As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.
There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 
I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.
Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.
Happy trading!
C joined BAC and JPM with higher than expected earnings and improved credit trends. But they and all financials puked on Friday. You have to wonder… If you’re making more money on less revenue, isn’t that a good thing? Would you rather see increased revenues with lower earnings?
This earnings season expectations are that all earnings will be good, and so far so good. It’s all about what you say in your conference call. BAC laid out a scenario that doesn’t sit well for any financial institution. They are saying that FinReg will curb debit-card fees and that will reduce revenues and increase costs. In BAC’s case, they say they may have to take a charge of up to $10 Billion dollars. That’s gonna hurt not only BAC, but all banks and financials, like MA and V. Boy did that show on Friday!
So now July OpEx Friday is down 7 of last 10. That sucks…and I’m reading in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, that in the week after July OpEx, the Dow has been down 7 of the last 11 years. That’s ominous.
This week will be one of the biggies with hundreds of earnings reports, including GS and AAPL, 11 of the Dow Industrials, and about every airline! Ben Bernanke speaks on the Hill, but otherwise a fairly data-quiet week.
And one more for the intereting reading pile: Short side of commodity market becomes crowded.
See you in the market 
This market could not make up it’s mind on what direction to go. Maybe it was just waiting for the earnings reports this evening. There must have been a lot of people waiting because nobody was trading….volume pathetic again. Options Expiration week….hours of boredom….with minutes of panic and/or excitment thrown in!
Earnings season looks like it may be just what the bulls were waiting for. AA CSX and NVLS all came in with better-than-expected results and the S&P futures were taking off before they closed at 4:15 PM EDT. And later on this evening, it looks as if they would like to continue their move up. Of course there is still 11 hours before Tuesday’s open.
Speaking of AA, it’s been going down ever since the last earnings report 3 months ago.
So does it go up for 3 months now?
It would be nice if the markets tomorrow just continue up in a nice-n-easy manner, slow but steady. What I would not like to see is a gap-n-crap in a wild opex kind of way….but, then again, it is opex week. 
Now that June options and future contracts have all rolled over, time to move on.
Volume was very low for an options expiration Friday. That USA vs Slovenia soccer match really took a lot of traders out of the mix! 
Actually, the entire week was a low volume boring time for an opex week. 
This week should be a bit more news driven than last. A Fed rates decision is due on Wednesday. During the week we’ll see New Home sales, Durable goods orders, GDP and consumer sentiment…plus a rash of treasury bill auctions.
Futures are taking off Sunday evening!! Dow e-mini (YM) is already up +140, the S&P e-mini (ES) is up +17…if this holds up overnight we will get a big bang at the open! Oil is up almost 2 dollars and other commodities are following suit. Get ready for a rip roarin’ Monday!
Today was very much like last Wednesday…a strong morning and then a move down into the close. Now if we can just replicate the two days after last Wednesday, which, if you remember, were 2 very strong up days, we could have a very nice opex week.
Moody’s finally got around to downgrading Greece today….something everyone already knew. So what’s next? Announcing tomorrow that BP has clean-up expenses? What the $%@&*!
UCO had a nice run with oil this morning, but moved back down in the afternoon along with stocks. I’m still bullish on commodities in general and oil specifically. Here’s some reading that helps me with my bullish sentiment. The prez’s speech Tuesday night may help also.
Futures this evening still hanging around breakeven. C’mon bulls, just do it!
Monday and Friday had powerful midday reversals, but in-between was pretty ugly! So the bears got 3 out of 5 last week, and the entire week was a downer.
The strong move into the close on Friday does not look like it’s impressing anyone in Asia as their markets meander in the red. Oil and euro is down and US dollar is up. And as we saw last week, this can all change by the opening bell tomorrow. 
Last week all traders thought about was Greece and Europe and China and everything else beside what’s happening to the good old USA. But this week we get some news about us: housing, GDP, income and spending, besides the usual weekly jobless claims. Get the entire lowdown here: Stocks: Back to the U.S.A.
Monday has a reputation of being green….especially after options expiration. I’m still looking for more upside this week but also because we usually run up into a holiday weekend. Look for Friday to be light on volume.
Hope you had a wonderful weekend and see you on the playing field.
As I tweeted today, a down Friday equals an up Monday! And that has held for an entire year. Also Stock Trader’s Almanac said “Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 21.” …which makes it 20 out of 22 now. But that’s not all, “May Expiration Friday, Dow up 5 of last 6! This could be a good week.
The market is sure spastic, but I’m still looking for some pressure to the upside, as could be seen this afternoon. That was a big move off the lows. But again, futures are showing their negative side….but then again, China hasn’t opened yet. And don’t forget yesterday’s big overnight reversal.
I added to my UCO position as I’m still looking for support around $10. It did overshoot, so I added. I have a stop under today’s low now. Here’s a couple of articles I found today on oil:
Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite the Gulf Spill
China Studies Using FX Reserves to Exchange for Oil
And another interesting story:
How P&G Plunge Derailed One Investor
Ok, I better update my TCnet and do some scans!
This bullishness (or is that bullshitness) is making me sick. C’mon people, we are not in that great of shape. Did you see initial jobless claims ticked up along with continuing claims? Of course now that unemployment has been extended another year, there should be a lot more liquidity now available for the market!
Both ISRG and GOOG had earnings reports this afternoon and are getting snipped afterhours. GOOG was down over $30 from the day’s highs while ISRG was down $13. I’m expecting QQQQ puts and SPY puts should work out well tomorrow….along with the GOOG puts of course. Futures are already moving to the downside….we’ll just have to see how far. BAC and GE report in the morning, so maybe that will be the frosting on this cake. Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment get reported tomorrow as well.
Remember, it’s options expiration Friday….do you know your options?
As Ozzy Osbourne sings, “Crazy, but that’s how it goes…. I’m living with something’ that just isn’t fair.” And boy was today a crazy train!
The top 5 active stocks represented 20% of the volume today. Four of those stocks are under 5 bucks, ABK C BPOP FNM. Only BAC was over five dollars. Not what you would call a healthy market. Pathetic volume to begin with and then 5 most active are government-welfare financial stocks! 
One trade I made today was to cash out some UNG calls for 38%. A nice take on a two-week hold. I also sold my SPY puts on that morning run down. I felt particularly good about that after the reversal and continuing grind up in the markets….crazy.
In case you haven’t heard, Recession is not over yet, says US panel.
And I find this disturbing: For Consumers, Time to Shop Until the Mortgage Drops. You’ve got to wonder how we have record consumer spending and record housing defaults.
INTC blew away its earnings and went nuclear after hours….which isn’t unusual for them. Actually that’s very predictable. And more often than not, it gaps up the next day and then reverses. So we’ll see.
Okay, we’ve reached the hump on OpEx week. Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
