Tag Archive for 'TBT'

Let’s try it again

Published on August 11, 2011, 11:31 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

We recovered everything we lost on Wednesday, plus a little bit more. During the day we even went higher than Tuesday’s high and close. There’s only one thing missing…a follow-through day! We haven’t strung together 2 up days in a row since early July.

It looked scary in the premarket as again trouble in Europe rattled traders. But rumors and facts started growing throughout the day that got traders juiced…although it was the lowest volume day of the week. But it also was the 4th day of 500+ range in the Dow…WTF?

The banks, after getting bitch-slapped yesterday, were the frontrunners to the upside today. Gold took a big dive as did U.S. Treasuries…and thus, interest rates via TBT went up.

Let’s see if we can string 2 in a row!

“The stock market had its biggest one-day drop since 2008. Remember how the experts said we had to raise the debt ceiling or the market would crash? Well, they were half right.” — Jimmy Kimmel

This should be interesting…

Published on August 7, 2011, 8:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

After a 400 point range in the Dow, it ended up only 60 points. All the other indexes closed in the red. WTF?

Friday looked like massive margin calls and forced liquidations after the big run down on Thursday. Rumors began to circulate during the day that S&P was going to do what it finally did after hours…downgrade US debt. If the S&P knocked down the US debt, don’t they also knock down the holders of that debt?

Here’s the remaining countries with a triple A rating: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. How far can they go with having “superior” debt? Buffett Says Cutting U.S. Rating Was Mistake, Sees No Recession.

The first reaction I had (as if anyone cared) is pass off all the US “peace-keeping” duties to these countries and let them take care of “us.” And quit “loaning” money to other countries. And quit giving money to people that haven’t put any money into the pot (read as welfare) …freeloaders! Sorry, I digress.

Here’s the S&P Ratings Report http://stk.ly/nzkwsU. Interesting reading.

Ok, back to trading. I’m definitely going to tread lightly. Futures this evening gapped down big…ES down 35 points, Dow down 325 pts. They have recovered about a third since the 6PM open. I’ve put bonds and the VIX on my short list via TBT calls and VIX puts. The metals may be a good short also via DZZ and ZSL, but I’ll put them in second place because I’ve been burned by them before.

Although only the Globex is open, Asia markets should open soon…and so far, it’s a pretty tame open for the past 2 hours. Maybe this was all baked in the previous two weeks?

Good luck on Monday and thanks for reading.

P.S. Just remember, if the Dow falls more than 30 percent (3600 pts), the market will close! Don’t think we get there, but keep it in mind?

Grecian Formula

Published on June 29, 2011, 11:49 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

As soon as the news hit from Greece, it looked like a “sell the news” event. The markets wavered for a bit, but soon recovered its bullish ways. There was good news from the housing report also.

It was great to see TBT finally pop…4 days in a row. Perhaps bond traders are leaving for the stock market?

And even though volume was up today, I expect to see declining volume heading into the long weekend.

Greece is the word

Published on June 15, 2011, 9:47 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

We gave back much more today than we took yesterday. And boy was it volatile. But what can you expect from OpEx week and a market that reacts to any kind of news out there?

We also had the biggest volume day in 3 months! SPY volume was double its average and ES traded over three and a half million contracts. Advance/Decline volume was -12:1 to the downside. Banks/financials hurt bad and interest rates took a pounding also…just look at XLF and TBT.

And let’s not forget all that Greece and Euro news coming out every 5 minutes and changing every 10 minutes. Escalating protests, mix in some opex, jobless claims and housing starts, we should have a real party on Thursday! Be careful out there. Remember, sitting on your hands is a position :D

Bulls still alive

Published on June 14, 2011, 10:46 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

There isn´t much to do during US session if you’re trading the ES, pretty much all the action is done in the globex hours. After a nice big opening gap, the markets traded in a fairly narrow range, meandering up and down.

Interest rates caught a bid today as noted by TBT also moving up. That was the only action I was in today.

