First it was all the pre-market news like Initial Claims, PPI, Empire Index and Philly Fed numbers. Although the numbers weren’t all that bad, actually the IC numbers were pretty good, traders didn’t like them and we went down…and pretty dramatically after the Philly Fed announcement. Oh yeah, and AAPL scheduled a meeting for Friday morning. We meandered down under for the rest of the day.
But (there’s always a but) first rumors then news came out after 3PM that had the markets giddy with happiness. Maybe BP has finally capped the well! BP took off. Then GS might be announcing a settlement with the SEC. GS took off. Then, kaboom, the markets took off, some ending green…others red. Pretty much breakeven for the day, again. Although that was a nice recovery for the indexes.
Then afterhours, GOOG comes out with a crappy earnings report. GOOG quickly dove more than $20 dollars. But (what did I tell you?) it had no affect on the QQQQs or Nasdaq futures or S&P futures. Maybe GOOG is no longer an 800-lb. gorilla? Even AAPL went green afterhours.
Oh yeah, and Congress passed FinReg….ho hum.
Tomorrow brings some very anticipated earnings: GE BAC and C and they might just set the tone for Friday’s trading, well at least until 9:55AM when Michigan Sentiment numbers come out.
You know I’ve been bullish on oil for a couple weeks now, and news like this can really perk it up in short order: An Attack on Iran: Back on the Table. Now, just clean up the mess and maybe we can get back to normal. 
I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.
The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.
Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.
And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”
And people wonder how I got the name of this blog. 
It looked like we could have closed in the green just 5 minutes before the cash close. But bam! The bears gave the bulls a big F U and the ES quickly dove 10 points in as many minutes…and kept going for another 10 minutes into the futures close.
“Death Cross” is upon us…. Y’know when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. They are at the same place right now, but one more down day will send us well below. The last time this bear signal happened was Dec. 2007…. and you do remember what happened the next 15 months, don’t you? You get the picture. But y’know, everybody is talking about it…even the TV talking heads….too much. Since everyone is talking and expecting it, maybe it won’t happen this time….or will it?
The Nasdaq has 10 down days in a row. I think this may be a first. It had 9 straight red days back in 1994. Since we broke the record it may be time for an up day.
Overall it was a very odd day – stocks down, VIX down, bonds down, dollar down, oil down – just about every asset class. So there is a lot of figuring out to do. We do have a good thing about to happen…..Congress is going on break….and when they are not in session, the markets go up. So I’m thinking next week is an up week. 
And if not, at least it will be a short week. Have a wonderful weekend.
If our president can say it on national TV, I can say it on my measily little blog. 
A strange day indeed. The big-caps had a strong day, with the S&P and Dow finishing well into the green. But the small-caps and high-beta stocks were in the red, i.e., the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. Even though some of the indexes closed red, none had a late day selloff. The RUT and Naz both fought hard to get back to breakeven, which is quite different behavior than the recent closes.
So can the up move continue? Looking at the chart we seem to be in a range here that goes back to January/February…a channel for the S&P of 1050 to 1100. So the first thing we have to do is reach the top of the channel. That would be a nice 50 point move.
Then we can see if we can break back out once we get back to 1100….but it looks like just getting there may be a rough ride. 
If you’re the kinda person that reads this blog it’s not news to you that the markets were F’ugly on Friday. If you haven’t heard that then you can catch up here Dow drops 324 points as euro sinks or here U.S. Stocks Tumble as Job Growth Trails Forecasts. I just made some notes on the charts I looked at after the close:
On Thursday, the Nasdaq rose penetrating its 20-day moving average and pushing toward its next objective, the top of the resistance zone at around 2,325. But today happened instead and the Naz went speedily back under its 200-day moving average. It’s been hanging around there for more than 2 weeks. It just may need to gestate for a little while longer.
The Russell 2000 looks a bit better because it looks like it’s just basing between the 20 and 200 moving averages. It did close lower than its May closing low, but still has a while to get down to its February lows.
The S&P and Dow have been meandering under their 200ma for a couple of weeks. Both are getting pretty close to violating their February low closes. All the indexes, along with many individual stocks, have ugly evening star candlestick formations. 
We still need confirmation of the candlesticks on Monday to see if we continue lower. News events over the weekend will control Sunday night futures trading…which in turn will affect the cash markets. I’d sure like to see oil pickup some and the US dollar to dwindle some, but I’ll play ‘em like I see ‘em. Have a great weekend!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
