Tag Archive for 'moving average'

Getting close

Published on July 31, 2011, 7:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Traders are on the edge of their seats waiting for the official word….will they or won’t they?

Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason!

On Friday, the S&P and Russell tested their 200 day moving averages….and successfully bounced off it.
S&P July 29 tests 200MA
Futures are giddy Sunday evening and anticipating a resolution to the debt-crisis as they pop 20 points (ES) at the get go. Still a very news driven market. :-(

We’re going to start off the week with ISM Manufacturing numbers along with Construction Spending. But remember there’s a big employment report on Friday!

I bet on a resolution on Friday so I’m long the Russell and financials. Now here’s hoping that this evenings happiness lasts at least until Morning!

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Wasn’t that nice!

Published on May 18, 2011, 9:27 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Although I enjoyed the move up today, I’m a bit worried about the much lower volume than Monday and Tuesday. It tells me that there are more sellers than buyers out there!

But, the 50 day simple moving average held on yesterday and today to show solid support.
S&P May 18, 2011
If it breaks we may be in for a swoosh down.

We’ve got some news from Great Britian overnight, specifically Retail Sales…and Thursday morning there’s a lot of news like Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Survey and Leading Indicators. Futures are quiet, hovering around breakeven. Let’s look out for pinning of major stocks and indexes starting tomorrow and ending Friday. Let’s see how this plays out. Good Luck!

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Dullsville to Crazy?

Published on October 31, 2010, 11:53 am in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The markets didn’t do much last week. Just look at the S&P, 5 days of dojis…it opened on Monday at 1184.74 and closed on Friday at 1183.26. Less than 1.75 points opening to closing range, although there was a 26 point high low range for the week.

You can see it on the weekly:

The weekly 200MA is the line in the sand if the S&P is going to go up!

Next week should bring lots of excitement, especially Wednesday. Election results will be known in the morning and the FOMC explains their position on Quantitative Easing 2 in the afternoon. And if that’s not enough, Friday brings us the monthly report on the Employment picture.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the First trading day in November: Dow down 4 of last 5. Dow was up 0.8% last year.

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A techno-weekend

Published on October 10, 2010, 11:19 pm in Charts, reading and Tools. Closed Tags: , , .

I spent this weekend building my new trading PC, searching the Internet for tech support and running to Best Buy to pick up a few things I missed. ;) But, by Sunday night I had Windows 7 installed on the SSD, or Tradestation, especially when backtesting strategies. I will document all I did and will put it up on the website, going through the process of why I picked the parts I incorporated into the PC….but I want to get it into the trading mix first.

I’m still not done, there’s a lot of data I need to extract from the old PC to the new, but, in the mean time, I’m trying to review the charts on my backup machine. Boy, the indexes sure look like they want to ride the bull! The S&P has been running up the 8EMA since the August lows. The rest are similar, but this whole volume thing has still got me wondering where the money is coming from….the Fed? GS? People still employed?

Here’s an idea: Americans Are Saving Too Much Money, So We Need Them Spending Again.

I guess I’ll get some sleep before trying to connect the new machine to the Internet. 8O

Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!

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Channeling

Published on August 22, 2010, 6:31 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Diving right from the git-go, the morning turned out to be a wait-and-see when low would be low enough. By noontime the low was hit and the slow climb up started and continued for the rest of the day. At one point all the indexes were green, but they couldn’t hold it. The Nasdaq was able to close in the green and the Russell was nearby but closed slightly red. I was disappointed that the markets weren’t more volatile for an options expiration….volume was down from yesterday also. Can’t really decide if Friday was bearish or bullish. :?

The S&P is still bouncing within this 3-month long channel.

If it’s going to obey the channel, it needs to bounce….a dead-cat or bull resumption bounce.

We’re in the summer doldrums and still have another 2 weeks to go. We’ve also had a lot of bad economic news but the market has been able to maintain itself within the channel. It still has not challenged the May, June or July lows….although it is trading below the 20- 50- and 200-day moving averages.

The semiconductors SOX had a good week, but we still need those banks BKX to show some enthusiasm. And oil sure could use a fire under its barrel.

