Tag Archive for 'oil'

Unexpected?

Published on August 8, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

I thought the bounce would start sometime by the close, but you can’t always get what you want! And the selling in the ES futures continued into the evening. ES has sunk below 1100 last time I looked.

I did nibble on some TBT calls at a time I thought they may have bottomed, but, no such luck. I’m still sitting in them, underwater. So you can say I had a bad day.

It was an incredible day….The VIX advanced 50%, and although I was looking to short the VIX, I sat on my hands. SPY down 7.5%, yes in one day. The Russell was down almost 9% and the “winner” today was the Dow, down “only” 5.5%.

Some sector ETFs really got bruised: FAS the 3X financial bull ETF was down 30%, so the financial XLF was down over 10%. But Bank of America, BAC was down 22%…ouch! Oil and technology weren’t pretty at all.

So is it time for Turnaround Tuesday? China has some announcements overnight and those European PIIGS are still a pain in the ass. And let’s not forget, it’s time for FOMC meeting and announcement. Gee, what are the chances of a rate hike on Tuesday? :roll:

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Solid day, low volume

Published on July 7, 2011, 11:09 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The first of 2 employment days went very well….ADP was good, job claims were good also. The markets gapped up and stayed up. There was a bit of faltering near the end of the day, which may be a set up for tomorrow morning’s NFP report. If it doesn’t meet or exceed newly revised estimates based on ADP, we could go down….hard! Yes, we need to to watch the charts.

I took a small position in USO puts thinking that oil may have topped-off the tank today. It will react to the US Dollar that will react to bonds that will react to the employment report. See how easy it gets? :-(

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Boy oh boy

Published on May 31, 2011, 9:12 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

What a wonderful start to the summer! It is a seasonally strong time. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Today, the day after Memorial Day, Dow has been up 8 of last 11…so the win streak continues. Tomorrow, first trading day of June, Dow up 10 of last 12. Let’s see if that continues also!

Sold out of QQQ this afternoon, but decided to hold on to SPY. Although I’ve got some winners, TBT is still a loser for me. Looks like low interest rates might be a catalyst for the next bull run.

And what’s going on with oil? You would think with the economy taking a double-dip that oil demand would decrease…but no! Still working its way up.

“Al Qaeda has been plotting attacks against oil tankers and refineries for years. Thank goodness that never happened. The price of gas would have skyrocketed.” — Jay Leno

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Deja Vu again

Published on May 11, 2011, 9:54 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Markets were under water oil all day! It was last Thursday all over again. Commodities, all of them, took another bashing all because the US Dollar looks like it may have hit bottom…or at least bouncing strong.

Today I cashed out the short hedges I made yesterday via VIX DUG and IWM. Actually they became profits rather than hedges. I also nibbled on some USO thinking oil will bounce.

Tomorrow and Friday will bring some inflation news via the PPI and CPI, along with Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment. This week looks to end in a wild way. I’m holding some TBT in anticipation of inflation.

Have you noticed how all the down days have a higher volume? Except for a couple hours this morning, it was still a fairly boring day. Maybe with all the eco news coming up we can get some action going. See you in the markets. :mrgreen:

Two economists are walking down the street. One sees a dollar lying on the sidewalk, and says so.
“Obviously not,” says the other. “If there were, someone would have picked it up!”

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Back to work…maybe

Published on April 24, 2011, 9:05 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

After an ugly Monday, good earnings reports propped up the market for the rest of the shortened week. The last few Mondays have been downers…will this Monday be different?

The U.S. Dollar continues to dig a deeper and deeper hole, catching a 73-handle early this evening. Lots of markets still to open over the next 12 hours, but S&P futures are moving up along with silver, gold and oil. Anybody thinking in terms of “bubble.”

Sure would like to see the banks/financials pick up a bit…Can’t go too far without them.

I’m carrying a light load this week as I’m on jury duty call, not knowing when my number comes up. So I may only do some futures scalping in the evenings and early mornings….gotta make some lunch money because the county sure isn’t going to pick up the tab!

