Tag Archive for 'SPY'

Unexpected?

Published on August 8, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

I thought the bounce would start sometime by the close, but you can’t always get what you want! And the selling in the ES futures continued into the evening. ES has sunk below 1100 last time I looked.

I did nibble on some TBT calls at a time I thought they may have bottomed, but, no such luck. I’m still sitting in them, underwater. So you can say I had a bad day.

It was an incredible day….The VIX advanced 50%, and although I was looking to short the VIX, I sat on my hands. SPY down 7.5%, yes in one day. The Russell was down almost 9% and the “winner” today was the Dow, down “only” 5.5%.

Some sector ETFs really got bruised: FAS the 3X financial bull ETF was down 30%, so the financial XLF was down over 10%. But Bank of America, BAC was down 22%…ouch! Oil and technology weren’t pretty at all.

So is it time for Turnaround Tuesday? China has some announcements overnight and those European PIIGS are still a pain in the ass. And let’s not forget, it’s time for FOMC meeting and announcement. Gee, what are the chances of a rate hike on Tuesday? :roll:

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Still going

Published on July 1, 2011, 12:19 am in Trading. Closed Tags: .

The bull continues as we get 4 days in a row. Getting a little scary as markets get short-term overbought and at least a small pullback is in order. But can we really go down on the last trading day before the 4th of July? Happy 4th of July!

I was out most of the day so I only got one trade off in the morning….SPY calls whcih I took for 10% but could have had 40% if I would have been able to stick with it. Oh well, better safe than sorry!

Happy long weekend everybody!

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Boy oh boy

Published on May 31, 2011, 9:12 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

What a wonderful start to the summer! It is a seasonally strong time. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Today, the day after Memorial Day, Dow has been up 8 of last 11…so the win streak continues. Tomorrow, first trading day of June, Dow up 10 of last 12. Let’s see if that continues also!

Sold out of QQQ this afternoon, but decided to hold on to SPY. Although I’ve got some winners, TBT is still a loser for me. Looks like low interest rates might be a catalyst for the next bull run.

And what’s going on with oil? You would think with the economy taking a double-dip that oil demand would decrease…but no! Still working its way up.

“Al Qaeda has been plotting attacks against oil tankers and refineries for years. Thank goodness that never happened. The price of gas would have skyrocketed.” — Jay Leno

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What was that?

Published on April 27, 2011, 9:51 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

So I was listening in on the historic FOMC news conference and I thought I heard Ben say….So the better the economy the lower the dollar will go? Did he really say that? When the dollar is worthless we should be having a great economy? I almost yelled out sitting in the jury room…oops.

Here’s another crazy…SLV the silver ETF, traded more volume than the SPY….WTF? When’s that bubble going to burst? I guess if the dollar keeps going down, the commodities will keep going up!

Let’s see if DX catches a 72-handle overnight :evil:

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Anybody home?

Published on April 26, 2011, 9:19 pm in Opinions. Closed Tags: , .

Well, volume was 2 times yesterday’s volume, but that still is not saying much. Traders still on Easter vacation?

S&P at new highs…follow through or do we bang our heads up here and tumble down?

History to be made tomorrow as the FOMC rate announcement will be followed with a Q&A with Ben Bernanke in the spotlight. Could be a scary moment :twisted:

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Will good news be bad news?

Published on March 30, 2011, 9:20 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Bad news has had no effect on the market…except for moving up. So are traders waiting for good news to send this thing tumbling? We’ve had bad consumer confidence, European countries downgraded, and horrible housing reports! Still the markets move up. Maybe a great Jobless claims number or BLS report will make traders think?

Maybe it doesn’t matter either way, not too many traders around. SPY volume was at -20% below the daily average and ES contract volume was 1.4 million…one of the lowest volume days of the year!

Tomorrow is the last trading day of March and the 1st quarter. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the last trading day of March, the Dow has been down 11 of the last 16 years. On the other hand, the Russell 2000 has been up 12 of the last 16 years. That gives us a lot of direction, huh?

Now the first trading day of April, which is Friday, the Dow has been up 13 of the last 16 years. I’m a little hesitant to add to my longs, but bought some hedges, as in a few SDS calls and SPY puts…short term holds just in case.

“Two passenger planes landed in Washington, D.C. with no assistance from a sleeping air traffic controller. Luckily, the pilots were too drunk to notice.” — Jay Leno

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Were the markets open today?

Published on March 28, 2011, 10:31 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

After the nice morning opening pop, it was downhill…in price and volume. What ugly volume for this Monday. SPY volume was 36% below its daily average and the ES futures contracts traded only 1.27 million contracts all day….I’m usually looking for that many by noon!

On the other hand, the bears had all the opporunity in the world to muster their ranks, but it was a no show. Sure we had a selloff into the close, sure we closed red after a green open, but still, what a lackluster showing for all traders.

Here’s a funny quote from Ben Bernanke made in February 2006:

“Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise.”

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Now what?

Published on February 22, 2011, 10:03 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

What Difference A Day Makes….all my SPY puts and SDS calls that expired worthless on Friday would have made some money today! Some remaining SDS calls along with TLT calls and IWM puts did come into the money today, so I grabbed it while I had a chance.

As I mentioned yesterday, volume and volatility were up big. ES contract volume was up 50%+ over Friday’s volume, SPY volume up 40% over the 6-month daily average, and the VIX was up 37%….those are some big moves. 8O

I don’t think we’ll follow-thru right away. I’m expecting a bounce on Wednesday on lower volume to get short again….I’m still short, but not much. It would be healthy for this market to have a deeper correction…say 10%. If the Libyan situation clears up any, we may see another run up!

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Up. up and away!

Published on February 16, 2011, 9:45 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Did the markets move up with all the good news today? Let’s see…inflation in the U.S. with the PPI report today. Will it leak into the CPI? We’ll see on Thursday. Or how about all those Middle East protests? Or maybe Ivory Coast rush to withdraw bank cash? A good old-fashioned bank run….all good news to take markets higher! Yep, that’ll do it. 8O

So tomorrow the market will really run with the Steve Jobs health rumors….AAPL took a dump afterhours. Or maybe the CPI will show inflation? Don’t forget we get Jobless Claims also. And many of the Fed governors are speaking on Thursday.

I’m a little less short now since several of my SPY put options and SDS call options got stopped out. Still have some, but not as many.

And let’s not forget it’s Options Expiration Week! According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, February Expiration Day, Dow Down 7 of last 11. But this OpEx is also the Day before President’s Day Weekend, which finds the S&P down 16 of last 19. We live in interesting times!

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Oh My!

Published on February 8, 2011, 9:11 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Credit card debt grew in December for first time since 2008. But why? Are people really spending to buy more stuff…or are they using credit cards to pay monthly bills?

VXX continues to make new lows since inception…indexes are making new highs. Does “irrational exhuberance” come to mind? Are we really that much better than before the recession/depression started? If so, why are so many people looking for work? And why is gas and food costing more?

SPY volume was 43% below the average daily volume…S&P e-mini futures volume was low also. The markets are going higher and higher each day on lower and lower volume. WTF?

So I shorted the Dow via DIA puts…just so I can play. Besides using some of my mad money, I’m staying out.

The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith

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