First it was all the pre-market news like Initial Claims, PPI, Empire Index and Philly Fed numbers. Although the numbers weren’t all that bad, actually the IC numbers were pretty good, traders didn’t like them and we went down…and pretty dramatically after the Philly Fed announcement. Oh yeah, and AAPL scheduled a meeting for Friday morning. We meandered down under for the rest of the day.
But (there’s always a but) first rumors then news came out after 3PM that had the markets giddy with happiness. Maybe BP has finally capped the well! BP took off. Then GS might be announcing a settlement with the SEC. GS took off. Then, kaboom, the markets took off, some ending green…others red. Pretty much breakeven for the day, again. Although that was a nice recovery for the indexes.
Then afterhours, GOOG comes out with a crappy earnings report. GOOG quickly dove more than $20 dollars. But (what did I tell you?) it had no affect on the QQQQs or Nasdaq futures or S&P futures. Maybe GOOG is no longer an 800-lb. gorilla? Even AAPL went green afterhours.
Oh yeah, and Congress passed FinReg….ho hum.
Tomorrow brings some very anticipated earnings: GE BAC and C and they might just set the tone for Friday’s trading, well at least until 9:55AM when Michigan Sentiment numbers come out.
You know I’ve been bullish on oil for a couple weeks now, and news like this can really perk it up in short order: An Attack on Iran: Back on the Table. Now, just clean up the mess and maybe we can get back to normal. 
Well, I said it would hurt! All my stock longs were crushed. The only redeeming action I took was hedge scalping with the ES. They were counter-trend plays scalping 3 to 5 ticks at a time. But all I came up with was a breakeven for the day. Success!
QQQQ now down 8 straight days. Only 3 times in QQQQ history has it been down 8 in a row, so we should see some relief. Circuits were tested — Circuit Breaker Kicks in, Stopping Trades of Citigroup and other financials weren’t any better: Financials take hit.
So the rest of the week will tell us if we have bottomed or just entering a new bear. It will come down to jobs, jobs, jobs. And remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .
Wow, gold is on a rocket….but eventually the rocket fuel runs out. Have you noticed all the gold commercials on TV? On the business channels like CNBC, FBN and Bloomberg, they are trying to sell us coins and bullion. On “regular” channels they want to buy all our chains, bracelets, rings and teeth. So…do you think we’re in the middle of a gold bubble?
Y’know, the SEC could announce a circuit breaker rule soon, but why not instead reinstate the uptick rule and stop the naked shorts from manipulating the markets? But nooo, that would upset all the big boys on the playground…
DRYS and CSCO reported after hours. Neither had blowout reports and both are trading below today’s close, but not in the red…yet. CSCO could weigh on the QQQQ and Nasdaq and all the techs. Tech and banks have been leading the past couple days, so I’d like to see that continue.
We’re going to have to test the 200ma or at least get close to a recent low before we go to much higher, so I’m keeping a close watch on the inverse ETFs like: TZA BGZ TYP FAZ SDS. Play these on a short term and/or to protect some of your long positions.
Futures mildly unexciting this evening, hanging around where they closed, plus or minus a point or two. Initial claims on Thursday better continue to the upside. The slightest news, good or bad, could move this market in either direction. 
The question was, “What are CDOs?” And Sen. Levin continued to use that word all afternoon talking about CDOs or the GS sales force or describing Goldman’s deals! As it turns out, Mr. ”Shitty” Levin doesn’t know a thing about what he’s asking! And here’s the best joke I saw today… from Lloyd_Blankfein: “The joke’s on Levin. I had my boys put the Senator Pension Plan in Portuguese bonds this morning.” heeheehee! 
Here’s how the market reacted to the GS grilling: Financials (-3.4%), Materials (-3.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.9%), Energy (-2.8%). Of course there was more to that than just GS…we had the downgrading of Greece and Portugal debt. I’m sure that was worth a few points.
Personally, I had one of the best days of the year. The short positions via TZA, QQQQ puts and TWM calls were all golden, but I spent most of the day playing the S&P emini to the short side. The best position would have been just to short in the morning and cover in the afternoon, but I was in and out 4 different transactions….but all to the good.
Tomorrow is Fed Day with the rate announcement coming at about 2PM EDT. Before that we have today’s continuation…maybe a gap down with a bounce? A lot will depend on if we have any more downgrades like Greece and Portugal today. Play ‘em like they’re dealt!
My takeway after watching hours of Senate grilling of GS on TV: Throw away all email servers!
Never write when you can speak, never speak when you can nod, never nod when you can wink.
Oh what to do? The market is way overbought, but price action keeps moving on up. Markets still making new highs and also 52-week new highs…except for the Naz, the index made a new high Friday but did not make new highs in the 52-week new highs….a slight divergence maybe?
