If you’re unemployed you’re most likely a man, and a white one at that! Check out this WSJ Interactive Graph and watch the unemployment number grow, first by sector and then by gender. The charts show who has been hit the hardest!
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Days like today are so much fun! Isn’t it wonderful what a little good news can do in an oversold market! Now can it last for another day or two and takes us into the holday all happy and giddy?
China PMI got the ball rolling yesterday, but strangely enough, the China market didn’t think it was that good. This evening China seems to be realizing it had a good report, or more appropriately, it’s just following what the US market did today.
More news tomorrow: Jobless CLaims, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, and let’s not forget, Ben Bernanke is speaking again. Watch volume as it may go down as traders wait for Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report.
The stock market is the biggest junkie in the world. The Fed says that we don’t need no stinkin’ quantitative easing, which should be good news, but the market quickly goes into DT’s and trembles all the way down. “But every junkie is like a setting sun.”
No QE means a strong economy, it means a recovery is in process! Oh, but it also means a strong dollar…and at the present the stock market does NOT like a strong dollar. So today, everytime the dollar shot up, the stock market, along with the oil market, moved down. And it seemed to happen about 20 times today!
Volume doubled yesterday’s totals and I think it should continue throughout the week, even though we are leading up to a holiday weekend. Too much news going on which will stir up the pot. Tonight I was waiting for China’s PMI, which has come out at 51.7, up from last months 51.2. And by morning we should have heard some GDP’s from European countries. We’ve also got ADP payroll report Wednesday morning, along with Construction Spending and oil inventories and more.
So much going on, Australia GDP up along with China PMI so futures are moving up strong also. Let’s hope it lasts until US markets open….and through the day tomorrow! 
Wow, what an an illiquid violent market today, with big bid/ask spreads. The first 30 minutes had me feeling real good about today’s market, but it quickly dwindled away. The markets closed near their lows….looking like a setup for a another drop tomorrow. The only hope is that it finds a bottom and starts a climb….turnaround Tuesday? Wobbly Wednesday? Thoroughly-ugly Thursday? F’ked-up Friday?
Tuesday we have Existing Home Sales and Wednesday is New Home Sales. Thursday brings us the usual Jobless Claims and the biggie of the week is on Friday, GDP with a smattering of Consumer Sentiment.
Now here’s a hypothesis…..traders think that home sales, unemployment and GDP are going to suck, so they started the sell off today. So if any of those reports come in just a little bit better than expected, we just may have a bottom and a take-off to the upside. Well….it is possible. 
And remember…
Hoping or Wishing or Praying = exit position immediately!
Sure we ended in the green…and we rallied early in the day with the Dow coming from a 75 point deficit up 142 points! But, there’s always a but, the Dow closed at +9 and the Dow futures (YM) continued to sell off after the cash close. All the index futures closed in the red. These end of day selloffs are getting consistently ugly. 
We have two chances tomorrow of making some news that moves: Initial Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. I think I’ll sit and wait.
The low of the day was put in at the open on Thursday, moved up quickly and then just meandered in a narrow range for the rest of the day. Can we have an up day on Friday the 13th? I’m thinking we can and should!
Yesterday I bought TNA afterhours, looking to hold on for a week maybe. Instead I sold at the pre-market open for about 60 cents profit, which was nice. But before the cash markets opened, TNA had dropped precipitously and I got back in and got back out an hour later. Man, that was crazy…and lucky…oh yeah, and profitable!
Speaking of crazy, have you seen NFLX over the past 2 weeks? It’s been going straight up and making new highs today! Judging by that action, the market is thinking everyone is going to be unemployed soon and watching movies from home….confirming the jobless claims and employment reports! 
Tomorrow will start with CPI and retail sales reports. And soon after the open we get Consumer Sentiment. That should make for a wild Friday the 13th. And watch out for black cats and don’t walk under any ladders.
One more thing….Trade what you see not what you think. Here is a funny cartoon video:Trading what you think. 
Some of the ugliest retail numbers this morning got bought up throughout the day as the retail sector was on top of the heap. I guess the market thought they were cheap enough.
Traders were mulling around not doing much except waiting for Friday’s NFP report. Trading volume was low….way low! Estimates and expectations abound on NFP. I’m still net long but have cut down a lot during the week. Whatever happens tomorrow, I’ll fade the gap…either buying on a gap down or selling on a gap up.
The rest of the month we get a break because Congress goes on leave…. Of babies and hammers. Stocks tend to do better when Congress is not in session. So we should have a good time until after Labor Day.
Well you’re probably thinking I’m talking about our president, but no. A few years before him my wife was born, so happy b’day honey!
The markets must have been happy also….but I think it was more a reaction to reports. Although we had good reports for ADP Employment and ISM Services, China came out saying they were going to stress test their banks for a 60% drop in mortgage value. Hmmm, sounds like they may know something? Well it was enough to spook traders and the markets came down pretty hard….and that was the first hour! 
The rest of the day the markets just meandered up and down, but closing green with an A/D volume of over 2:1. So we’re still sitting good, but trepidation about Friday’s employment report may keep things subdued for Thursday. On the other side of that argument, Thursday’s Initial Claims report may stir it up!
Here’s to the rest of the week acting like the first part….profitable. Now, back to the birthday party. 
Futures were up overnight and then Initial Claims came out not so bad, so the market was going to have a decent day. Then, St. Louis Fed Prez said we were close to jap-style deflation and the markets broke down! It was a wild ride. It looks like there is a bull snorting in one corner and a bear growling in the other….there’s a fight going on…and no apparent winner…yet.
All the indexes closed barely in the red. But we went up then way down and then fought back to breakeven. The Industrials and Russell are still above their 200ma and the S&P is still below….not much change this week….but it sure hasn’t felt that way!
I was lucky enough to have time to get out of some, but not all, longs at the market open. I tried to hedge with ES but got chopped to bits every time. I finally just quit trying, and by the end of the day, all the positions I had remaining returned to where they started.
On Friday we have lots of numbers coming out: GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Now, this afternoon I would have thought traders would have stayed away, but volume increased in the afternoon and GS really took off. Do you think GS knows something about those numbers?
The blades have to be getting dull on this chopper. All the indexes ended in the red, off anywhere from a quarter percent to one and a half percent. Volume was extremely low and Advance/decline volumes were barely down two to one.
But which way do we go now? I’m positioned on the long side, so I want the market to go long. Unfortunately, the market never does what I want it to do. So, play the charts. But I can’t tell from the charts. The only play I have is to tighten stops and maybe hedge a bit with TZA BGZ or maybe just S&P futures.
I’ll be listening in on the DRYS conference call on Thursday morning. Earnings came out after the close today and looked good. Now we need some good news…like an IPO or a sale.
Thursday brings us the largest single day of earnings reports of the season. And let’s not forget our weekly headache of Initial Unemployment Claims. Something’s got to move in a confident direction, either up or down….soon, I hope. Good luck tomorrow!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