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Slip sliding away

Published on March 6, 2011, 11:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Traders ignored the good news in the employment reports and concentrated on oil. Oil was all over the place, along with gold and silver!

Although the unemployment rate slipped down to 8.9%, the ratio of people employed and/or looking for work is the lowest in 27 years (Participation rate). As people get more and more discouraged, more and more are falling off the rolls and have stopped looking for work….and thus, our unemployemnt rate gets better and better.

And the world is as close to war as one can get with uprisings all over the Middle East….and civil war in Libya. But everyone keeps buying the U.S. stock markets. I guess all that money getting printed has to be spent someplace. Can’t fight the Fed!

Index Futures are down Sunday evening and oil is up over $106. March index futures will start rolling over into the June contracts this week and we’ll see a gradual pick up in volume in the June contract.

Oh yeah….this week we celebrate the Happy 2nd Birthday of the Bull market!!

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Coming this week…

Published on February 27, 2011, 10:22 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I went small into this end of month, mutual fund and merger Monday with a couple long-term longs and short-term shorts. Cash is a position….as I am unsure with what is happening at the marketplace. 8) Oscar

Lotsa employement news this week, with Challenger and ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims and Monster Index on Thursday and the BLS Employment report on Friday. Of course they’ll mix in some PMI, ISM, construction spending and the Beige Book to keep the week jumping.

Futures on Sunday evening are down but not by too much…ES down by 5 and YM down by 40…nothing drastic…yet. US dollar and oil not very active at all. I’ll wait for Europe to open. Guess I’ll check on Oscar.

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Gold, silver and oil, oh my!

Published on February 24, 2011, 10:08 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

I awoke today, went to my screens and thought, “boy, I’m early again!” I went a little long near the close yesterday and futures were down big this morning. I took advantage of the situation and closed out all my short positions but one SDS call contract. On the other hand, I did not add to any of my long positions. I’m waiting for Friday to do that.

The big story today was oil, gold and silver and how they reacted to a rumor of Gaddafi being shot. They each tanked hard. So, was the market happy about the supposed shooting or just happy that oil was falling?

GDP and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. This week is turning out to be the heaviest volume of this year and I’m sure Friday will not disappoint.
Big volume this week
Of course there are only 4 days in this week. Also notice that we haven’t broken down underneath the upward trendline going back to last September. 8)

As for the current market he described it as “grinding every day.” But “underneath stocks are exploding, and everything I’m seeing today looks bullish,” he said. “I’m not going to get negative just for the sake of being negative.” He added that it was a strong January and while there’s the potential for dislocation over summer when QE2 ends but that this is shaping up to be “a typically classic year” for the market.– Steve Cohen

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Is it time to buy?

Published on February 23, 2011, 10:41 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Indexes had their biggest two day drop since last summer….which puts us in official correction territory, small but still a correction. I took profits on the majority of my remaining short positions and added a few long positions: C QQQQ and F, and those may be gone by the open on Thursday.

Jobless claims, Durable goods and New Home sales, along with Gas and Oil Inventories should make for an eventful morning. There’s also a lot of Treasuries on sale tomorrow as well. The volatility makes for a good short-term traders market. :)

You never need to chase a trade. The market has plenty of opportunities. The money runs out before the opportunities do. –John Saleeby

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What’s coming?

Published on November 7, 2010, 9:13 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

It was a mixed, breakeven day on Friday. Reports showed the US economy adding 151,000 to payrolls in October, which was more than expected, but the unemplyment rate remained the same. The major market indexes are at new two-year highs, but seem to me that they need to rest or pullback, and did close off their highs.

But looking at a ten-year chart of the S&P, we are about to breakout of a channel going back a decade. Can the markets get more bullish than they are now? Or is it time to come back a little?

On the other hand, oil and precious metals may be in for a ride: Abnormal Silver & Crude Oil Price Moves Should Be Investigated By The SEC. Besides the manipulation, Is Gold’s Recent Move As Bullish As It Seems?

I like this remark from Warren Buffet when he was asked his thoughts about the price of gold and its investment merit, he replied:

“You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy all — not some — but all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobil’s, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?”

That says it all!

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