Tag Archive for 'ES'

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Six-peat

Published on June 8, 2011, 9:04 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

On my! If we don’t recover 1280 tomorrow, the next major stop is 1250. I’ve been thinking we would bounce for the past 2 days and it hasn’t. On the other hand it really hasn’t gone down that much after Monday, although today’s down move had the greatest volume since the beginning of May.

The markets have been very news driven, or should I say rumor driven this week. There is no “real” news out this week, but a lot of rumors, Greece, inflation, defaults, debt ceilings…and on and on!

My bigest position is cash, cuz I can’t figure this market at all. I hope you’re playing it safe. Happy trading and be careful out there.

DX done?

Published on May 30, 2011, 9:17 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The US dollar was having a tough time while the US markets were closed….on the other hand the S&P futures sure are having fun. It’s Monday evening and ES is reaching a new high of the session. Sure we’ve got a lot of time before the cash open, but a trader can dream, can’t he?

Hope everyone had a fun long weekend…and thanked the servicemen and women in their families and circle of friends. All rested and time for a trade.

Don’t short a dull market

Published on May 26, 2011, 9:37 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Another perfect example of the old adage! A small gap down and then just hanging around breakeven for a couple of hours. But the indexes started a steady up move.

Around ES 1324 it was very tempting to short….and I did for a point….got out quickly, that was enough. The bulls would not be denied today. And volume was the highest this week! Not by much but still about 5% above the rest of the week. A/D volumes were above +3:1 and A/D issues were greater than +2:1….pretty nice.

Wonder if any traders are taking off early for the long weekend?

Rest in Peace

Published on May 25, 2011, 10:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Mark Haines dies at age 65. Prayers to him and his family. The world responded as when any icon passes away. I’ve watched him for may many years….about 15. It really is a personal loss for many viewers.

The markets started negative but were able recover to stop from having 4 negative days in a row. Looking a lot like a short term bounce here. Markets usually have a positive bent leading up to a patriotic holiday. Since this is the first summer holiday, I think volume should go downhill from here. ES traded 2.1 million contracts today.

We have GDP and Jobless Claims reports on Thrusday which may just set a tone for the market. Pending Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending on Friday….with really low volume. Futures are up, so far, this evening.

We have met the enemy, and they are us. –Pogo

Forever Young

Published on May 24, 2011, 9:19 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Well the market sure seems old, but I thought since it was Bob Dylan’s birthday I would play one of his remarkable songs….Forever Young. Yes he has an incredible repertoire, but this one always stuck with me.

So I listened to Dylan songs today because the market did nothing….on low volume…. ho hum. All the indexes closed on their lows…and continued after hours to move down.Futures this eveing are also moving down. ES should see 1300 overnight, maybe 1290. And if it does, I’m expecting buyers to step in for some bargains.

Me…I’m sitting in cash…mostly. I’ve still got some losers in banking and interest rates. Financials did seem to pick up in the afternoon, so this may be interesting.

No news today, no news tomorrow. Maybe it’s time to start the holiday weekend?

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that as gas prices hover near $4 a gallon, nearly eight in ten Americans say the high cost of fuel is causing financial hardship for their families. The other 20% own oil company stock. — DailyComedy.com

Were the markets open?

Published on April 25, 2011, 9:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

SPY volume was down -60% below average! ES contract were at 597K about 25% of the average day! So it’s easy to say that no trading went on today! I wasn’t around to trade today…so that works for me. Tomorrow may be a lean day for me also…but at least the Eurozone markets will be back after the Easter Monday holiday. Gee, should the U.S. markets take off on Monday instead of Good Friday?

President Obama’s 2010 tax return shows he made 1.7 million yet paid only $453,770 in taxes, thus allowing him to keep more than one million bucks in his own pocket. Economists say it’s the first budget surplus anyone has seen in the White House since the Clinton administration. — DailyComedy.com

Were the markets open today?

Published on March 28, 2011, 10:31 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

After the nice morning opening pop, it was downhill…in price and volume. What ugly volume for this Monday. SPY volume was 36% below its daily average and the ES futures contracts traded only 1.27 million contracts all day….I’m usually looking for that many by noon!

On the other hand, the bears had all the opporunity in the world to muster their ranks, but it was a no show. Sure we had a selloff into the close, sure we closed red after a green open, but still, what a lackluster showing for all traders.

Here’s a funny quote from Ben Bernanke made in February 2006:

“Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise.”

Oh sh!t

Published on March 10, 2011, 10:04 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The markets gapped down and continued down without looking back. Reasons were all from overseas…China, Europe, Middle East…maybe this recovery is not looking so hot. I was caught bug-eyed and flat-footed and pretty much sta and watched. Took a few scalps on the ES for breakeven. I usually don’t trade rollover.

I expect a bounce after this big of a down move. TRIN says as much also…. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. We closed at 2.13 today. But nothing is ever 100%.

Back on March 1st I talked about the S&P going back to test its pre-mideast crisis levels…1294. Well look where we went down to…..

S&P Mar 10
Now the big question…will we bounce from the test or go on though it?

Coming this week…

Published on February 27, 2011, 10:22 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

I went small into this end of month, mutual fund and merger Monday with a couple long-term longs and short-term shorts. Cash is a position….as I am unsure with what is happening at the marketplace. 8) Oscar

Lotsa employement news this week, with Challenger and ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims and Monster Index on Thursday and the BLS Employment report on Friday. Of course they’ll mix in some PMI, ISM, construction spending and the Beige Book to keep the week jumping.

Futures on Sunday evening are down but not by too much…ES down by 5 and YM down by 40…nothing drastic…yet. US dollar and oil not very active at all. I’ll wait for Europe to open. Guess I’ll check on Oscar.

Now what?

Published on February 22, 2011, 10:03 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

What Difference A Day Makes….all my SPY puts and SDS calls that expired worthless on Friday would have made some money today! Some remaining SDS calls along with TLT calls and IWM puts did come into the money today, so I grabbed it while I had a chance.

As I mentioned yesterday, volume and volatility were up big. ES contract volume was up 50%+ over Friday’s volume, SPY volume up 40% over the 6-month daily average, and the VIX was up 37%….those are some big moves. 8O

I don’t think we’ll follow-thru right away. I’m expecting a bounce on Wednesday on lower volume to get short again….I’m still short, but not much. It would be healthy for this market to have a deeper correction…say 10%. If the Libyan situation clears up any, we may see another run up!