Tag Archive for 'ES'

Markets give us ‘ugly’

Published on May 18, 2012, 5:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

FB didn’t do much on opening day….much less save the markets! While the morning was positive in anticipation of Facebook’s IPO, the Nasdaq kept delaying the first trade, making traders skittish. That just started the waterfall. Another IPO where the hype was over-hyped. C’mon, 100 times PE? Really now!

With the combination of Facebook and OpEx, volume was the highest it’s been in a while, but still not breaking 3 million contracts in the ES.  NQ and YM, along with ES, are approaching their 200-day moving averages…from above, while the TF actually did close below its 200DMA. Not looking so good.

I can’t remember the last time we had 5 consecutive down days in an Options Expiration week, can you?

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FB! It’s Time!

Published on May 17, 2012, 6:54 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

Put buying accelerated on Thursday as doom and gloom was overtaking all traders. And it really showed into the close. Nasdaq (NQ) got bitch-slapped taking the brunt of the beating…. ES touched 1300…and the YM had its worst day since January. The VIX hasn’t been this high since last year! Was that the capitulation low? If 1300 on the ES doesn’t hold…where’s the next stop? I’m betting on this as the low. Time for a rebound.

Friday is all about Facebook. Traders and the press have been talking and speculating for weeks. They’ve set the price at $38 a share and raised a cool $16 billion…that’s with a ‘B’. It should be a big enough distraction from Greece and the Euro to maybe give us at least one positive day this week! It’s been a while since I’ve seen an OpEx week this ugly….maybe the last time Greece was such a worry.

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Getting Greece’y Around Here

Published on May 15, 2012, 9:30 pm in Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

About a half hour before the cash open today, ES futures were ready to gap up about 8 points. By the close we were down 6 points. The good news? We closed up 3 points off the lows! So much for Turnaround Tuesday.

The morning and early afternoon showed some promise after a decent Retail Sales and CPI numbers…and a blowout Empire State Manufacturing Index and Homebuilder Sentiment. But worries about the Euro and Greece kept the markets subdued and dropping in the laye session. Oh well, Greece is the word!

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History tell us we’re wrong!

Published on May 14, 2012, 6:44 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Monday after Mother’s Day the Dow has been up 14 of last 17 years…. and the Monday of May expiration, which today is also, the Dow has been up 20 of last 24 years. So, history has shown us that we did wrong today! :-(

We moved lower on low volume. Maybe it was because Europe hasn’t responded to their issues, especially Greece. Gee, if you can’t form a government, how will you work through your fiscal crisis? So, do we have a Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow?

Today was one of those “as goes AAPL, so goes the markets” kind of days.

Remember, it’s options expiration week, so the ride is always a rollercoaster week. There;s some market moving reports this week as well: CPI, Rtail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Survey and the latest FOMC minutes. So buckle your belts and hold on!

And remember…. In trading, some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue!! :D

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Monday Blues

Published on April 23, 2012, 5:46 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Traders got bitch-slapped Monday morning as no-news was bad-news. Well we did confirm a recession in Spain, so traders bailed out of the market. The German DAX led the way this morning, but after the European close, U.S. markets recovered somewhat. The S&P (ES futures contract) closed down -12.25.

We have an FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday. But it won’t be until Wednesday that we hear what they are thinking. There’s New Home Sales on Tuesday. Besides the FOMC announcement on Wednesday there is also Durable Goods Report. And on Friday we hear about GDP.

Remember…As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. Be careful out there.

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My oh my!

Published on March 22, 2012, 8:19 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The volume continues to decline and so does the VIX as we mentioned before. . . .as do many others in the blogosphere. Here’s a thought: What the Heck is Happeneing with the VIV and VXX?

Yesterday, the S&P, or actually the ES futures contract) hung just above and below breakeven, having low volume spurts in either direction. And again, I’m just scalping for lunch money, with no committment to either direction. Here’s some stories you may enjoy. . . and learn.

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Must be OpEx

Published on March 13, 2012, 4:22 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Yes it is…keeps coming back like a bad penny! ;)

And what makes this one interesting, as if they aren’t all interesting? Well first is today’s FOMC meeting and then Thursday we have the release of the stress tests on the banks.

Monday was a blank day with the S&P at no change, a doji. But all the bulls let out their frustrations on Tuesday after a fairly upbeat FOMC report and a generally good mood on Wall Street with JPM saying they will increase their dividend. WTF? Wasn’t the law laid down that no bank could announce anything until after the numbers are released on Thursday? Again….WTF!

The Fed lies, Wall Street lies, everybody lies! How is the little guy supposed to trade this market? Oh, that’s right, we’re not!

Long time no see

Published on February 28, 2012, 9:28 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Nothing can keep a slow market down, but as the markets have been slow on low volume, I’ve kept my trading low and slow also. 8)

I’ve added NQ into my mix of instruments, joining ES and TF. So far though, not very successfully….make some money in ES and lose it in NQ. Oh well.

My mind has been preoccupied reworking my business website, no, not this one. Go ahead, take a look at http://ValueManagementPartners.com. The previous site was up for 10 years. Links were breaking and advancing technology was wasting the old site away. So here it is. Leave a comment or use the cantact form. Let me know what you think….I’d appreciate it.

The lessson learned: you can’t rest on your laurels, in business, in life, or in trading. You have to keep up with technology, processes, lingo and the competition. Other traders are learning new indicators, finding new patterns, and working with new assets. Keep up or be left in the dust. They just may take your money!

It’s time for a rollover!

Published on December 7, 2011, 8:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Yes, it’s time again to rollover those futures contracts. The Equity Indices: TF, ES, NQ, EMD and YM roll on Thursday at the open from the December 2011 contract to the March 2012 contract. The month code for March is ‘H’. So tomorrow and Friday will be a little rocky as traders move their positions. You can trade the ‘Z’ contracts through next Thursday, but by the end of the day tomorrow, the volume will move to the ‘H’ contract.

Today was a crappy day until the end when indexes moved up to their high of day. Seems like the bulls want to be Santa Claus!

MF’ers

Published on November 16, 2011, 6:51 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Yes, I mean those ‘motherly’ cuss words…but I’m actually talking about Moodys and Fitch, get it? Heehee!

Moody’s downgraded some German banks, so Fitch downgrades US banks with dealings in Europe. Is this really news? Didn’t everybody already know that? And why announce that in the middle of an options expiration week? WTF? News, made up or real, always trumps charts and indicators.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac says, “Week before Thanksgiving, Dow up 15 of last 18.” Let’s see what Thursday and Friday bring us.

I was trading ES today. It just doesn’t feel good when a retracement doesn’t come back to your buy point…missing by one tick and then takes off without you…mope, mope, mope. On the other hand it doesn’t feel as bad as when you chase it up and it goes against you. Patience is a virtue! Trade your plan and stick to it!