Trading thoughts, ideas, tips, musings, and pontifications. . .not necessarily in that order.
Just another Manic Monday! After a gap up opening, the indexes took the rest of the day to take out last week’s lows and making a new December low. And although they bounced near the close, especially the NQ, the indexes closed closer to their low of day than to their HOD.
Looking bearish, but maybe a “Turnaround Tuesday” in the making…. if volume picks up. Everybody on holiday already?
Crazy days in the market…up down and all around. On Monday we closed near the highs, on Tuesday near the lows and then near the highs again today. The markets are different things to different traders…hope they’ve been good to you.
Futures are taking off in the early globex session….up up and away! The Dow and Nasdaq are flirting with their 200-day average, while the S&P and Russell are working to move up and get close. If the Eurozone makes a decision we should fly. Otherwise, up, down, up, down….
That’s what traders are thinking….fu! Shifting from short term to longer term bonds and standing still on interest rates? That’s your way of working through a recession/depression?
Even better-than-expected Existing Home Sales couldn’t help. And the strong tech sector finally gave it up also. Looks like we may get some downside follow-through on Thursday. Oh my:!:
The gap up was expected of course, but the reversal after only 15 minutes was a surprise. I unloaded half my long positions at, as it turns out, the high of the day. My thought was to hang on for a continued up move after a pullback. But, the pullback never stopped!
The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq broke through Friday’s low to notch new lows. But, the Russell did not make a new low…although it did close below its 200MA. The Dow tested its 200MA but bounced back up. The S&P broke through its 200 but managed to recover and close above…. A wide range day on all indexes. You would think with all that volatility the VIX would have gone up. Instead the VIX moved down. With the VIX down and the RUT not making new lows, there is some hope for the bulls.
The House passed the latest version of the debt-ceiling crisis bill. Now onto the Senate. It traders hated the announcement of a deal, just what will they do once it’s approved? Well, futures are near the low of the overnight session as I’m writing. Oh my!
A little bit of economic reports every day this week, but Friday brings the monthly aggravation of the employment situation…which can’t be too good. And of course, the never-ending debt-crisis will continue to wreak havoc. Can’t wait til it’s over so we can go back and worry about Europe! 
Gold finally makes it over $1600 mark…now to see if it continues up from here. The markets went in the other direction with gusto. The NYSE Advance/Decline volume was over -10:1 for the bears. The S&P and the Dow, did recover half of its morning losses by the end of the day. The Nasdaq looked strong in the afternoon…maybe in anticipation of IBM earnings…but there was no stopping AAPL! Wow if really took off.
Still a very crazy market…up and down. Remember,
Better to be in cash wishing you were in the market than to be in the market wishing you were in cash!
Be careful out there.
Well, the markets continued their move down today. The eco reports weren’t that great along with some lousy earnings reports. But, there’s always a but, buyers returned in the afternoon, whith the markets closing well of their lows. The Nasdaq Composite actually closed in the green and the SPX almost made it.
And now the futures are also showing some perkiness…matching early returns in the Asian markets!
I think I’ll grab a few bucks from oil and S&P futures before going to bed. Happy trading!
And it was a dull market. It looked good in the premarket with GS’s good report. And GS took off, but it, along with most of the bank/financials turned around and went down. For much of the day the market hung around unchanged, but in the afternoon began a steady climb up and closed near the high of the day.
I got out of the USO puts first thing in the morning, but re-entered and re-exited twice during the day. F didn’t do much but C was strong. AAPL also was strong and popped afterhours. Don’t forget they report on Wednesday.
After hours we had some strong earnings reports from IBM INTC YHOO JNPR which bodes well for the markets tomorrow. Seasonally it’s looking good also. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, The Nasdaq is up 14 of 16 the day before Good Friday and up 10 straight since 2001. Should be an interesting couple of days.
Is it time for takeoff? News, good or bad, the markets go up. Bullish sentiment is running high. Energy and food prices are moving up. Runaway inflation is pending….so….buy, buy, buy?
I am net long, with a few short hedges, but still not confident enough to go all-in…..50% cash, 35% long and 15% short.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, 3rd best for the S&P and 4th best for the Nasdaq. That’s a lot of ammo for the bulls.
I would like to see a pullback before launching just to get out of shorts and load up on a few more longs. But, as we know, the market rarely does what you want it to do. Good luck and happy trading!
“It’s not being wrong that kills you, it’s staying wrong that kills you.”
So we had a negative A/D line, a negative A/D volume, negative S&P, RUT and Nasdaq, all with a positive Dow. Is that a divergence or what? Irrational exhuberance…big time! If you’re a candlestick watcher…Hanging Man galore!
CSCO and ATVI should help bring the indexes down on Thursday, at least the Nasdaq for sure. Other bad reactions include AKAM, ALL, AMKR, TQNT, TEX. Remember, it’s not the reports or the news that matter….it’s the reaction.
But, there’s always a but, futures at the moment are up, even though Asian markets are down. Crazy?
“You’re already starting to see some unrest in some countries as prices go higher. It’s going to cause a lot more social unrest as prices go higher around the world.You will see some governments topple. Is it the end of the world? I don’t think so. It wasn’t in the 70s. But there will be more political instability everywhere.” – Jim Rogers
Except for my shorts on Nasdaq-related issues like QID and QQQQ puts, it was a good day to be short! And the big big winners were the rare-earth related shorts in REE and MCP. I was so giddy, I even wanted to sell my 1970 Rare Earth album…. I Just Want to Celebrate.
Retail sales reports were not as good as expected and started the move down. Then Jobless Claims popped a bit helping to increase the downward pressure. But the techs were not following, keeping the Qs and Nasdaq futures in the green. Just another mixed up crazy day.
Friday we have Non-farm Payroll reports. And the talk all day is that it may be a blowout good number, maybe even 500K jobs in the private sector! With any news, it doesn’t matter if it’s good or bad. it’s a matter of how the market reacts to it that counts. And that’s what worries me…the market being disappointed, even on relatively good numbers. Be afraid, be very afraid! 
| INDU | 0.00 | |||||||
| NASDAQ | 2905.66 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1344.90 | |||||||
| ^RUT | 831.11 | |||||||
| QID | 36.382 | |||||||
| QQQ | 62.05 | |||||||
| QLD | 100.36 | |||||||
| TZA | 18.3401 | |||||||
| SSO | 53.15 | |||||||
| SDS | 16.758 | |||||||
| BGZ | 23.5037 | |||||||
| BGU | 75.50 | |||||||
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