Tag Archive for 'SPY'

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Merger Monday

Published on February 7, 2011, 10:28 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Stocks gapped up in the morning and held those gains all day. Lots of good news via the M&A market, although volume was low. SPY volume was 35% below average daily volume. The VIX was up, which is a bit divergent since the markets were up also.

A slow week for economic data and earnings reports are thinning out…although we have CSCO later this week. Banks were strong today. The US dollar was a yo-yo.

Taking it slow and easy, watching charts and repeating to myself, “I don’t have to trade, I don’t have to trade!” 8)

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.” –Jesse Livermore

It’s nice to be short

Published on January 19, 2011, 9:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , .

…Short stocks that is :-) Moneymakers today were puts…in JPM SPY and SDS. Money losers were calls in V and TBT…but the shorts won dollar-wise.

Still playing with TWX and their internet connectivity! Yes it sucks, but I was online more than offline. I did see that GS and AXP did not have good news this morning…and the kick to the downside was on. And that was really good for my JPM puts…thank you.

Jobless claims tomorrow, along with Existing home sales and Leading indicators, will either continue the downtrend or turn it around.

Oh boy…this is getting fun!

I like my new telephone, my computer works just fine, my calculator is perfect, but Lord, I miss my mind! –Author Unknown

Boring again

Published on January 5, 2011, 10:41 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Yes it was another boring day, but it was a positive day for me, although my index shorts like SPY puts and SDS calls sunk during the day. I was saved by TBT and V longs and REE short. I ended up about 4% only because my long positions were stronger than my shorts. I guess that’s diversification. 8)

Employment numbers blew everyone out of the water! Those were then followed by good ISM numbers. And after all that good info, the market still was sluggish and boring on below average volume.

Now to see if Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls match today’s data.

Yawn!

Published on December 19, 2010, 9:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

As usual, the market ends Friday in a most confused state. SPY volume was 35% below the average day, much less an options expiration day! Indexes moved up and down and ended at breakeven…uneventful.

Not a jam-packed news week coming up, with U.S. economic reports coming out on Wednesday and Thursday. Volume will be decreasing each day, with Thursday the last trading day of the week. The markets will be closed Friday for the Christmas holiday.

Remember, you don’t HAVE to trade every day…and cash IS a position!

Finally!

Published on December 15, 2010, 9:41 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

After playing the short side for over a week, payoff finally arrived! After a small up move after the open, it was basically all downhill after that, closing near the lows of the day. I’m looking for some more downside on Thursday, but the question is if this is a correction or just some OpEx shennanigans? While I think a corection is on order, I also don’t think that this is it…yet.

After adding some today, I have a full position in QID now, along with SPY puts, YHOO puts, GLD puts and UUP calls…all in the green. My only red position is IWM puts which was the first position that I shorted last week and was probably a bit too early. But a little bit more market downside and I may at least get back to breakeven. Oh well, they aren’t all winners. :oops:

Futures are down slightly this evening but not with any enthusiasm. Housing Starts and Jobless Claims Thursday morning may set the tone for the day. Remember, options expiration is designed to take as much money from as many people as money managers can. So expect some wild gyrations!

“The tax cut deal means tax cuts for the rich and benefits for the unemployed. If you work for a living, you’re screwed.” – Jay Leno

Cut ‘n Paste

Published on December 14, 2010, 9:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

That’s what the Fed did on the FOMC rate decision…just copied it from the last meeting. That made for the most uneventful FOMC day! Usually there is wild swings, but it just sat there. Then when traders finally realized the Fed is still saying the economy stinks, everyone started selling. But that only brought the markets back to unchanged for the day.

Shorts are still working for me…a little short SPY, a little IWM via puts, and some short on the Qs via QID. Get in and get out, back in and back out….like a revolving door. If I was really talented I would go back and forth long and short, but I’m still looking for a bigger correction than a midday selloff. Maybe that’s about to start.

Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .

