Tag Archive for 'oil'

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Inflation is good

Published on September 28, 2010, 8:35 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

The economic reports this morning were not good, and thus the market rallies! A bad economy guarantees that the Fed will be performing some quantitative easing pretty quick…which ewventually gets us into inflation. More money at low interest makes its way into the market…making the market go up. But, Why is deflation bad?

Today I traded more transactions than I ever had in one day, clearing out a lot of positions that I had strung along for quite a while. DRYS QTWW FCEL NSM AMKR and a few I got just yesterday and today XRT IWM. Now I traded IWM puts all day long today (6 times) with 66% being profitable winners. :mrgreen:

Overnight I’m holding UCO TBT C and puts in both IWM and GLD….small positions in all except for C, got lots of C in stock and calls, picking it up here and there on dips for the last 5 months. One day I’ll cash out.

Tomorrow is a no news day except for oil inventories at 10:30AM EST….thus the UCO purchase today. Besides that we’ll be looking to Asia and Europe to set the tone for Wednesday. Keep in mind that the cloud over Europe has reappeared, especially in Ireland and Portugal, so watch out for that. Otherwise, happy trading, but be careful out there :!:

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5 more days

Published on September 23, 2010, 11:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , .

Yeppers! Only 5 more trading days left in September. That means the 4th quarter starts a week from tomorrow. Have you started your Christmas shopping yet? Well, fund and money managers will need some money to start so watch for a lot of window dressing in the week to come.

My late day yesterday and pre-market oil plays worked out well today. Still holding on to some USO calls and a couple shares of UCO.

I won’t harp on volume …I guess the “new normal” average volume is not about 10-20% less than what I always thought was average volume.

I’m not sure if we have had enough of a pullback….I think so. The S&P, along with the SPY, did close below the August highs. We’ll have to see on Friday if we pop back up through or feel around in the gutter for more. If we do get a down opening, I’ll look to nibble on some Bull ETFs like SPY SSO TNA BGU and the like. Watch out for 2 reports Friday morning: Durable Goods and New Home Sales.

“The National Bureau of Economic Research announced the recession actually ended in 2009. What idiots we were! So that recession you think you’re in, that’s as imaginary as the job you used to have.”

“What they don’t tell you, the next recession started in July of last year.” – Jay Leno

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Woe is me

Published on September 23, 2010, 9:07 am in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I had about 24 hours of hardware and Internet issues…all while trying to trade and attended an online webinar….those things don’t mix!

That also didn’t allow me to update my trading journal. For the past 18 months, I’ve been keeping a journal in Microsoft’s OneNote. While I jot down all my trades, I also write about what I’m feeling at the time, my reasons for buying, profit and stop targets. While it feels therapeutic during the day, the real value comes each weekend when I not only review the weeks entries, but also review some entries from months before…especially comparing recent winners and losers with “old” winners and losers.

I digress. The markets were pretty mixed up on Wednesday. Oil really got slapped around. At the end of the day I thought I’d nibble on some UCO and nibbled a little more in the pre-market this morning…average cost 8.65…we’ll see. May also look into some USO calls at the open.

Porbably a big eco number at 10AM…Existing Home Sales….also Leading Indicators. A pullback is not a bad thing…we just want to stay above the S&P’s June and August highs…Maybe a little poke-through, but nothing drastic.

Good Luck and happy trading :!:

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Breakout!

Published on September 20, 2010, 10:01 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Well, we finally broke out of that 4-month range…summer is officially over. :D   I guess the best thing would be to pullback and test those June/August highs from above, but of course, the market never does what you “think” it should.

It’s funny how a little blurb about the recession ending over a year ago could get the markets so excited! Oil, gold and the other commodities had a big up day also.

Watch out for Housing Starts in the morning and the FOMC announcement in the afternoon. It usually takes a day or two before the markets figure out what the FOMC is saying, so watch for some shennanigans up and down.

I saw this one today: Do you know the difference between a stockbroker or a investment advisor, or a financial planner? Do you know their responisbilities to you? You don’t? Neither does most of America! U.S. Investors & The Fiduciary Standard survey.

