Tag Archive for 'Russell'

Here we go again

Published on April 17, 2012, 8:31 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Like a bad penny, options expiration is upon us again.  Plus there are a boatload of earnings report during this week. On the good side, it’s a slow economic news week…as if the earnings won’t make it a wild ride already. With earning expectations being lowered during the first quarter, many companies may “beat” earnings allowing for another run up in the indexes.

Like yesterday, markets were mixed as the Dow lead the way up, but AAPL and GOOG dragged down the Nasdaq and kept the S&P and Russell in check. Buckle up and let’s roll! 8O

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So that’s what you think…

Published on April 11, 2012, 8:26 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

Well….I think we’ve got the full reaction to Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll Report). There was no U.S. trading on Friday and no European trading on Monday, so Tuesday was the first day when worldwide traders could say ‘FU’ to the report.

AA kicking off the earnings season with a good report, should lead the oversold markets on a bounce up. Globex overnight futures are confirming that. The question…do we go and test the highs first or just reverse and look for a bottom? With the Russell and Nasdaq showing weakness, we’ll need the techs and small companies to turnaround before going back for highs.

We’re going to be looking at the Beige Book this afternoon. And don’t forget, OpEx next week.

1st Quarter down, 3 To Go

Published on March 29, 2012, 9:57 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Seems like New Years was not that long ago, but a quarter of the year is at end. Have you started your Christmas shopping yet? 8O

We’ve had 2.5 down days and 1.5 consolidation days this week. The last 2 days of the 1st quarter are seasonally bearish days, while the first week of the 2nd quarter is seasonally bullish, at least according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. What makes it confusing on the last day of March is that the Dow has been down 12 of the last 17 years, but the Russell 2000 has been up 13 of the last 17 years. Oh my!

Next week will be a shortened holiday week with markets closed on Good Friday. April is the best month for the Dow, 2nd best for the S&P and 4th best for the Russell. So maybe the good times will continue for another month. On the flip side, April ends the “best 6 months” of the trading year. We’ve got 30 days to decide if we should “sell in May and go away!”

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Spastic

Published on October 26, 2011, 10:45 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Crazy days in the market…up down and all around. On Monday we closed near the highs, on Tuesday near the lows and then near the highs again today. The markets are different things to different traders…hope they’ve been good to you.

Futures are taking off in the early globex session….up up and away! The Dow and Nasdaq are flirting with their 200-day average, while the S&P and Russell are working to move up and get close. If the Eurozone makes a decision we should fly. Otherwise, up, down, up, down….

Unexpected?

Published on August 8, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

I thought the bounce would start sometime by the close, but you can’t always get what you want! And the selling in the ES futures continued into the evening. ES has sunk below 1100 last time I looked.

I did nibble on some TBT calls at a time I thought they may have bottomed, but, no such luck. I’m still sitting in them, underwater. So you can say I had a bad day.

It was an incredible day….The VIX advanced 50%, and although I was looking to short the VIX, I sat on my hands. SPY down 7.5%, yes in one day. The Russell was down almost 9% and the “winner” today was the Dow, down “only” 5.5%.

Some sector ETFs really got bruised: FAS the 3X financial bull ETF was down 30%, so the financial XLF was down over 10%. But Bank of America, BAC was down 22%…ouch! Oil and technology weren’t pretty at all.

So is it time for Turnaround Tuesday? China has some announcements overnight and those European PIIGS are still a pain in the ass. And let’s not forget, it’s time for FOMC meeting and announcement. Gee, what are the chances of a rate hike on Tuesday? :roll:

Historic Bullsh!t

Published on August 4, 2011, 9:03 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Yes it was the worse day for the markets since December 2008! Just look at some of those numbers for just the 4 days of this week: Energy and Transportation down 10%; Russell down 9%; Banks down 8%; Semis down 7%…just ugly! Get a perspective here at A look at the Dow’s worst drops since 1900.

