Tag Archive for 'futures'

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Up, down and around

Published on August 17, 2011, 12:07 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

It was a day that accomodated the bulls as well as the bears….and a great day if you go both ways! Volume increased a bit from yesterday, about a half-million contracts in the ES.

While economic news in the US was good, Europe continues to be a world-wide downer. So if Europe could get its sh!t together, I think we could be doing a lot better.

It still is options expiration week….a week designed to take as much money from as many people as money managers can. Watch those puts and calls!

Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .

Up, down and back to even

Published on August 1, 2011, 10:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

The gap up was expected of course, but the reversal after only 15 minutes was a surprise. I unloaded half my long positions at, as it turns out, the high of the day. My thought was to hang on for a continued up move after a pullback. But, the pullback never stopped!

The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq broke through Friday’s low to notch new lows. But, the Russell did not make a new low…although it did close below its 200MA. The Dow tested its 200MA but bounced back up. The S&P broke through its 200 but managed to recover and close above…. A wide range day on all indexes. You would think with all that volatility the VIX would have gone up. Instead the VIX moved down. With the VIX down and the RUT not making new lows, there is some hope for the bulls.

The House passed the latest version of the debt-ceiling crisis bill. Now onto the Senate. It traders hated the announcement of a deal, just what will they do once it’s approved? Well, futures are near the low of the overnight session as I’m writing. Oh my!

A little bit of economic reports every day this week, but Friday brings the monthly aggravation of the employment situation…which can’t be too good. And of course, the never-ending debt-crisis will continue to wreak havoc. Can’t wait til it’s over so we can go back and worry about Europe! ;-)

Getting close

Published on July 31, 2011, 7:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Traders are on the edge of their seats waiting for the official word….will they or won’t they?

Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason!

On Friday, the S&P and Russell tested their 200 day moving averages….and successfully bounced off it.
S&P July 29 tests 200MA
Futures are giddy Sunday evening and anticipating a resolution to the debt-crisis as they pop 20 points (ES) at the get go. Still a very news driven market. :-(

We’re going to start off the week with ISM Manufacturing numbers along with Construction Spending. But remember there’s a big employment report on Friday!

I bet on a resolution on Friday so I’m long the Russell and financials. Now here’s hoping that this evenings happiness lasts at least until Morning!

The debt bet

Published on July 24, 2011, 10:52 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

So now traders are playing the raise the debt ceiling bingo. Tonight it looks like a big no…or at least the uncertainty is pretty scary! The ES futures opened 18 points lower. That’s real scary. Is it time for a crash? Let’s see what Monday brings.

Bend over

Published on July 12, 2011, 10:09 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Euro really sunk (stunk) overnight as the euro problems moved from Greece to Italy. Italy’s GDP is 6 times bigger than Greece’s, so bailing them out would take a lot more euros…and dollars. Indexes just wobbled for most of the day until rumors of QE3 and an end to the Libya problems sent the markets running up….bolstered with a successful Italin bond auction. But it didn’t last long. After making a new high of day about 90 minutes before the close, and Moody’s downgrade if Ireland’s bonds, it all went to hell in a handbasket! Sure it didn’t go back to the overnight lows, but definitely lower than the breakeven area the markets loved all day.

Sure the day closed ominously, but this is opex week and markets are geared to screw both the bulls and the bears. They definitely felt it in the rear today!

…Easy go

Published on July 11, 2011, 9:55 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

All the July gains disappeared today…One of the ugliest market days I’ve seen. The NYSE A/D volume was -30:1 and TRIN was 5.07 …yes ugly, but now, all extremely bullish readings! On the TRIN, or The Arms Index, it says a close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. Remember though, it is options expiration week!

Futures are continuing the drop in the early overnight session…uh oh!

Happy Monday

Published on June 27, 2011, 11:20 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

I sure hope we haven’t used up all the summer rally in just one day. A nice up day on Monday usually looks for a nice down day on Tuesday. But do we really have to?

Took profits on some QQQ Jul 54 calls, then just sat on my hands.

ES futures sitting in a narrow 3 point range so far, but we have the whole night before us.

Finally

Published on June 9, 2011, 8:08 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

We finally break the six in a row down days for a small reprieve. The last half hour sure was ugly though. Just a short stop on the way to 1250? Maybe, just maybe, we get some follow-thru on Friday.

ES starting turning over to the September contracts, so there was a lot of hanky-panky going on. Total volume was high on the combination of June and September futures, but September was still low. By the end of the day on Friday we should see greater volume in the U contracts rather than the M.

Happy trading! I’m heading out for a birthday celebration!

Six-peat

Published on June 8, 2011, 9:04 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

On my! If we don’t recover 1280 tomorrow, the next major stop is 1250. I’ve been thinking we would bounce for the past 2 days and it hasn’t. On the other hand it really hasn’t gone down that much after Monday, although today’s down move had the greatest volume since the beginning of May.

The markets have been very news driven, or should I say rumor driven this week. There is no “real” news out this week, but a lot of rumors, Greece, inflation, defaults, debt ceilings…and on and on!

My bigest position is cash, cuz I can’t figure this market at all. I hope you’re playing it safe. Happy trading and be careful out there.

Rest in Peace

Published on May 25, 2011, 10:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Mark Haines dies at age 65. Prayers to him and his family. The world responded as when any icon passes away. I’ve watched him for may many years….about 15. It really is a personal loss for many viewers.

The markets started negative but were able recover to stop from having 4 negative days in a row. Looking a lot like a short term bounce here. Markets usually have a positive bent leading up to a patriotic holiday. Since this is the first summer holiday, I think volume should go downhill from here. ES traded 2.1 million contracts today.

We have GDP and Jobless Claims reports on Thrusday which may just set a tone for the market. Pending Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending on Friday….with really low volume. Futures are up, so far, this evening.

We have met the enemy, and they are us. –Pogo