Diving right from the git-go, the morning turned out to be a wait-and-see when low would be low enough. By noontime the low was hit and the slow climb up started and continued for the rest of the day. At one point all the indexes were green, but they couldn’t hold it. The Nasdaq was able to close in the green and the Russell was nearby but closed slightly red. I was disappointed that the markets weren’t more volatile for an options expiration….volume was down from yesterday also. Can’t really decide if Friday was bearish or bullish. 
The S&P is still bouncing within this 3-month long channel.
If it’s going to obey the channel, it needs to bounce….a dead-cat or bull resumption bounce.
We’re in the summer doldrums and still have another 2 weeks to go. We’ve also had a lot of bad economic news but the market has been able to maintain itself within the channel. It still has not challenged the May, June or July lows….although it is trading below the 20- 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The semiconductors SOX had a good week, but we still need those banks BKX to show some enthusiasm. And oil sure could use a fire under its barrel.
Charts are very schizophrenic! Arguments can be made for a long and/or short position. Cash may be the position of choice, at least until the charts points one way….or the other. 
It was a good week for the bulls, except for Wednesday giving us a spook. We’ve made new July highs in the indexes and are now shooting for the June highs. The Dow Jones Industrials are the closest, sitting between its 200ma and the high.
The Russell 2000 is also already above its 200ma and July highs, but looking to get to its June highs….but that is still some distance to go. 
The S&P 500 looks to be the weakest, still below its 200ma, but its June highs are also close to the 200.
Overall, the charts are bullish.
Last week we hardly had any economic data besides earnings reports. But this week the data picks up along with earnings reports.
Monday, 7/26:
10:00 – New Home Sales
Tuesday, 7/27:
09:00 – Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 7/28:
08:30 – Durable Goods Orders
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 – Beige Book
Thursday, 7/29:
08:30 – Unemployment Claims
Friday, 7/30:
08:30 – Advance GDP Price Index
08:30 – Employment Cost Index
09:45 – Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
09:55 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
And then we’re all done with July! Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!
I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.
The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.
Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.
And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”
And people wonder how I got the name of this blog. 
Last week, the indexes fell on average 5%. Discretionary consumer stocks, industrials, and financials were hit hardest, which pretty much put the S&P’s 50-day moving average to cross below the 200-day moving average….or the “famous” Death-Cross. Whenever a shorter moving average crosses below a longer moving average, well, the bear is back.
Last night it looked like the bear had it well under control, but by this morning, the bulls were back. For the first couple of hours, it even looked like we would have a trend-day-up. Oil led the stock markets up. But, the bulls couldn’t get their act together and began to waiver at noon, and spent the rest of the day snorting: What the $%@&*!
The S&P ended closing right where it opened, creating another doji day or another indecisive day.
Remember that at the close on Wednesday some inverse, or bearish, ETFs will undergo a 5-to-1 reverse split: ERY, DRV, TZA, and TYP. That is, if you own 500 shares of TZA Wednesday night, you will own 100 shares of TZA at a higher price…specifically 5 times the closing price….on Thursday morning.
So watch it! Happy trading 
It looked like we could have closed in the green just 5 minutes before the cash close. But bam! The bears gave the bulls a big F U and the ES quickly dove 10 points in as many minutes…and kept going for another 10 minutes into the futures close.
“Death Cross” is upon us…. Y’know when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. They are at the same place right now, but one more down day will send us well below. The last time this bear signal happened was Dec. 2007…. and you do remember what happened the next 15 months, don’t you? You get the picture. But y’know, everybody is talking about it…even the TV talking heads….too much. Since everyone is talking and expecting it, maybe it won’t happen this time….or will it?
The Nasdaq has 10 down days in a row. I think this may be a first. It had 9 straight red days back in 1994. Since we broke the record it may be time for an up day.
Overall it was a very odd day – stocks down, VIX down, bonds down, dollar down, oil down – just about every asset class. So there is a lot of figuring out to do. We do have a good thing about to happen…..Congress is going on break….and when they are not in session, the markets go up. So I’m thinking next week is an up week. 
And if not, at least it will be a short week. Have a wonderful weekend.
The news from the G20 meeting sounds encouraging and oil looks like it wishes to be a leader. But the weekly S&P chart put in an ugly bearish engulfing pattern.
The daily chart though, looks like it poked out a bottom on Friday and may want to try the green side of the market for at least a few days.
The week prior to a holiday is usually bullish, so we have that seasonal advantage working for the bulls. Next Monday the markets will be closed for the 4th of July holiday, but this Friday morning we have the always fun and wild monthly employment report. So the markets will be fun again this week. Be careful and happy trading!
Fading the opening gap seems to be the thing to do the past two days! The S&P eminis were a total chopfest during the morning. But then the bears took the reigns and bye-bye market. Volume was a bit heavier today than yesterday, but it wasn’t a panic. Yes we had a confirmation of yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern, we lost the 200-day moving average, and we cussed up a storm all afternoon…What the $%@&*!
Many indicators have quickly gone from overbought to oversold. The TRIN closed at 3.82. The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. So I guess we have to wait until tomorrow to see how it goes.
Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .
I didn’t like that move today…a 200 point range on the Dow…and closing near where it opened. Yes, another Doji day (open and close nearly identical) for the Dow. That’s four in a row. The Dow ran up and kissed its 50ma and then retracted for the rest of the day. But y’know, it wasn’t panicky, it wasn’t fast and it wasn’t with any large volume. So we closed right about where we closed on Friday. No big deal really! Tomorrow will say more….unless of course we close at the same place again.
The S&P candle is uglier than the Dow, a big bearish engulfing candlestick, but it still held 1110, its 200-day moving average. We haven’t given anything back since we bounced off 1050 two weeks ago.
Oil almost made it to $80. I unloaded some UCO, but as it turns out I should have unloaded it all. I’m still looking for a nudge of $83 or around the 200-day moving average, but I don’t know how fast that will happen. I guess we need to breakthrough the 50ma before hoping for that.
While I’m hoping for that (remember, hope rhymes with dope), here’s something to look over:
See you in the market!
After a month of building a base and trying to get back above the 200ma, the S&P has spent 4 days above it but staying close by….maybe building the next base. The 3 doji days each closed just a little bit higher than the previous one. I wouldn’t mind a fast trip to the 50ma.
Ok, so I’m bullish, but I have this one seasonal problem….we have not had an up week after June options expiration since 1998! That may work against me. 
I can’t ever remember the markets actually doing what I thought they would do! The S&P put in a doji day,as did the Dow, one red and one green. They both are still hanging above their respective 200 day moving averages. Considering the ugly news we had in the morning, bad housing, bad building permits and bad FDX guidance, you would think we would crash. But the markets persisted and came out a winner.
Oil had some bad news also with an inventory build, but oil shook it off and moved higher. My UCO position did well accordingly.
This rally has happened on decreasing volume, which by many accounts they say, is not a real rally. Technically all looks in place to keep on moving up…the break of the 200ma, bouncing off fibonacci retracement, MACDs moving up and all kinds of other indicators. But, and there’s always a but, the markets are very news oriented, and it doesn’t take much of a news blurb or even a rumor to send them tumbling down…again.
Was today enough rest? I don’t think so. I’m still looking for another breakeven to down day and again I’m not looking for much, just a little rest. So I’m mostly long with a bit of hedging via TZA. I’ll see how long I hold it.
See you in the trading arena!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