I’m still sitting in mostly cash, but have now split my longs/shorts at 20%/30%. My longs are DRYS ZANE TBT. My shorts are via TZA, IWM puts and QQQQ puts.
Futures this evening are already frisky to the upside….just reflecting tha happy openings in Asia. The melt-up continues. Be long or be wrong! But be careful.
The day started off giddy with AAPL excitement, but soon tamed down and moved back and forth between red and green. All the indexes, except for the NYSE, closed barely green. After the close some bad reports from QCOM AMGN and EBAY sent futures moving to the downside…and they continue down thru the evening.
With the big up move in the Q’s thanks to AAPL, I thought I’d nibble on some puts, along with adding to my TZA position. The SPY looks like it may have formed a double-top over the past several days. Maybe tomorrow we see a confirmation of failed top. Also note that we continue to have increased volume only to the downside. 
Tomorrow we have Jobless Claims and lots of earnings reports. If neither of those have any good news, we may get real ugly. Here’s some more reading to cheer you up:
Greek Workers to Strike Today as Papandreou Faces Bond Rout
Do Bank of America’s Blowout Earnings Actually Blow?
See you tomorrow on the battlefield….or maybe I’ll just sleep-in.
This bullishness (or is that bullshitness) is making me sick. C’mon people, we are not in that great of shape. Did you see initial jobless claims ticked up along with continuing claims? Of course now that unemployment has been extended another year, there should be a lot more liquidity now available for the market!
Both ISRG and GOOG had earnings reports this afternoon and are getting snipped afterhours. GOOG was down over $30 from the day’s highs while ISRG was down $13. I’m expecting QQQQ puts and SPY puts should work out well tomorrow….along with the GOOG puts of course. Futures are already moving to the downside….we’ll just have to see how far. BAC and GE report in the morning, so maybe that will be the frosting on this cake. Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment get reported tomorrow as well.
Remember, it’s options expiration Friday….do you know your options? 
This was an ugly day…low volume rallies and high volume breakdowns. Are we heading for a correction or a crash? I can sure ask the question, but I have no idea about the answer…I can only play ‘em one day at a time.
I’m still sticking with my bearish positions via TZA and TWM along with some QQQQ puts and VIX calls…and boy was that stance a pain today. But it worked out by the end of the session. Patience pays. It was a great 10-year auction today, but offset by an ugly consumer credit report. The credit report won…or is that lost…with all the indexes ending in the red.
The worry over PIGS is back…just in time for an ECB Monetary Policy meeting on Thursday. And back in the homeland we have Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, a 30-year bond auction and last but not least, Tiger returns to the game. So if traders are not busy worrying about interest rates or growing debt, they’ll be watching TV. 
It was such a low volume day I think anyone buying more than 1000 shares of a stock actually moved the market! The ES didn’t hit 1 million contracts until after the cash close. Sure Europe was closed as was about half of the Asian markets, but still, I usually look for 2 million by 3PM EST. Trading was slower than a Christmas eve!
I digress. The indexes closed in the green but it was a very boring day. I covered half of my UNG calls for 62% and half of my DRYS calls for 23%. My VIX calls are about worthless, but I still have 9 trading days to see if they perk up. TZA is looking pretty crappy but I added a few shares near the close. In keeping with my bearish bent on the markets I also added QQQ puts and TWM calls. I’ll see how far that gets me this week. Oh, and VG which I bought about a month ago, finally turned green.
It’s reading stuff like the following that gets me shaking my head and wondering “why?”
Huge 25% hike for small businesses kills New York jobs.
Office vacancy rate hits 16-year high
Tomorrow we get FOMC minutes and find out how the Treasury’s 3-year note auction behaves. Today’s auction was pretty good, with the 10-year interest rate hopping above 4% briefly, but did not cause any consternation in the equities. Let’s see if the world returns to trading on Tuesday.
After a full bullish day on Tuesday, we had a half bearish day on Wednesday. Portugal on the ropes and new home sales blowing a little stinker, the bulls did not have a leg to stand on. There were many attempts by the bulls to buy on the dips, but today the bears prevailed, taking back half of what they gave the bulls yesterday.
I still have all the positions I had yesterday, although I cashed out some profits in QQQ puts and then got back in when the market went back up. That double top in the SPY did what it said it was going to do today….and I’m still looking for more downside travel….but in this market, you never know.
Asian markets are opening in the green, as are the futures. We are near the end of the month and the quarter….plus next week is a holiday shortened week. Tomorrow we get Initial Jobless Claims and also earnings reports from BBY and ORCL, among others. These markets have me on edge and I hope some sort of “normalcy” returns soon. In the mean time, my stock positions are getting smaller as my cash position gets larger.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
