Yes, it’s all about the employment numbers on Friday. Are we overbought?….but is it a good overbought? The kind of overbought we got into in mid-March 2009? Friday’s reports will tell us.
All the news has been “not bad” the past 2 days…and if we can get another day’s worth, boy oh boy, we may go into the Labor Day weekend over 1100 S&P. Got to admit, that would be nice!
My moneymakers today were QTM AEZS USO and XLE. Friday’s pick’s will have to wait for the Non-Farm payroll report to get a feel for the trend. I would like to see oil try for $76 and the US dollar to rest in the $82 area. What the hell, the market never does what I want it to do. 
The news continues to suck, with GDP, consumer sentiment and speeches to confuse everyone. But, stocks still rallied. As we say, sometimes the reaction is more important than the reality.
Traders did take a quick trip down to test that 1040 S&P level. That level has been tested several times the last 3 months. We’ve also got oil moving up and bonds moving down…which should be good for stocks.
Sunday evening futures are moving up. And merger Mondays have brought good news lately, although Mondays have not been moving up much after the open. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac: August next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 13 years 
The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.
Diving right from the git-go, the morning turned out to be a wait-and-see when low would be low enough. By noontime the low was hit and the slow climb up started and continued for the rest of the day. At one point all the indexes were green, but they couldn’t hold it. The Nasdaq was able to close in the green and the Russell was nearby but closed slightly red. I was disappointed that the markets weren’t more volatile for an options expiration….volume was down from yesterday also. Can’t really decide if Friday was bearish or bullish. 
The S&P is still bouncing within this 3-month long channel.
If it’s going to obey the channel, it needs to bounce….a dead-cat or bull resumption bounce.
We’re in the summer doldrums and still have another 2 weeks to go. We’ve also had a lot of bad economic news but the market has been able to maintain itself within the channel. It still has not challenged the May, June or July lows….although it is trading below the 20- 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The semiconductors SOX had a good week, but we still need those banks BKX to show some enthusiasm. And oil sure could use a fire under its barrel.
Charts are very schizophrenic! Arguments can be made for a long and/or short position. Cash may be the position of choice, at least until the charts points one way….or the other. 
For three days in a row we have opened and closed right about the same place. This kind of trading shows we are confused and don’t know which way to go!
August is usually tricky trading because of the low volume. It’s a time to practice holding onto your money or taking a vacation.
I’m sitting a little bit long with a few January call options in XLK XLE XLF and TBT. I’m holding most of my money, but thought some limited speculative plays using options wouldn’t break my bank. Here’s to a great 200-point turnaround Tuesday! 
This had to be the lowest volume day this year, or maybe multi-years! It’s definitely the lowest volume I have ever seen in the ES emini….even for half-day trading….less then a million ES contracts traded!
Except for the low volume, today played out as thought, as the S&P twiddles with its June highs. The action tomorrow will be after 2PM and the Fed announcement. Traders are optimistic that the news will be good and the Fed may resume some of their stimulus measures.
Futures are down early this evening. While there are a few economic reports in the morning, there probably isn’t enough there to bring traders back from the Hamptons. Sure hope we don’t have to watch another coat of paint drying.
Ok, it’s not what I would call a follow-through day, but it was a decent reaction to yesterday’s up move. Neither day had any volume, but today’s consolidation was on lower volume than yesterday’s explosion. So far, we’ll still sitting good for a continuing up move.
Asian markets are opening soft with the Nikkei down almost 2%, but S&P futures are still hanging around breakeven. Gold is trying to move up and oil is moving down.
Wednesday brings us the ADP Employment report at 8:15AM…..the predecessor to Friday’s big show. We’ll see if the markets deserve to continue its up move. Maybe oil inventories will help. The US$ levels are getting low enough that if it goes any lower, stocks may begin to worry. I’d actually like the $ to stabilize.
So much analysis, so little time. 
Wow! Great moves in the market today! The Dow broke through the June and July highs on the first trading day of August!
The S&P is close but still needs a few points.
Now of course, volume was not that great so many will say it’s not a “real” rally, but it doesn’t matter to me…weak rally profits spend just as well as strong rally profits! 
I traded about 20 minutes in the morning and about 35 minutes in the afternoon…and it was a good profit day. Now time to look at charts while I soothe my sunburn…ouch.
The blades have to be getting dull on this chopper. All the indexes ended in the red, off anywhere from a quarter percent to one and a half percent. Volume was extremely low and Advance/decline volumes were barely down two to one.
But which way do we go now? I’m positioned on the long side, so I want the market to go long. Unfortunately, the market never does what I want it to do. So, play the charts. But I can’t tell from the charts. The only play I have is to tighten stops and maybe hedge a bit with TZA BGZ or maybe just S&P futures.
I’ll be listening in on the DRYS conference call on Thursday morning. Earnings came out after the close today and looked good. Now we need some good news…like an IPO or a sale.
Thursday brings us the largest single day of earnings reports of the season. And let’s not forget our weekly headache of Initial Unemployment Claims. Something’s got to move in a confident direction, either up or down….soon, I hope. Good luck tomorrow!
Do you remember the old WWII war movies, or even Hogan’s Heroes, when they disciplined soldiers by threatening to send them to the Russian front? Well, I guess that’s what BP is doing with CEO Hayward…sending him over to the russian front as someone else runs the mothership. 
Today was a sausage-maker…chop, chop, chop. The good thing, it relieved some of that overbought pressure in equities. The bad part…gold and oil got bitch-slapped….hard!
All the indexes closed near breakeven, the Dow in the green and the rest in the red. Not very damaging, but I wouldn’t want to see much more than 10 points shaved off in the SPX…a test of that breakout would be good.
Tomorrow will be wait and see…see what the Durable Goods Orders says in the morning and what the Fed’s Beige Book says in the afternoon. Oh yeah, and in between we’ll see how oil inventories are doing.
Happy trading tomorrow!
We suprisingly had some good homes sales news and FDX boosted its earnings predictions for the fiscal first quarter and the rest of the year! All the indexes closed in the green.
I didn’t think the S&P would get to its 200ma in 1 day, but it did…And the June highs are not that far off. 
The Dow closed above its June highs, while the Russell still has some ground to cover.
We have the House Price Index tomorrow along with consumer confidence. The Stock Trader’s Almanac shows Monday, Thursday and Friday as bullish days. Now that doesn’t mean that’s what will happen, but seasonality does have a vote in this market. But, if you’re a bull, you’ve got to be feeling pretty good!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