Weak Day

Published on December 7, 2010, 9:07 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

October Consumer Credit report came out at 3PM this afternoon, just after the Prez finished talking. Credit was up +$3.4 bln vs -$2.5 bln Briefing.com consensus. September revised to +$1.2 bln from +2.1 billion. So we are now hocking ourselves to the gills for one last nice Christmas? Or are we now making everyday living expenses on credit cards?

Volume was higher today, but 60% of that volume came from C. The government was unloading its stock. The volume on S&P futures and SPY was pretty close to normal….whatever that is.

It’s starting to feel like the markets are getting tired. Sure we made new highs today, but not very convincinglyand for not very long. We retreated as soon as news came out about looking deeper into inside trading and the credit info. But even before that the indexes were oversold and have been up for 4 of the past 5 days. We will get a pullback soon….the question is how much of a pullback!

I went deeper underwater today on all my short positions, but I just couldn’t make myself cover those positions. But, by the end of the day, those positions were making their way up and began breathing again. I’m still hanging in and still thinking a pullback is on its way…..famous last words! 8O

Free money!

Published on December 2, 2010, 7:53 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Tomorrow has the Non-Farm Payroll report so I took all the profits I could today. No matter what the number, NFP always brings volatility with it. ADP on Wednesday was good but Jobless Claims on Thursday was bad….so NFP is wavering either way.

After selling all my longs I started to nibble some shorts via SPY and IWM puts…but by the close I was under water. I’ll give it another day or two before I capitulate. 8O

We have made it back to the April highs but there’s still a little bit more to go to hit the November highs. Does that give us a double-top or do we breeze through to new highs? When there is so much printed, free money around the world, how can the bulls fail? They can’t, but boy wait until that inflation takes hold….bitch-slap!

When other people are greedy, I get fearful. When other people are fearful, I get greedy. When people are yelling, I’m selling. When people are crying, I’m buying. –Warren Buffet

Bad PIS

Published on November 29, 2010, 10:03 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

It was a trader’s day on Monday. The gap down was there as I thought and got out of the rest of the SPY puts. I then started buying QQQ calls, but they didn’t do much….until later in the afternoon. I was out of those by the close. Yes, a good day!

Futures were real happy Sunday night when Ireland got a bailout, but thinking about it overnight traders said…what about Portugal and Spain?…completing the bad PIS. So if Ireland gets saved, where does the money come for the other two? So futures came down overnight and continued for an hour after the cash open. But a bottom was hit and a base built for several hours until the climb up started. Sure the markets closed in the red but way up off the morning lows.

We get a few economic reports on Tuesday, inclusing Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. I’m sitting in cash now so I’ll just wait for the market to show itself. And don’t forget Friday brings us the monthly Employment report. 8)

Funny….What Do HFT Bots Fight About?

What’s up?

Published on November 28, 2010, 11:33 am in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Now that we are done with the festival of dead birds and undone trouser buttons, it’s time for shopping! And it looked good at the malls, but the markets were scared about Euro debt and Korean war. With the big gap down I thought my few remaining long positions would be toast…but no. Indexes ground upward giving me a chance to still get a decent profit.

For the rest of the day I nibbled on SPY puts on every rally thinking when everyone got back next week the market would continue down. But, with that huge selloff at the close I was able to take 13% on half the positions. Why not….it was a real gift-horse! Still kept a few puts just in case there’s a gap-down Monday morning.

So we had a down day on a historical good day….days around holidays are always green! Even more interesting is how the S&P futures and VIX acted after the cash close.


As the S&P futures crashed after the cash close, volatility moved up!

So, what will next week bring? Was Friday’s close a premonition? We only have 2 more trading days in November and only 24 more trading days in 2010.
There should be some tax selling while volume starts to dwindle…through Chanukah, Christmas and New Years! Oh, and one more options expiration. Volatility should come into play…but isn’t that what the VIX is telling us?

Season’s Greetings and Happy Trading!