Days like today are so much fun! Isn’t it wonderful what a little good news can do in an oversold market! Now can it last for another day or two and takes us into the holday all happy and giddy?
China PMI got the ball rolling yesterday, but strangely enough, the China market didn’t think it was that good. This evening China seems to be realizing it had a good report, or more appropriately, it’s just following what the US market did today.
More news tomorrow: Jobless CLaims, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, and let’s not forget, Ben Bernanke is speaking again. Watch volume as it may go down as traders wait for Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report.
The stock market is the biggest junkie in the world. The Fed says that we don’t need no stinkin’ quantitative easing, which should be good news, but the market quickly goes into DT’s and trembles all the way down. “But every junkie is like a setting sun.”
No QE means a strong economy, it means a recovery is in process! Oh, but it also means a strong dollar…and at the present the stock market does NOT like a strong dollar. So today, everytime the dollar shot up, the stock market, along with the oil market, moved down. And it seemed to happen about 20 times today!
Volume doubled yesterday’s totals and I think it should continue throughout the week, even though we are leading up to a holiday weekend. Too much news going on which will stir up the pot. Tonight I was waiting for China’s PMI, which has come out at 51.7, up from last months 51.2. And by morning we should have heard some GDP’s from European countries. We’ve also got ADP payroll report Wednesday morning, along with Construction Spending and oil inventories and more.
So much going on, Australia GDP up along with China PMI so futures are moving up strong also. Let’s hope it lasts until US markets open….and through the day tomorrow! 
It was just another Manic Monday, until the last hour, when indexes closed at their lows….on very low volume. It was a slow-motion crash.
We’ve got a load of economic news coming starting tomorrow: Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence and FOMC minutes. The question is, will good news or bad news make the markets move up? Or will nothing happen until Friday when the monthly employment numbers come out. Crazy market!
When everyone is bearish, that is the time to go long, a contrarian indicator. But what if all the contrarians are saying that there are too many bears out there and start writing stories about that? I found a couple stories today to read: Are Wall Street Analysts Contrary Indicators? Then followed that up with Sell Signal on 36% Profit Increase Has Analysts in Math Denial.
Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!
Ok, yesterday it was paint drying and today it was grass growing….slow and boring….until 2:15PM! Then all hell broke loose. There was a minute or two that I thought we would actually go for a green close, but no. Still, it was not a bad recovery off the lows.
We still have some consolidation, or better yet, bottom probing to do here. The big question: if we test a bottom will it hold? Seasonally, the second half of August is better than the first, or should I say more bullish. Also, August options expiration is generally a strong week. So we should have a good couple of weeks going into Labor Day.
Now for some wacky stuff: Here’s an OMG! Tony Robbins is now doing financial coaching! Check out his Business and Finance Blog where he has a “quick” word of caution for you. The “quick” word takes almost 22 minutes! OMG 
And in closing, here’s a funny:
“In Portland, Oregon, a 7-year-old girl’s lemonade stand was shut down by the police because she didn’t get a $120 business license. On the bright side, by closing her business, she’s now eligible for a $108,000 government bailout.” — Jay Leno
This had to be the lowest volume day this year, or maybe multi-years! It’s definitely the lowest volume I have ever seen in the ES emini….even for half-day trading….less then a million ES contracts traded!
Except for the low volume, today played out as thought, as the S&P twiddles with its June highs. The action tomorrow will be after 2PM and the Fed announcement. Traders are optimistic that the news will be good and the Fed may resume some of their stimulus measures.
Futures are down early this evening. While there are a few economic reports in the morning, there probably isn’t enough there to bring traders back from the Hamptons. Sure hope we don’t have to watch another coat of paint drying. 
There are a lot of nice sharts on individual stocks out there…more than I can keep track of. The Russell 2000 looks good also. The index is catching major support at the confluence of 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Perhaps it will make a run for the June highs.
It’s all about the FED this week and I’m looking for good news….good enough to make this market run a little bit.
