Trading thoughts, ideas, tips, musings, and pontifications. . .not necessarily in that order.
With bullish China, bearish earnings and a shortened option expiration week, this should be some ride. Feeling kinda toppy here though. As it’s OpEx, I’m probably watching more than trading….and I’m hoping to see more volume and more volatility. Happy Trading!
After the S&P takes a 47 point dive the first 3 days of the week, today was a mild 6 point recovery. Oh my! Actually today was a very boring market day. A very nice pop up gap open, but down from there ending up, but midway back from the open….and all on very low volume.
Friday better show some action. December’s quadruple witching options expiration has been up 21 of the last 29 years with an average 0.4% gain. And isn’t it about time for Santa Claus to show up?
I’d have to say the markets had a bad day! It looked very promising with the major indexes up by more than 1%. But traders sure didn’t like the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Indexes deteriorated as an initial reaction and continued down. There was a small pop going into the close, but basically a bad day.
So tomorrow we’ll be halfway thru this Opex week. With December OpEx week being up 22 of the last 27 years, there’s a lot of points to make up.
Ok, so all OpEx weeks are crazy, but now we add in a FOMC meeting! This should get real wild, no?
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, December OpEx week, S&P up 22 of the last 27 years. Looking good.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, November expiration day, Dow up 7 of last 9…but not today! It was a mixed day, a little green, a little red.
It was a tough day for day-trading or scalping today, with no clear direction or advantage. I took a few trades on the simulator, but my “good” trades were break even. My plan says don’t trade on OpEx, and I followed my plan.
It was definitely an OpEx kinda day. This morning’s marketplace was very spastic… but not as crazy as the afternoon! It was up and down in a moment’s notice…making and losing money in seconds! 
As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”….and OpEx is anything but rational.
“To alcohol! The cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems” – Homer Simpson
Yes, I mean those ‘motherly’ cuss words…but I’m actually talking about Moodys and Fitch, get it? Heehee!
Moody’s downgraded some German banks, so Fitch downgrades US banks with dealings in Europe. Is this really news? Didn’t everybody already know that? And why announce that in the middle of an options expiration week? WTF? News, made up or real, always trumps charts and indicators.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac says, “Week before Thanksgiving, Dow up 15 of last 18.” Let’s see what Thursday and Friday bring us.
I was trading ES today. It just doesn’t feel good when a retracement doesn’t come back to your buy point…missing by one tick and then takes off without you…mope, mope, mope. On the other hand it doesn’t feel as bad as when you chase it up and it goes against you. Patience is a virtue! Trade your plan and stick to it!
Well the S&P eaked out a small gain even though the Eurozone is still a mess. Maybe the good news on the US economy might get top billing for a while. And maybe the techs will lead the way?
With a good retail sales and a decent PPI the markets diverged from Europe and recovered from a gap down. More news coming this week that will mix up an already crazy OpEx week….CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Leading Indicators.
Volume has been light this week so far. I would think OpEx would kick it up a bit. Let’s see what happens WTF (Wed, Thu, Fri) 
There is going to be a lot of words thrown about this week. Besides the eco reports, PPI, CPI, Housing Starts and Philly Fed Survey, there’s a Fed governor speaking every day…sometimes twice a day. The markets will be listening with one ear towards the FOMC gobbledygook and the other ear aimed at Europe. And the markets will get squeezed in the middle!
Don’t forget, it’s OpEx week as well. What a recipe for volatility! 
I’ve learned, over time, through analyzing my notes, that I just don’t do so well in option expiration weeks. So this week I have stayed away from trading and am cleaning my garage instead. ….not doing so well there either. My, I’ve accumulated a lot of junk!
Speaking of junk, central banks intervened this morning passing out dollars, while news on jobs was not so good.
Jobs and manufacturing were down while CPI was up. I guess passing out dollars was the winner, bringing indexes up.
Quadruple witching as options expire on Friday. Can’t wait for the markets to clean up their junk!
| INDU | 0.00 | |||||||
| NASDAQ | 2905.66 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1344.90 | |||||||
| ^RUT | 831.11 | |||||||
| QID | 36.382 | |||||||
| QQQ | 62.05 | |||||||
| QLD | 100.36 | |||||||
| TZA | 18.3401 | |||||||
| SSO | 53.15 | |||||||
| SDS | 16.758 | |||||||
| BGZ | 23.5037 | |||||||
| BGU | 75.50 | |||||||
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
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