Tag Archive for 'moving average'

Page 2 of 2

Fade the Gap

Published on June 22, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Fading the opening gap seems to be the thing to do the past two days! The S&P eminis were a total chopfest during the morning. But then the bears took the reigns and bye-bye market. Volume was a bit heavier today than yesterday, but it wasn’t a panic. Yes we had a confirmation of yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern, we lost the 200-day moving average, and we cussed up a storm all afternoon…What the $%@&*!

Many indicators have quickly gone from overbought to oversold. The TRIN closed at 3.82. The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. So I guess we have to wait until tomorrow to see how it goes.

Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .

Looked scary for a while

Published on June 21, 2010, 10:28 pm in Charts, reading and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I didn’t like that move today…a 200 point range on the Dow…and closing near where it opened. Yes, another Doji day (open and close nearly identical) for the Dow. That’s four in a row. The Dow ran up and kissed its 50ma and then retracted for the rest of the day. But y’know, it wasn’t panicky, it wasn’t fast and it wasn’t with any large volume. So we closed right about where we closed on Friday. No big deal really! Tomorrow will say more….unless of course we close at the same place again.

The S&P candle is uglier than the Dow, a big bearish engulfing candlestick, but it still held 1110, its 200-day moving average. We haven’t given anything back since we bounced off 1050 two weeks ago.

Oil almost made it to $80. I unloaded some UCO, but as it turns out I should have unloaded it all. I’m still looking for a nudge of $83 or around the 200-day moving average, but I don’t know how fast that will happen. I guess we need to breakthrough the 50ma before hoping for that.

While I’m hoping for that (remember, hope rhymes with dope), here’s something to look over:

See you in the market! 8)

What a week!

Published on June 18, 2010, 10:11 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. 1 Comment Tags: , , .

After a month of building a base and trying to get back above the 200ma, the S&P has spent 4 days above it but staying close by….maybe building the next base. The 3 doji days each closed just a little bit higher than the previous one. I wouldn’t mind a fast trip to the 50ma.

Ok, so I’m bullish, but I have this one seasonal problem….we have not had an up week after June options expiration since 1998! That may work against me. :cry:

So far, so good

Published on June 16, 2010, 11:37 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

I can’t ever remember the markets actually doing what I thought they would do! The S&P put in a doji day,as did the Dow, one red and one green. They both are still hanging above their respective 200 day moving averages. Considering the ugly news we had in the morning, bad housing, bad building permits and bad FDX guidance, you would think we would crash. But the markets persisted and came out a winner.

Oil had some bad news also with an inventory build, but oil shook it off and moved higher. My UCO position did well accordingly.

This rally has happened on decreasing volume, which by many accounts they say, is not a real rally. Technically all looks in place to keep on moving up…the break of the 200ma, bouncing off fibonacci retracement, MACDs moving up and all kinds of other indicators. But, and there’s always a but, the markets are very news oriented, and it doesn’t take much of a news blurb or even a rumor to send them tumbling down…again.

Was today enough rest? I don’t think so. I’m still looking for another breakeven to down day and again I’m not looking for much, just a little rest. So I’m mostly long with a bit of hedging via TZA. I’ll see how long I hold it.

See you in the trading arena!

F’ugly

Published on June 4, 2010, 11:00 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

If you’re the kinda person that reads this blog it’s not news to you that the markets were F’ugly on Friday. If you haven’t heard that then you can catch up here Dow drops 324 points as euro sinks or here U.S. Stocks Tumble as Job Growth Trails Forecasts. I just made some notes on the charts I looked at after the close:

On Thursday, the Nasdaq rose penetrating its 20-day moving average and pushing toward its next objective, the top of the resistance zone at around 2,325. But today happened instead and the Naz went speedily back under its 200-day moving average. It’s been hanging around there for more than 2 weeks. It just may need to gestate for a little while longer.

The Russell 2000 looks a bit better because it looks like it’s just basing between the 20 and 200 moving averages. It did close lower than its May closing low, but still has a while to get down to its February lows.

The S&P and Dow have been meandering under their 200ma for a couple of weeks. Both are getting pretty close to violating their February low closes. All the indexes, along with many individual stocks, have ugly evening star candlestick formations.

We still need confirmation of the candlesticks on Monday to see if we continue lower. News events over the weekend will control Sunday night futures trading…which in turn will affect the cash markets. I’d sure like to see oil pickup some and the US dollar to dwindle some, but I’ll play ‘em like I see ‘em. Have a great weekend!

I love the smell of stocks crashing in the morning

Published on January 21, 2010, 3:28 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

What a wonderful day for the bears! And going into today I was already set up bearish, but jumped in even more in the pre-market. I had 9 equities trades and 3 futures trade today, and it ended up being the best day this year…all by noon!

The markets all went down and hit bottom by noontime. After that they just meandered up and down a few points and ended near their lows. ES futures had almost 3 and a half million contracts traded today…haven’t seen that since last year. And the VIX caught a 22-handle, up almost 20%. Looks like fear and volatility may return to the marketplace. Thanks to the Prez for injecting it.

It’s also the first time we had 2 down days in a row since early December. That’s over 400 points from the Dow in 2 days. The Dow ran right thru its 50 day moving average, while the S&P came to rest on its own 50dma. After such a big red down candle I think we may have a bounce or at least a narrow range inside day. If the selling continues, oh boy, it could get nasty. :evil:

Isn’t it funny when you walk into a investment firm, and you see all of the financial advisors watching CNBC — that gives me the same feeling of confidence I would have if I walked into the Mayo-clinic or Sloan Kettering and all the medical staff were watching General Hospital…

– Senior portfolio manager, UBS

Here’s a good ying-yang story…..the ying:
Obama hits Wall Street, pushes for bank limits

…and the yang:
Geithner has reservations on US bank limits

And I guess the Democrats haven’t got the message from the Tuesday election results. But then again, Senator Dodd isn’t running for re-election:
Hands Off Our Slush Fund! Thune Amendment Fails