No… more like bitch-slapped! Looks like banks got slapped by Bernanke and the entire market goes down. Bernanke said NOTHING new but the market reacted as if we’re just learning Europe is broke and there are many people unemployed! On the other hand, many senators probably had not known that.
Earnings reports on Wednesday morning were generally good. MS and WFC had good reports that really had the bank sector taking off. But that was some negative reaction to Big Ben speaking on the hill. The markets are still up for the week so all is not lost.
Are We As Worried as We Were Back in March 2009?
All said and done, this is one tough market to be trading. I didn’t buy a thing today and sold for some small profits and even smaller losses. Tomorrow, besides an even bigger day for earnings, we have Initial Claims. You would think that we could figure out how the market would react after a report, but, like today, who knows! Uncertainty as usual 
Our economy is so bad that the Fed is keeping rates at 0% for an extended period…still. So is this good news? Should the market rally on this? This was one of the most uneventful FOMC days that I can remember….no wild swings, no melt-ups or melt-downs, not even big volume. FOMC Press Release
You would also think that the bulls would have been a bit more pervasive after that big down day yesterday. Although we had an green day across all the indexes, I still have anticipation of more downside.
Did you hear Pres. Obama say: “At some point you’ve made enough money!” Any idea on what is “enough money?” Flaming Dumbass
And yes, HPQ bought PALM….but why? As Senator Levin would say, that’s shitty! HP-Palm: Everyone’s a loser but Apple
Here’s a simple and good explanation of the whole Greece mess, Some details on the Greek situation, from Morally Bankrupt. And another view: Germany may fund Greece for three years; the question is why?
There has got to be more fallout from these Greece-Portugal-Spain debt downgrades. The question is sooner or later?
This morning started with a strange sucking noise as the markets lured the bullish sheep into its trap before the bottom gives way and they all get the shaft. Isn’t that how tops are made? When everyone rushes in before they think the market takes off without them?
New 52-week highs blasted thru and passed Friday’s highs. But with so much power in that thrust, how come the markets didn’t do much at all? All the indexes were in the red except for the Dow…and that was only because of CAT. Advance/decline lines were negative as was the A/D volume. Strange brew! Or should we just say divergence big time!
And what a change of character this afternoon when the dollar broke down AND the markets followed suit. It’s been a long time since that has happened. Usually dollar down equals markets up and vice versa. Another divergence?
This is a pretty scary market and it just may be time for a downside move…a correction…or maybe something a bit more sinister? Oh, and one more thing…a Monday that was finally to the downside. Signs That Could Mark A Top
News will pickup for the rest of the week as Tuesday will bring Consumer Confidence and Home Price Index. The FOMC begins a meeting Tuesday and a rate decision will be announced on Wednesday. What do you think….maybe a rate increase in the works? At the least traders will be looking for a change in the language. Oh boy, the last week of April promises to be fun!
It was such a low volume day I think anyone buying more than 1000 shares of a stock actually moved the market! 
The ES didn’t hit 1 million contracts until after the cash close. Sure Europe was closed as was about half of the Asian markets, but still, I usually look for 2 million by 3PM EST. Trading was slower than a Christmas eve!
I digress. The indexes closed in the green but it was a very boring day. I covered half of my UNG calls for 62% and half of my DRYS calls for 23%. My VIX calls are about worthless, but I still have 9 trading days to see if they perk up. TZA is looking pretty crappy but I added a few shares near the close. In keeping with my bearish bent on the markets I also added QQQ puts and TWM calls. I’ll see how far that gets me this week. Oh, and VG which I bought about a month ago, finally turned green.
It’s reading stuff like the following that gets me shaking my head and wondering “why?”
Huge 25% hike for small businesses kills New York jobs.
Office vacancy rate hits 16-year high
Tomorrow we get FOMC minutes and find out how the Treasury’s 3-year note auction behaves. Today’s auction was pretty good, with the 10-year interest rate hopping above 4% briefly, but did not cause any consternation in the equities. Let’s see if the world returns to trading on Tuesday.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
