, how the hell do you get a congress to make the ideas law?

Since it will take a bit for traders to fully digest BO’s speech, they decided to regurgitate all over the markets as the indexes trended down all day….A/D volumes down big, TRIN at over +5, Dow down over 300 points…. the final verdict will become clearer over the next couple weeks.

Now let’s hope nothing crazy happens over the 9/11 weekend!

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It’s the economy stupid!

Published on August 2, 2011, 6:56 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

We had the biggest down day this year, although the volume was not that big. I would have rather seen a big woosh down and have buyers come in instead of this slow, grinding death…on every little pop, a barrage of bears come in and sell, sell, sell! It was one of the ugliest days I’ve seen…add in 7 down days in a row…8 for the Dow…the markets are very, very oversold.

For as crazy as the market has been the past week, the VIX has been fairly tame.You would think the VIX would have shown some additional upside movement. S&P is now negative for the year. I don’t expect it to stay there, but still a significant accomplishment…for the bears.

The Arms Index, also known as TRIN says: A TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market is in trouble! The TRIN closed at 4.64 on Tuesday!

Wow…staggering…S&P down almost 100 points…the Dow down 900 points…all in a few days! Screw the debt-ceiling, it’s the economy stupid!

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Amazing

Published on June 1, 2011, 8:44 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

After having one of the best days this year yesterday, I had the worst today! Amazing! I took profits on many positions yesterday. Sure I was expecting a pullback today, but not a crash! Just like tomorrow I expect a bounce, but not a 30 point bounce in the S&P….but you never know.

I can’t remember ever seeing the TRIN close this high…4.22. A close above 2 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of ten. If no bounce, the market is in trouble.

Boy, the financials really got a bitch-slap today. Looks at those candles on XLF FAS UYG and IAI….ugly! And speaking of ugly, look at TBT. I got stopped out of many of my positions but will live to fight another day.

A lot more jobs data coming the next 2 days. Will it be a rollercoaster or just straight down?

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Monday, Monday

Published on May 23, 2011, 10:56 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Monday Monday, can’t trust that day. News was slow in the US but the news from Europe started the downward trend early and was reinforced with the Italy downgrade later in the day. The dollar went up, everything else went down…except for bonds of course. Advance/Decline volume was way down at -9:1

Dick Arms, the creator of The Arms Index, also known as TRIN, says: a TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. The TRIN closed at 2.23 today. We’ll see how this works out on Tuesday.

Signing off before the thunderstorm knocks me out!

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Storms a brewing

Published on December 13, 2010, 6:57 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

I’m worrying about keeping my electricity and Internet connection going. Got everything prepared as Northeast Ohio gets ready for another storm overnight! The roughest December I can remember…at least the most snow.

But that’s not the storm I’m thinking about. Today was the definition of volatility…. Shows you what a Monday on low volume can do. No matter which momentum indicator you use, these markets are overbought. Sentiment is way too bullish and have you looked at those Put/Call ratios? The ISEE was over 200 on Thursday and Friday…the TRIN is way too low…the Put/Call Equity Volume ratio was under .50 for several days….this market is waiting to do something…..a correction soon!

I’m sitting about 20% short, 5% long and 75% cash….this market has got to show itself eventually. Did it say something in the last hour today? Strange Brew. Let’s see what China does tonight. 8)

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That was unexpected

Published on October 5, 2010, 10:53 pm in Opinions, Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Did not see this one coming, and it’s not because of my handicapped technology, but because of a sneak attack, the Bank of Japan decided to lower its rates from almost zero to just about zero. Duh! That’s going to help? They’ve been trying this for years…so even though I thought it was stupid, the marketplace said, “Let’s borrow money from Japan and buy stocks!” And buy they did, there wasn’t a seller to be found! Oh well, I’m never wrong on a call… but sometimes I’m way too early!

Two of the indicators I check at the end of the day…$TRIN and $PVCE…those are the TradeStation symbols for the Arms Index and the Put/Call Volume Ratio of Equities….both closed WAY too low today! The Arms index, or TRIN, says that a close under 0.50 results in selling the next day. Today it closed at 0.28. Watch out, No selling? Bears are in trouble. $PCVE closed today at .25….Under .50 puts a ”ceiling” on the market. Look to close longs and go short. We’ll see how that advice works….

Lots of news over the next three days, plus earnings season starts again with AA on Thursday! Tomorrow we get Mortgage Applications, Challenger Report, ADP Employment Report, and Crude Inventories. Then more job stuff on Thursday with Jobless Claims and then Friday…kaboom!…the NFP report. Oh yeah…then we go into OpEx week. Won’t this be wild?

Happy Trading!

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4 in a row with no relief!

Published on June 24, 2010, 7:29 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

In my 10+ years of trading, it has never been tougher than trading this week. Both banks and oil led us down. Banks kept us down while oil looks like it’s trying to recover. The only thing I traded today was ES, the S&P emini. Looking over the trades, not one was more than 5 minutes and several were under 120 seconds in duration! Oh my! Sure it was a down day, but all my trades were long.

Check this out….you would think we would go a lot lower with a VIX of 349!!

Sure it’s a bad tick, but I thought I’d grab a picture of it just to remember. :)

The TRIN again closed high at 2.99. Remember what I said a couple days ago when the TRIN closed at 3.82…The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble…..and we got NO bounce…and yes we’re in trouble.

So we’re down 4 days in a row. A 3 or 4% correction is no big whoop, but that is assuming tomorrow the markets get back on track and show some bullishness. If not, the bear is back and we may be on our way to some new lows.

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Fade the Gap

Published on June 22, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Fading the opening gap seems to be the thing to do the past two days! The S&P eminis were a total chopfest during the morning. But then the bears took the reigns and bye-bye market. Volume was a bit heavier today than yesterday, but it wasn’t a panic. Yes we had a confirmation of yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern, we lost the 200-day moving average, and we cussed up a storm all afternoon…What the $%@&*!

Many indicators have quickly gone from overbought to oversold. The TRIN closed at 3.82. The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. So I guess we have to wait until tomorrow to see how it goes.

Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .

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Advance/Decline and PIGSHIT!

Published on June 6, 2010, 8:07 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The Advance/Decline volume was amazing on Friday….just look at that number…-124:1. You don’t see that very often :!: And the TRIN got up pretty high also: 13.53 at the close, it was even higher during the day. Take a look at this chart.

Now the TRIN I take with a grain of salt. It does not seem to be as accurate since the advent of reverse ETFs. But, according to the book The Arms Index, a TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Markets are in trouble. My gut says we’re in trouble. :-(

The newest acronym I found this weekend? the PIGSHIT economies – Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Turkey. Now, doesn’t that say it all!

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