Tag Archive for 'S&P'

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This should be interesting…

After a 400 point range in the Dow, it ended up only 60 points. All the other indexes closed in the red. WTF?

Friday looked like massive margin calls and forced liquidations after the big run down on Thursday. Rumors began to circulate during the day that S&P was going to do what it finally did after hours…downgrade US debt. If the S&P knocked down the US debt, don’t they also knock down the holders of that debt?

Here’s the remaining countries with a triple A rating: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. How far can they go with having “superior” debt? Buffett Says Cutting U.S. Rating Was Mistake, Sees No Recession.

The first reaction I had (as if anyone cared) is pass off all the US “peace-keeping” duties to these countries and let them take care of “us.” And quit “loaning” money to other countries. And quit giving money to people that haven’t put any money into the pot (read as welfare) …freeloaders! Sorry, I digress.

Here’s the S&P Ratings Report http://stk.ly/nzkwsU. Interesting reading.

Ok, back to trading. I’m definitely going to tread lightly. Futures this evening gapped down big…ES down 35 points, Dow down 325 pts. They have recovered about a third since the 6PM open. I’ve put bonds and the VIX on my short list via TBT calls and VIX puts. The metals may be a good short also via DZZ and ZSL, but I’ll put them in second place because I’ve been burned by them before.

Although only the Globex is open, Asia markets should open soon…and so far, it’s a pretty tame open for the past 2 hours. Maybe this was all baked in the previous two weeks?

Good luck on Monday and thanks for reading.

P.S. Just remember, if the Dow falls more than 30 percent (3600 pts), the market will close! Don’t think we get there, but keep it in mind?

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Historic Bullsh!t

Yes it was the worse day for the markets since December 2008! Just look at some of those numbers for just the 4 days of this week: Energy and Transportation down 10%; Russell down 9%; Banks down 8%; Semis down 7%…just ugly! Get a perspective here at A look at the Dow’s worst drops since 1900.

The VIX finally perked up with a 35% pop today and ES volume was enormous, relatively speaking with over 5 million ES contracts traded. Haven’t seen that since…well I don’t know when…but it’s been a long time!

And did you see the NYSE Advance/Decline volume? …-84:1 WOW! I guess traders aren’t going on vacation…they’re lurking!!

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It’s the economy stupid!

We had the biggest down day this year, although the volume was not that big. I would have rather seen a big woosh down and have buyers come in instead of this slow, grinding death…on every little pop, a barrage of bears come in and sell, sell, sell! It was one of the ugliest days I’ve seen…add in 7 down days in a row…8 for the Dow…the markets are very, very oversold.

For as crazy as the market has been the past week, the VIX has been fairly tame.You would think the VIX would have shown some additional upside movement. S&P is now negative for the year. I don’t expect it to stay there, but still a significant accomplishment…for the bears.

The Arms Index, also known as TRIN says: A TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market is in trouble! The TRIN closed at 4.64 on Tuesday!

Wow…staggering…S&P down almost 100 points…the Dow down 900 points…all in a few days! Screw the debt-ceiling, it’s the economy stupid!

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Up, down and back to even

The gap up was expected of course, but the reversal after only 15 minutes was a surprise. I unloaded half my long positions at, as it turns out, the high of the day. My thought was to hang on for a continued up move after a pullback. But, the pullback never stopped!

The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq broke through Friday’s low to notch new lows. But, the Russell did not make a new low…although it did close below its 200MA. The Dow tested its 200MA but bounced back up. The S&P broke through its 200 but managed to recover and close above…. A wide range day on all indexes. You would think with all that volatility the VIX would have gone up. Instead the VIX moved down. With the VIX down and the RUT not making new lows, there is some hope for the bulls.

The House passed the latest version of the debt-ceiling crisis bill. Now onto the Senate. It traders hated the announcement of a deal, just what will they do once it’s approved? Well, futures are near the low of the overnight session as I’m writing. Oh my!

A little bit of economic reports every day this week, but Friday brings the monthly aggravation of the employment situation…which can’t be too good. And of course, the never-ending debt-crisis will continue to wreak havoc. Can’t wait til it’s over so we can go back and worry about Europe! ;-)

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Goldfinger!

Gold finally makes it over $1600 mark…now to see if it continues up from here. The markets went in the other direction with gusto. The NYSE Advance/Decline volume was over -10:1 for the bears. The S&P and the Dow, did recover half of its morning losses by the end of the day. The Nasdaq looked strong in the afternoon…maybe in anticipation of IBM earnings…but there was no stopping AAPL! Wow if really took off.

Still a very crazy market…up and down. Remember,

Better to be in cash wishing you were in the market than to be in the market wishing you were in cash!

Be careful out there.

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Helluva week!

That was one bullish week! Just look at the chart of the S&P….each day opened near their lows and closed near their highs.S&P July 4th
This week has the big employment reports on Friday and earnings reports start up again next week. Not expecting any increases in volume until after Labor Day.

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What was that?

Was that really an “up” day? The Dow and S&P a little green and the Russell and Naz a little red. I was like a deer in headlights… I couldn’t figure out if we were going to bounce or swirl the bowl for a cleaning flush! As it turns out, neither!

The markets were pumped in the morning with all kinds of M&A activity, but it fizzled soon after the open. Advance/Decline issues and volume were all negative, but only slightly. It really was a mixed day.

Lots of Chinese economic news coming out Monday night….CPI, PPI, Retail Sales among others. We should see some activity in the overnight. Be careful out there!

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Amazing

After having one of the best days this year yesterday, I had the worst today! Amazing! I took profits on many positions yesterday. Sure I was expecting a pullback today, but not a crash! Just like tomorrow I expect a bounce, but not a 30 point bounce in the S&P….but you never know.

I can’t remember ever seeing the TRIN close this high…4.22. A close above 2 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of ten. If no bounce, the market is in trouble.

Boy, the financials really got a bitch-slap today. Looks at those candles on XLF FAS UYG and IAI….ugly! And speaking of ugly, look at TBT. I got stopped out of many of my positions but will live to fight another day.

A lot more jobs data coming the next 2 days. Will it be a rollercoaster or just straight down?

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Are we done yet?

Well, the markets continued their move down today. The eco reports weren’t that great along with some lousy earnings reports. But, there’s always a but, buyers returned in the afternoon, whith the markets closing well of their lows. The Nasdaq Composite actually closed in the green and the SPX almost made it.

And now the futures are also showing some perkiness…matching early returns in the Asian markets!

I think I’ll grab a few bucks from oil and S&P futures before going to bed. Happy trading!

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Anybody home?

Well, volume was 2 times yesterday’s volume, but that still is not saying much. Traders still on Easter vacation?

S&P at new highs…follow through or do we bang our heads up here and tumble down?

History to be made tomorrow as the FOMC rate announcement will be followed with a Q&A with Ben Bernanke in the spotlight. Could be a scary moment :twisted:

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