Looking for a little slow-down on Wednesday…maybe a narrow-range day for a little bit of consolidation. You can never tell in options expiration week.

2 years of Greek tennis

Published on June 2, 2011, 9:35 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I’m real tired of hearing about all of Greece’s debt problems…fixed, not fixed, restructured…rumors, news and reactions. Today was like a tennis game…back and forth…up and down. All the indexes hung around breakeven…red, green, up and down. Does the U.S. stock market really depend on the Greece economy? What ever happened to Portugal? PIGS.

My remaining TBT positions, Jan 33 calls, were very happy today, after several different positions got stopped out yesterday. Financials also were up today, although, like the indexes went up and down all day long.

Non-farm Payroll report on Friday will confirm or deny ADP’s Wednesday report….which started the ball rolling down. Either way, expect a knee-jerk in both directions before deciding on which way the markets want to end the week.

Amazing

Published on June 1, 2011, 8:44 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

After having one of the best days this year yesterday, I had the worst today! Amazing! I took profits on many positions yesterday. Sure I was expecting a pullback today, but not a crash! Just like tomorrow I expect a bounce, but not a 30 point bounce in the S&P….but you never know.

I can’t remember ever seeing the TRIN close this high…4.22. A close above 2 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of ten. If no bounce, the market is in trouble.

Boy, the financials really got a bitch-slap today. Looks at those candles on XLF FAS UYG and IAI….ugly! And speaking of ugly, look at TBT. I got stopped out of many of my positions but will live to fight another day.

A lot more jobs data coming the next 2 days. Will it be a rollercoaster or just straight down?

Boy oh boy

Published on May 31, 2011, 9:12 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

What a wonderful start to the summer! It is a seasonally strong time. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Today, the day after Memorial Day, Dow has been up 8 of last 11…so the win streak continues. Tomorrow, first trading day of June, Dow up 10 of last 12. Let’s see if that continues also!

Sold out of QQQ this afternoon, but decided to hold on to SPY. Although I’ve got some winners, TBT is still a loser for me. Looks like low interest rates might be a catalyst for the next bull run.

And what’s going on with oil? You would think with the economy taking a double-dip that oil demand would decrease…but no! Still working its way up.

“Al Qaeda has been plotting attacks against oil tankers and refineries for years. Thank goodness that never happened. The price of gas would have skyrocketed.” — Jay Leno

Which way do we go?

Published on May 15, 2011, 9:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Over the last 10 days, 4 have been up and 6 down and the net change has been small, about 33 points in the S&P, or about 2%. We closed below a so-called support area of 1340 and another 2% will get us close to 1300. Futures are moving to the downside Sunday evening, along with early Asian markets.

Sure it’s long way to Monday morning, but the biggest moves in futures have been during the overnight lately, so I keep tabs on that, but it doesn’t always predict what will happen in the morning. I do like to trade the Globex because it’s slower than the US cash hours and I can practice futures trading with less emotion!

My TBT and XLF positions may be stopping out soon if interest rates and the banks don’t start moving up soon. Options expiration week should stir things up pretty good. We also have a lot of housing data this week along with FOMC meeting minutes. Volatility is always good for traders and am looking forward to it. Happy trading!

“I hear that you dropped some money on Wall Street. Were you a bull or a bear?”
“Neither, just a plain simple ass.”

Was that wild enough?

Published on May 12, 2011, 8:22 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Yesterday I said we should end the week in a wild way…I guess I just didn’t know how wild! After gapping down and moving down hard the first 30 minutes, the markets started reversing and really took off after the European bourses closed. Key reversal day?

At first I was really disappointed, and disillusioned, that my USO moved down hard also. First reaction was to bail, but it was a small position. So… I took a chance and doubled-down. It brought my average cost down and was quickly in the money after the reversal. I cashed out in the afternoon. Sure wish they all worked out that way. ;)

I also added some TBT Jan 35 calls figuring that rates have to go up somethime in the next 7 months! We’ve got some European GDP reports overnight before the US CPI and Consumer Sentiment. Go TBT!

And don’t forget….Friday the 13th!