Tag Archive for 'S&P'

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Divergence

The markets had a very nice pop on Monday…you knew that though. What else would happen after 5 days down last week? The question is, will this pop more? Not without retesting last week’s low, I think.

While markets went up, FB went down. FaceBook is a real disaster as underwriters are unable to make things hold up. Put a fork in it…it’s done! Read all about it below. I especially liked How Facebook Fucked Up Its Own IPO. Enjoy…unless of course you bought into FB.

FB! It’s Time!

Put buying accelerated on Thursday as doom and gloom was overtaking all traders. And it really showed into the close. Nasdaq (NQ) got bitch-slapped taking the brunt of the beating…. ES touched 1300…and the YM had its worst day since January. The VIX hasn’t been this high since last year! Was that the capitulation low? If 1300 on the ES doesn’t hold…where’s the next stop? I’m betting on this as the low. Time for a rebound.

Friday is all about Facebook. Traders and the press have been talking and speculating for weeks. They’ve set the price at $38 a share and raised a cool $16 billion…that’s with a ‘B’. It should be a big enough distraction from Greece and the Euro to maybe give us at least one positive day this week! It’s been a while since I’ve seen an OpEx week this ugly….maybe the last time Greece was such a worry.

History tell us we’re wrong!

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Monday after Mother’s Day the Dow has been up 14 of last 17 years…. and the Monday of May expiration, which today is also, the Dow has been up 20 of last 24 years. So, history has shown us that we did wrong today! :-(

We moved lower on low volume. Maybe it was because Europe hasn’t responded to their issues, especially Greece. Gee, if you can’t form a government, how will you work through your fiscal crisis? So, do we have a Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow?

Today was one of those “as goes AAPL, so goes the markets” kind of days.

Remember, it’s options expiration week, so the ride is always a rollercoaster week. There;s some market moving reports this week as well: CPI, Rtail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Survey and the latest FOMC minutes. So buckle your belts and hold on!

And remember…. In trading, some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue!! :D

Monday Blues

Traders got bitch-slapped Monday morning as no-news was bad-news. Well we did confirm a recession in Spain, so traders bailed out of the market. The German DAX led the way this morning, but after the European close, U.S. markets recovered somewhat. The S&P (ES futures contract) closed down -12.25.

We have an FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday. But it won’t be until Wednesday that we hear what they are thinking. There’s New Home Sales on Tuesday. Besides the FOMC announcement on Wednesday there is also Durable Goods Report. And on Friday we hear about GDP.

Remember…As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. Be careful out there.

Here we go again

Like a bad penny, options expiration is upon us again.  Plus there are a boatload of earnings report during this week. On the good side, it’s a slow economic news week…as if the earnings won’t make it a wild ride already. With earning expectations being lowered during the first quarter, many companies may “beat” earnings allowing for another run up in the indexes.

Like yesterday, markets were mixed as the Dow lead the way up, but AAPL and GOOG dragged down the Nasdaq and kept the S&P and Russell in check. Buckle up and let’s roll! 8O

1st Quarter down, 3 To Go

Seems like New Years was not that long ago, but a quarter of the year is at end. Have you started your Christmas shopping yet? 8O

We’ve had 2.5 down days and 1.5 consolidation days this week. The last 2 days of the 1st quarter are seasonally bearish days, while the first week of the 2nd quarter is seasonally bullish, at least according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. What makes it confusing on the last day of March is that the Dow has been down 12 of the last 17 years, but the Russell 2000 has been up 13 of the last 17 years. Oh my!

Next week will be a shortened holiday week with markets closed on Good Friday. April is the best month for the Dow, 2nd best for the S&P and 4th best for the Russell. So maybe the good times will continue for another month. On the flip side, April ends the “best 6 months” of the trading year. We’ve got 30 days to decide if we should “sell in May and go away!”

My oh my!

The volume continues to decline and so does the VIX as we mentioned before. . . .as do many others in the blogosphere. Here’s a thought: What the Heck is Happeneing with the VIV and VXX?

Yesterday, the S&P, or actually the ES futures contract) hung just above and below breakeven, having low volume spurts in either direction. And again, I’m just scalping for lunch money, with no committment to either direction. Here’s some stories you may enjoy. . . and learn.

Must be OpEx

Yes it is…keeps coming back like a bad penny! ;)

And what makes this one interesting, as if they aren’t all interesting? Well first is today’s FOMC meeting and then Thursday we have the release of the stress tests on the banks.

Monday was a blank day with the S&P at no change, a doji. But all the bulls let out their frustrations on Tuesday after a fairly upbeat FOMC report and a generally good mood on Wall Street with JPM saying they will increase their dividend. WTF? Wasn’t the law laid down that no bank could announce anything until after the numbers are released on Thursday? Again….WTF!

The Fed lies, Wall Street lies, everybody lies! How is the little guy supposed to trade this market? Oh, that’s right, we’re not!

Manic Monday!

Just another Manic Monday! After a gap up opening, the indexes took the rest of the day to take out last week’s lows and making a new December low. And although they bounced near the close, especially the NQ, the indexes closed closer to their low of day than to their HOD.

Looking bearish, but maybe a “Turnaround Tuesday” in the making…. if volume picks up. Everybody on holiday already?

Boring!

After the S&P takes a 47 point dive the first 3 days of the week, today was a mild 6 point recovery. Oh my! Actually today was a very boring market day. A very nice pop up gap open, but down from there ending up, but midway back from the open….and all on very low volume.
Xmas time is here
Friday better show some action. December’s quadruple witching options expiration has been up 21 of the last 29 years with an average 0.4% gain. And isn’t it about time for Santa Claus to show up?