Charts are very schizophrenic! Arguments can be made for a long and/or short position. Cash may be the position of choice, at least until the charts points one way….or the other. :idea:

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Bull Fun!

Published on July 25, 2010, 10:09 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

It was a good week for the bulls, except for Wednesday giving us a spook. We’ve made new July highs in the indexes and are now shooting for the June highs. The Dow Jones Industrials are the closest, sitting between its 200ma and the high.

The Russell 2000 is also already above its 200ma and July highs, but looking to get to its June highs….but that is still some distance to go.

The S&P 500 looks to be the weakest, still below its 200ma, but its June highs are also close to the 200.

Overall, the charts are bullish.

Last week we hardly had any economic data besides earnings reports. But this week the data picks up along with earnings reports.
Monday, 7/26:
10:00 – New Home Sales
Tuesday, 7/27:
09:00 – Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 7/28:
08:30 – Durable Goods Orders
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 – Beige Book
Thursday, 7/29:
08:30 – Unemployment Claims
Friday, 7/30:
08:30 – Advance GDP Price Index
08:30 – Employment Cost Index
09:45 – Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
09:55 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

And then we’re all done with July! Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!

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What Fun!

Published on July 13, 2010, 10:55 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.

The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.

Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.

And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”

And people wonder how I got the name of this blog. 8)

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Gee, it sure felt like Monday

Published on July 6, 2010, 10:03 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Last week, the indexes fell on average 5%. Discretionary consumer stocks, industrials, and financials were hit hardest, which pretty much put the S&P’s 50-day moving average to cross below the 200-day moving average….or the “famous” Death-Cross. Whenever a shorter moving average crosses below a longer moving average, well, the bear is back.

Last night it looked like the bear had it well under control, but by this morning, the bulls were back. For the first couple of hours, it even looked like we would have a trend-day-up. Oil led the stock markets up. But, the bulls couldn’t get their act together and began to waiver at noon, and spent the rest of the day snorting: What the $%@&*!

The S&P ended closing right where it opened, creating another doji day or another indecisive day.

Remember that at the close on Wednesday some inverse, or bearish, ETFs will undergo a 5-to-1 reverse split: ERY, DRV, TZA, and TYP. That is, if you own 500 shares of TZA Wednesday night, you will own 100 shares of TZA at a higher price…specifically 5 times the closing price….on Thursday morning.

So watch it! Happy trading :!:

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Not very festive

Published on July 2, 2010, 9:10 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

It looked like we could have closed in the green just 5 minutes before the cash close. But bam! The bears gave the bulls a big F U and the ES quickly dove 10 points in as many minutes…and kept going for another 10 minutes into the futures close.

“Death Cross” is upon us…. Y’know when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. They are at the same place right now, but one more down day will send us well below. The last time this bear signal happened was Dec. 2007…. and you do remember what happened the next 15 months, don’t you? You get the picture. But y’know, everybody is talking about it…even the TV talking heads….too much. Since everyone is talking and expecting it, maybe it won’t happen this time….or will it?

The Nasdaq has 10 down days in a row. I think this may be a first. It had 9 straight red days back in 1994. Since we broke the record it may be time for an up day.

Overall it was a very odd day – stocks down, VIX down, bonds down, dollar down, oil down – just about every asset class. So there is a lot of figuring out to do. We do have a good thing about to happen…..Congress is going on break….and when they are not in session, the markets go up. So I’m thinking next week is an up week. :mrgreen:

And if not, at least it will be a short week. Have a wonderful weekend.

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Let’s ride a bull

Published on June 27, 2010, 10:55 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The news from the G20 meeting sounds encouraging and oil looks like it wishes to be a leader. But the weekly S&P chart put in an ugly bearish engulfing pattern.

The daily chart though, looks like it poked out a bottom on Friday and may want to try the green side of the market for at least a few days.

The week prior to a holiday is usually bullish, so we have that seasonal advantage working for the bulls. Next Monday the markets will be closed for the 4th of July holiday, but this Friday morning we have the always fun and wild monthly employment report. So the markets will be fun again this week. Be careful and happy trading!

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