Happy trading :!:

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I hear the Fed a’coming

Published on September 19, 2010, 10:30 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

On “normal” opex Friday’s it usually gets wild about an hour before the close and volume zooms as traders even out their accounts. But, just as the rest of the week went, volume was below average….neither humans or computers want to trade anymore!

While the markets had an up week, the S&P still has not broke through the June and August highs.

But the Nasdaq has busted through the August highs and has its sight on the June highs.

So Nasdaq may be the new leader in this game.

Commodities look to be booming this evening, gold, oil, wheat, corn…oh my! Is inflation on its way? The FOMC has a meeting this week, and we’ll find out a lot more about the housing market as well.

Be careful out there…and happy trading :!:

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Strange Brew

Published on September 14, 2010, 10:37 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Today was a strange day in the market. The S&P went down to the 200ma bounced up to the August highs and then ended where it began the day….stuck in a range.

This will give you an idea of what the charts looked like today…Strange Brew.

Oil, gold and the dollar went wacky today…the dollar dove and gold soared. This evening, the Bank of Japan began intervening in the currency markets making the dollar soar and the yen dive. Dramamine anyone? Japan Intervenes in Forex Market for First Time in 6 Years.

Looks like September options expiration week is going to be a wild one!

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M&A Monday

Published on September 13, 2010, 11:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Mergers and Acquisitions were a main ingredient in today’s bull rally. Does that make Turnaround Tuesday primed for a down move? We’ve had 10 up days out of the last 12, somethings gotta give. At worst case, a collapse…at best case some consolidation and some backing and filling. Of course we could just keep going up also, but probabilites are weak on that one.

Oil was a leader today as it hit $78 and then retreated.

We’ve got Retail Sales and Business Inventories on Tuesday.

And that’s all he wrote! 8)

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Oils well that ends well

Published on September 10, 2010, 8:53 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Not much you can say about today except….oil, oil and oil! Which meant that UCO USO ERX were the place to be. And of course the calls I bought yesterday were golden.

Speakin’ of gold, it didn’t do so well today. Sure it closed in the green, but it took a dive. And if you look at the daily chart, it has a bearish evening star candle pattern. Better watch out!

Oh yeah, and the volume today just sucked. Can’t say more than that.

I’ll have my weekend reading out soon! Have a great weekend. :mrgreen:

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Tomorrow!

Published on September 2, 2010, 9:48 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

Yes, it’s all about the employment numbers on Friday. Are we overbought?….but is it a good overbought? The kind of overbought we got into in mid-March 2009? Friday’s reports will tell us.

All the news has been “not bad” the past 2 days…and if we can get another day’s worth, boy oh boy, we may go into the Labor Day weekend over 1100 S&P. Got to admit, that would be nice!

My moneymakers today were QTM AEZS USO and XLE. Friday’s pick’s will have to wait for the Non-Farm payroll report to get a feel for the trend. I would like to see oil try for $76 and the US dollar to rest in the $82 area. What the hell, the market never does what I want it to do. 8O

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I seen the needle and the damage done

Published on August 31, 2010, 9:55 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

The stock market is the biggest junkie in the world. The Fed says that we don’t need no stinkin’ quantitative easing, which should be good news, but the market quickly goes into DT’s and trembles all the way down. “But every junkie is like a setting sun.”

No QE means a strong economy, it means a recovery is in process! Oh, but it also means a strong dollar…and at the present the stock market does NOT like a strong dollar. So today, everytime the dollar shot up, the stock market, along with the oil market, moved down. And it seemed to happen about 20 times today!

Volume doubled yesterday’s totals and I think it should continue throughout the week, even though we are leading up to a holiday weekend. Too much news going on which will stir up the pot. Tonight I was waiting for China’s PMI, which has come out at 51.7, up from last months 51.2. And by morning we should have heard some GDP’s from European countries. We’ve also got ADP payroll report Wednesday morning, along with Construction Spending and oil inventories and more.

So much going on, Australia GDP up along with China PMI so futures are moving up strong also. Let’s hope it lasts until US markets open….and through the day tomorrow! :mrgreen:

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