Tag Archive for 'FOMC'

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QE2 is dead, long live QE2

Published on June 22, 2011, 10:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Are we done or are we not? Reading this New York Fed release, Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities, it looks like it will continue as a “once-a-month” version. At least for a while, maybe the next Jackson Hole get together, and then announce something a bit more definite.

The day was mediocre, low volume, no action until the last 90 minutes, when everything just went down. The indexes hung around breakeven all day, but when Ben Bernanke explained how awful our economy will be for the next 2 years, traders bailed. Oh well, there goes out 4 day winning streak!

4 in a row

Published on June 21, 2011, 11:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Hey, looky there….4 up days in a row! I could get used to this. But, we should be so lucky to see a continuation of this. Of course, we did do 6 down in a row, so turnabout is fair play. :-)

Been sitting on my hands though missing this run up as I concentrate on other things around the office. Still like to keep track as I practice swing trading in my simulated accounts.

Big FOMC news conference on Wednesday will gather everyone’s attention. Let’s see how that acts out. Be careful out there.

Is this Monday again?

Published on June 20, 2011, 10:35 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Yes, another low volume Monday like we’ve had for the past 2 months. But, this one closed in the green! So that’s a change of character…for the bulls maybe?

A news driven week coming up with lots of Housing news, and FOMC meeting and press conference, GDP and Durable Goods reports all on tap. Should see a lot of spurts and drips all week long.

Let’s not forget all the Greece news also. I found this article explaining a lot of what is at stake with that little country: Did You Know Greece’s Economy is Smaller Than Michigan’s?

Five-peat

Published on June 7, 2011, 8:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

First there was a five week losing streak, now a five day losing streak….just doesn’t seem right…unless of course we’re in a bear market. The S&P sure looks like it has the 200MA in its sights.S&P Jun 7 2011
We haven’t had 5 down days in a very long time. Is 6 down days in the cards? What about 6 down weeks?

The close surprised me today. I didn’t think the Bernanke speech would have such a big affect. Who the hell scheduled a speech at 3:45PM?

What was that?

Published on April 27, 2011, 9:51 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

So I was listening in on the historic FOMC news conference and I thought I heard Ben say….So the better the economy the lower the dollar will go? Did he really say that? When the dollar is worthless we should be having a great economy? I almost yelled out sitting in the jury room…oops.

Here’s another crazy…SLV the silver ETF, traded more volume than the SPY….WTF? When’s that bubble going to burst? I guess if the dollar keeps going down, the commodities will keep going up!

Let’s see if DX catches a 72-handle overnight :evil:

Another same old…

Published on March 7, 2011, 10:10 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The usual didn’t work this week. The usual was to buy late Friday afternoon, which traders did do, for Merger Monday up moves, which it didn’t. But then, Monday ended just like Friday…same old shit different day! Markets came up well off their lows, even though they did sink again into the close.

It was a real chop chop again on Monday! We’re about 3% down from the S&P highs. I’m still waiting for another 7% at least. But…..

Now that Fed Officials Signal Little Need Now for Further Bond Purchases, we may get a chance to see what this market can do without the Fed finger manipulation. Although pundits on CNBC today were talking they were expecting QE3 and QE4! Amazing! 8O

Timberrrrr!

Published on March 1, 2011, 11:15 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

I think traders realized today that the markets need to go back and test the area they were in before this whole Mideast thing started brewing with Egypt….around 1294, which also happens to be last week’s low before the reversal on Thursday.

S&P Mar 1
What I would like to see tomorrow is a gap down to the line and then reverse back up. If we break through to the downside, I’ll give it one more chance at the 1280-5 area before I capitulate my longs and concede we have a change in trend.

According to The Arms Index: a TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market is in trouble. The TRIN close today was 2.66, well over 2.

The jobs bonanza starts tomorrow with the Challenger Lay Off report and the ADP Employment report, both as a warm-up to Fridays BLS report. Oil inventories report and the Beige Book also will inject some volatility on Wednesday. Futures are down this Tuesday evening, but not by much….still 10 hours before the US cash open.

In trading, somedays you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue!!

Dull Day

Published on January 26, 2011, 10:11 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

This had to be one of the dullest FOMC days in recent memory. Sure we blew past Dow 12000 but we didn’t hold it and closed below. The S&P tried to make it to 1300 but it couldn’t do it. The Russell is still hankering to hit 800. If we can’t get these milestones out of the way, maybe the correction will start.

I had some mad money today so I tried an earnings play with QCOM, buying a couple Mar 52.5 puts shortly before the close. Oh well… they had good earnings and an even better guidance. They do have a tendency to pullback after a good report. NFLX had a great report also, while SBUX got their caffeine pulled out of their stock.

Tomorrow we continue with “home” week with Pending Home Sales and also the weekly Jobless Claims. Friday holds GDP…which will bee a market mover. But then again, I thought FOMC would move the market today.

Check out what your state is “known” for at the The United States of Shame. 8)

Waiting

Published on January 25, 2011, 11:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

This morning I thought the markets were going to complete this long topping process and begin the rollover. And most of the day it was on its way. But, again, late in the afternoon the markets started that move up bringing them way off their lows. Most of the indexes closed near unchanged for the day.

Although the speech this evening was short on any meat but long on cheerleading, we’ll have to see how traders react. Overseas traders do not seem to be reacting yet. Maybe when Europe opens in several hours.

Maybe nothing until the FOMC rate decision comes out at 2:15PM EST. Oh well, let’s wait. 8O

Time for turkeys

Published on November 21, 2010, 10:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Another low-volume options expiration day…SPY volume was nearly 50% below average! There was no economic news nor important earnings reports so I guess traders just didn’t show up.

I’m sure volume will be down for the holidays. We only have 2 days with eco news. On Tuesday we get GDP Second Estimate, Existing Home Sales, and Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting. Wednesday’s economic reports include Personal Income and Spending, Durable Orders, Initial Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and New Home Sales.

Some crazy stuff going on in futures this evening!