The VIX finally perked up with a 35% pop today and ES volume was enormous, relatively speaking with over 5 million ES contracts traded. Haven’t seen that since…well I don’t know when…but it’s been a long time!

And did you see the NYSE Advance/Decline volume? …-84:1 WOW! I guess traders aren’t going on vacation…they’re lurking!!

Up, down and back to even

Published on August 1, 2011, 10:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

The gap up was expected of course, but the reversal after only 15 minutes was a surprise. I unloaded half my long positions at, as it turns out, the high of the day. My thought was to hang on for a continued up move after a pullback. But, the pullback never stopped!

The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq broke through Friday’s low to notch new lows. But, the Russell did not make a new low…although it did close below its 200MA. The Dow tested its 200MA but bounced back up. The S&P broke through its 200 but managed to recover and close above…. A wide range day on all indexes. You would think with all that volatility the VIX would have gone up. Instead the VIX moved down. With the VIX down and the RUT not making new lows, there is some hope for the bulls.

The House passed the latest version of the debt-ceiling crisis bill. Now onto the Senate. It traders hated the announcement of a deal, just what will they do once it’s approved? Well, futures are near the low of the overnight session as I’m writing. Oh my!

A little bit of economic reports every day this week, but Friday brings the monthly aggravation of the employment situation…which can’t be too good. And of course, the never-ending debt-crisis will continue to wreak havoc. Can’t wait til it’s over so we can go back and worry about Europe! ;-)

Getting close

Published on July 31, 2011, 7:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Traders are on the edge of their seats waiting for the official word….will they or won’t they?

Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason!

On Friday, the S&P and Russell tested their 200 day moving averages….and successfully bounced off it.
S&P July 29 tests 200MA
Futures are giddy Sunday evening and anticipating a resolution to the debt-crisis as they pop 20 points (ES) at the get go. Still a very news driven market. :-(

We’re going to start off the week with ISM Manufacturing numbers along with Construction Spending. But remember there’s a big employment report on Friday!

I bet on a resolution on Friday so I’m long the Russell and financials. Now here’s hoping that this evenings happiness lasts at least until Morning!

Finally!

Published on January 30, 2011, 8:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

I have been looking for a retracement for a couple weeks now because the market was overbought and sentiment was running too bullish. But it took Egypt to give traders an excuse to sell-off. I’m thinking we may have sold off even if the whole Egypt mess had not happened. Oh well, woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Now the question…Is that all there is? While all the indexes retreated on Friday, the Russell has been looking ugly for a while and now looks really bad. Russell at the end of January

Lots of things happening….the whole Mideast tensions, BLS Employment reports, the start of a new month, February options expiration coming in 3 weeks, financials and techs not very happy, retail sales disappointing…a continuing pullback is possible and probable.

So far futures are moving downward Sunday evening, but it’s a long time until U.S. markets open. Europe’s open should give us a pretty good idea on what to expect for Monday. I will be trading lighter until I see a definite trend, one way or the other.

I would sometimes think that maybe I ought to stop trading because it was very painful to keep losing. In “Fiddler on the Roof”, there is a scene where the lead looks up and talks to God. I would look up and say, “Am I really that stupid?” And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, “No, you are not stupid. You just have to keep at it.” …..So I did. — Michael Marcus

Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!

Is it over?

Published on January 20, 2011, 9:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Wow, what a great day trading the S&P e-mini futures…in both directions! Definitiely a traders market today. But the question is…is the correction over?

I don’t think so. The S&P had 33 continuous days of closing above the 8-day exponential moving average. Yesterday the index closed just below the 8EMA and today it closed a little below yesterday. Is there another trend starting….down?
33 days of closing above the 8EMA

The Dow and the S&P, although closing in the red, were well off their lows. The RUT closed near its lows.

No news on Friday, but some pretty big earnings reports from GE and BAC. Oh yes, and it is Options Expiration Friday. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Dow has been down 10 of the last 12 January expirations. Let’s see if history repeats.