Sure there was good earnings reports this morning, but initial claims looked bad. European good news, on manufacturing and services index and retail sales, trumped US Initial Claims this morning and yesterday’s unusual uncertainty. And it sounds like European bank stress tests are coming in better than expected. I think the give-away on that is just what the euro has been doing today. We’ll see the conclusion on those tests tomorrow.
The S&P has made it well above the 50ma which should now act as support. A trip up to the 200ma seems plausible….at least the first attack.
Some high-powered reports for Friday: F HON IR MCD VZ, but no economic news…at least not from the US. Now Europe should be full of it…so to speak. 
Futures markets, along with Asia markets, are starting off in happy mode. We may just get back to the upper channel on my S&P charts at about 1106. Of course it’s early evening and we still have to have Europe open up, but so far if “feels” good!
Oil is moving up also and will help my UCO position. I’m looking hard at adding some other commodity ETFs this week: DYY DAG GRU DBA. A lot will depend on the US dollar and the euro of course.
And don’t forget it’s options expiration week. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Dow was down big in 2008 after being up 5 years in a row 2003-2007 for June expiration week.
Hang on, we’re in for another ride. 
Futures were way down Sunday night, but by the time I awoke on Monday morning all seemed to have corrected itself. Wrong! The morning started off decently, but soon the markets just started slicing me up…and they bled down all day. I was looking for a woosh down and a recovery. But no, it was torture. 
Tonight, futures are going up…almost up 1% in the early evening. Now to see what it can do tomorrow…Turnaround Tuesday?
Since it’s all been about the euro the past couple weeks, are you Ready for a Positive Euro Surprise?
Dow up almost 500 points off the lows and S&P is 60 points up, all in 5 days. Sure it’s been an up and down, zigzag road, but do you think we’ve seen the bottom of this correction?
The Advance/Decline volumes were big today, much bigger than yesterday’s down volume: Naz +8:1 NYSE +18:1 RUT +11:1 All US stocks +10:1 yeah baby! The TICK stayed above the -400 line most of the day, dipping down just occasionally. And futures this evening and Asian markets are acting nicely. Euro moving up and US$ moving down….C’mon Europe you can do it!
Lotsa news on Thursday….before the open we have ADP Employment Change, Productivity-Revision, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Claims and Continuing Claims. As if that wasn’t enough we get Factory Orders and ISM Services after the open. Will there be enough good news out of all that to have a confirmation day? The Dow and S&P haven’t strung 2 up days together since April!
OK bulls, you better pull this off tomorrow
World markets have brought up gold and oil, as well as equity futures. There’s still another day of trading before the US cash markets open, but, so far so good.
It looks like geo-political news will catch the spotlight before bailouts and euros do. Sure it’s all related, but you may want to keep an eye on commodities this week, especially gold and oil. A couple notes on what’s cooking out there on the war front: Deaths as Israeli forces storm Gaza aid ship, Koreas Ease Tensions With Small Gestures, China Balks at Criticism of North Korea, and Israel braces for Turkish, Hizballah, Hamas reprisals. Greece halts joint drill. We live in interesting times.
Coming this week on Friday, we have the monthly US Jobs report, which should show the much awaited pop created by census worker hiring. This should be psychologically motivating if we see over 300K jobs created. On the other hand we may also see a pop in layoffs in a couple of months as the government will not need all these census workers anymore. It’s like getting drunk….we have fun and feel good for a little while, but we’ll feel the hurt later. 
If all the euro-country lending/bailout stuff has got you confused, then this video, Lending merry-go-round, should straighten it all out for you. 
Hope everyone had a great long weekend. Thanks to the family and friends of our military might…past, present and future….without whose dedication and sacrifices we could not do all the things we take for granted. Thank you!
I had a fun and profitable morning of trading in equities and futures…and I should have quit with money in my pocket. But no! Encouraged by my success earlier in the day, I continued to trade futures. Expecting a nice rally into the close, I played it that way. The last half hour of the day wiped out my profits for the day and cut into my account….dammit!
Okay, the lesson learned? Trade what the market is doing, not what you think it will do. I know this, but it has happened before. How did I get sucked into this…again? Not paying attention, not taking the stop, convinced that I am right and the market is wrong. I let my rules slide right by me…idiot! Oh well, I made a mistake, I admit it and tomorrow is another day to start all over again.
Speaking of which…futures are in the midst of a crashette this evening…already down over 1%….and looking for a bottom. The US dollar looks like the culprit, up strong, or maybe the euro, getting weaker…it’s all about currencies. But there may be other distractions…like a lot of countries needing to issue bonds this week, oil dwindling down and gold spiking up. Like I just learned today, trade what the market presents to me.
I better go over my rules again. Here’s an interesting dichotomy:
Goldman Sachs Says Sell-Off Consistent With Past Corrections, Sees S&P 500 at 1,300.
Why Stocks Are Going Lower Long Term.
All we’ve done is postpone the problems:
Even though one of the worst scenarios — a Greek default — has been avoided for now, in many ways solving the bigger problems have simply been postponed and new issues could emerge in places such as Portugal and Spain,
said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Read the whole story, Germany Backs Euro Package as Markets Sober Up.
Do any of you use Twitter or StockTwits to keep up with trader sentiment during the day? This morning these 3 tweets popped up all at the same moment this morning, all looking at the same ES S&P e-mini futures:
midget : $ES_F another CRASH coming along be cautious
Scalper68 : so, anyone buying this gap $ES_F
desifinance : $ES_F futures are deceivingly negative this am. I think we are in for a ride. Push down early followed by buying.
That pretty much covers the gamut of thinking….from crash to a move up! By the way, desifinance had the right prediction. 
And also, don’t forget to follow me, WhatTheTrading, at Twitter or StockTwits.
Some interesting stuff for your web surfing pleasure:
The forthcoming golden age of stock picking
Biggs Says U.S. Stocks May Rise 20% as Crisis Eases
European Bailout Is No TARP Deux
The markets are climbing the wall of worry…and there’s plenty to worry about….there’s Europe and Asia and the U.S. economies for just the first hundred things. But look at those futures climb this evening! And why is that? Maybe it’s all about the euro
today? Here’s a blurb from the Wall Street Journal,
The European Union agreed an audacious €750 billion bailout plan in an effort to stanch a burgeoning sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece but now threatens the stability of financial markets world-wide.
The S&P futures already have a 16 point range and are up 30 handles from Friday’s close….and the markets have only been open 4 hours on a Sunday evening. This may be an interesting Monday.
Here’s some good reading on what really happened in Thursday’s 10-minute crash:
Feds trace flash crash to Chicago
Market Fragmentation May Get Review After Stock Drop
And more general stuff….
Sudden Selloff Rattles Small Investors’ Faith in the Market
EU to Set Up Fund to Prevent Spread of Greek Crisis
Well, like a I said yesterday, “…a nice gap down may do me good.” It sure did! And it continued down. A wonderful day for TZA…finally.
I’m looking for more downside movement, maybe after some breath-catching. Did you see the Euro today? Wow, what a collapse. Gonna try to get up real early, like 3AM to watch the European open. Should be quite a show. Goodhart Says Greek Deal May Collapse as Crisis Tests Euro.
Ok, going to bed.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
