Tag Archive for 'futures'

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Which way do we go?

Published on May 15, 2011, 9:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Over the last 10 days, 4 have been up and 6 down and the net change has been small, about 33 points in the S&P, or about 2%. We closed below a so-called support area of 1340 and another 2% will get us close to 1300. Futures are moving to the downside Sunday evening, along with early Asian markets.

Sure it’s long way to Monday morning, but the biggest moves in futures have been during the overnight lately, so I keep tabs on that, but it doesn’t always predict what will happen in the morning. I do like to trade the Globex because it’s slower than the US cash hours and I can practice futures trading with less emotion!

My TBT and XLF positions may be stopping out soon if interest rates and the banks don’t start moving up soon. Options expiration week should stir things up pretty good. We also have a lot of housing data this week along with FOMC meeting minutes. Volatility is always good for traders and am looking forward to it. Happy trading!

“I hear that you dropped some money on Wall Street. Were you a bull or a bear?”
“Neither, just a plain simple ass.”

Back to work…maybe

Published on April 24, 2011, 9:05 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

After an ugly Monday, good earnings reports propped up the market for the rest of the shortened week. The last few Mondays have been downers…will this Monday be different?

The U.S. Dollar continues to dig a deeper and deeper hole, catching a 73-handle early this evening. Lots of markets still to open over the next 12 hours, but S&P futures are moving up along with silver, gold and oil. Anybody thinking in terms of “bubble.”

Sure would like to see the banks/financials pick up a bit…Can’t go too far without them.

I’m carrying a light load this week as I’m on jury duty call, not knowing when my number comes up. So I may only do some futures scalping in the evenings and early mornings….gotta make some lunch money because the county sure isn’t going to pick up the tab!

Snoozer

Published on March 22, 2011, 8:55 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Not much happened today….a very narrow-range day. Indexes closed very near unchanged. Oh well, sometimes you just have to rest.

Porsche recently reported that sales increased by 29 percent during 2010. Even Porsche jokes are coming back into style….

Question: Why did the blonde buy a police car?

Answer: She saw “911” on the back and thought it was a Porsche.

Tricky!

Published on March 14, 2011, 9:07 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Well a fade would have been good…but only if you waited until the afternoon! Markets were very emotional, choppy, and wild….but nice to trade, no, to scalp. Any trade I made today was for less than 2 minutes. I was grabbing 3 to 4 ticks in the ES e-mini.

While markets recovered in the sfternoon, futures are now testing the Monday session lows….plenty of time to break lower, or maybe break to the upside. We’ll see by morning.

Here’s an FYI as we wait for March 17th:

Bishop Patrick, St. Patrick, passed away in Saul, Ireland on March 17th, 461 AD. St Patrick’s Day has been celebrated in his honor since his passing.

On March 17th, 1762 in New York City, St. Patrick’s Day was celebrated with the first St Patrick’s Day parade up Fifth Avenue and has been a tradition ever since.

Meltdown?

Published on March 14, 2011, 9:18 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Sentiment might think that we should see a market meltdown because of all the bad news from Japan, and let’s not forget the Middle East. But, the market has a good record of absorbing bad news fairly quickly.

Also, some companies may see a bit of a benefit: autos, semiconductors, electronics….those industries/companies that are outside of Japan. They will also need a lot of resources to rebuild: construction, lumber, oil.

This morning looks like a gap down. We’ll have to see if we’ll fade the gap. I am 55% cash, 20% short and 25% long. Remeber, cash is a position. Better to be out wishing you were in, rather than being in wishing you were out!

Remember to pray for Japan, its people and their rescuers.

Oh sh!t

Published on March 10, 2011, 10:04 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The markets gapped down and continued down without looking back. Reasons were all from overseas…China, Europe, Middle East…maybe this recovery is not looking so hot. I was caught bug-eyed and flat-footed and pretty much sta and watched. Took a few scalps on the ES for breakeven. I usually don’t trade rollover.

I expect a bounce after this big of a down move. TRIN says as much also…. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. We closed at 2.13 today. But nothing is ever 100%.

Back on March 1st I talked about the S&P going back to test its pre-mideast crisis levels…1294. Well look where we went down to…..

S&P Mar 10
Now the big question…will we bounce from the test or go on though it?

Rollover

Published on March 9, 2011, 9:21 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The morning had some nice volatility for trading, but by lunchtime it was a snoozer. Still had the opportunity to cash out of some shorts. On balance, I am about 20% short and 40% long…the rest in cash.

The market held up well today, putting in a narrow-range day. Trading the ES futures was interesting in the morning but settled into that narrow range after the first couple hours.

Remember that the indexes rollover from the March contract to the June contract on Thursday. Trading volume should progressively move to the June contract throughout the day, but you can keep trading the March until next week.

What’s the difference between a broker & a trader? Brokers work to build relationships, traders just want to get laid!

Slip sliding away

Published on March 6, 2011, 11:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Traders ignored the good news in the employment reports and concentrated on oil. Oil was all over the place, along with gold and silver!

Although the unemployment rate slipped down to 8.9%, the ratio of people employed and/or looking for work is the lowest in 27 years (Participation rate). As people get more and more discouraged, more and more are falling off the rolls and have stopped looking for work….and thus, our unemployemnt rate gets better and better.

And the world is as close to war as one can get with uprisings all over the Middle East….and civil war in Libya. But everyone keeps buying the U.S. stock markets. I guess all that money getting printed has to be spent someplace. Can’t fight the Fed!

Index Futures are down Sunday evening and oil is up over $106. March index futures will start rolling over into the June contracts this week and we’ll see a gradual pick up in volume in the June contract.

Oh yeah….this week we celebrate the Happy 2nd Birthday of the Bull market!!

Coming this week…

Published on February 27, 2011, 10:22 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I went small into this end of month, mutual fund and merger Monday with a couple long-term longs and short-term shorts. Cash is a position….as I am unsure with what is happening at the marketplace. 8) Oscar

Lotsa employement news this week, with Challenger and ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims and Monster Index on Thursday and the BLS Employment report on Friday. Of course they’ll mix in some PMI, ISM, construction spending and the Beige Book to keep the week jumping.

Futures on Sunday evening are down but not by too much…ES down by 5 and YM down by 40…nothing drastic…yet. US dollar and oil not very active at all. I’ll wait for Europe to open. Guess I’ll check on Oscar.

Premonitions

Published on February 21, 2011, 10:49 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

While the U.S. took a market holiday, the futures market was open for part of the morning, and boy did it react to all this geopolitical activism. ES futures are down 1%….muted compared to the pop oil has taken.

In a few hours we will see how the markets take the slow Monday grind down. And will oil break to 100 dollar mark? Gold is over the $1400 mark….now to see if that holds.

Along with the turbulence in the Mideast, earthquake in New Sealand and downgrades of Japn, we’ll hear how Consumer Confidence is doing and the Home Price Index. I’m thinking volume may be up tomorrow along with volatility.