This market could not make up it’s mind on what direction to go. Maybe it was just waiting for the earnings reports this evening. There must have been a lot of people waiting because nobody was trading….volume pathetic again. Options Expiration week….hours of boredom….with minutes of panic and/or excitment thrown in!
Earnings season looks like it may be just what the bulls were waiting for. AA CSX and NVLS all came in with better-than-expected results and the S&P futures were taking off before they closed at 4:15 PM EDT. And later on this evening, it looks as if they would like to continue their move up. Of course there is still 11 hours before Tuesday’s open.
Speaking of AA, it’s been going down ever since the last earnings report 3 months ago.
So does it go up for 3 months now?
It would be nice if the markets tomorrow just continue up in a nice-n-easy manner, slow but steady. What I would not like to see is a gap-n-crap in a wild opex kind of way….but, then again, it is opex week. 
Lots of trading today….all in S&P (ES) and Russell (TF) emini futures. What a fantastic day! And my oil play via UCO, although still under water, can actually see the surface of the water. 
Okay, now what? We need to see some confirmation, but after a big move like today maybe a breather is in order. Some sideways meandering would not be a bad thing, nor would a small pullback.
My biggest problem, still, is DRYS, it’s been sinking for weeks, along with the BDI. The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for the 30th consecutive session. It is the longest decline in six years. During this swoon, the index has fallen 50% from May 26th.
Here’s some bullish thoughts:
Why Jeff Rubin still sees triple-digit oil prices by 2011
Altucher says S&P ready for 1500
It looked like we could have closed in the green just 5 minutes before the cash close. But bam! The bears gave the bulls a big F U and the ES quickly dove 10 points in as many minutes…and kept going for another 10 minutes into the futures close.
“Death Cross” is upon us…. Y’know when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. They are at the same place right now, but one more down day will send us well below. The last time this bear signal happened was Dec. 2007…. and you do remember what happened the next 15 months, don’t you? You get the picture. But y’know, everybody is talking about it…even the TV talking heads….too much. Since everyone is talking and expecting it, maybe it won’t happen this time….or will it?
The Nasdaq has 10 down days in a row. I think this may be a first. It had 9 straight red days back in 1994. Since we broke the record it may be time for an up day.
Overall it was a very odd day – stocks down, VIX down, bonds down, dollar down, oil down – just about every asset class. So there is a lot of figuring out to do. We do have a good thing about to happen…..Congress is going on break….and when they are not in session, the markets go up. So I’m thinking next week is an up week.
And if not, at least it will be a short week. Have a wonderful weekend.
Initial Claims higher, that sucks! The morning was entirely Bizzaro world, when all asset classes went down: dollar, oil, stocks, gold all down! Wasn’t that like an apocalypse? I was ready to capitulate, but I had a meeting to get to.
It was a day that made me money….through no fault of my own. I had put in some ES buy stops at 1013 before going to a luncheon meeting. As it turns out, I was filled and when I got back, ES was at 1023. I sold immediately when I saw that!! Thank you market.
Well, I’m not sure it was a key reversal, but the bulls shouldn’t be too discouraged. The market performed well off of a bottom. Advance/Decline volumes were -16:1 early in the morning but ended the day close to 1:1. Tomorrow is the start of a long weekend and we may see some patriotic buying.
It was surprising that the market was able to recover as much as it did with all the bad news this week. Today’s Initial Claims pretty much told us that Friday’s NFP report will be ugly. Home sales confirmed what we all knew. And the gold bugs got blasted bad! One more thing, AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish sentiment has now stayed above its historical average for 8 straight weeks. How can any market go up after all that?
We may not go up much, but we are oversold and it is the beginning of a new quarter and a national holiday. A bounce is in order.
Well, I said it would hurt! All my stock longs were crushed. The only redeeming action I took was hedge scalping with the ES. They were counter-trend plays scalping 3 to 5 ticks at a time. But all I came up with was a breakeven for the day. Success!
QQQQ now down 8 straight days. Only 3 times in QQQQ history has it been down 8 in a row, so we should see some relief. Circuits were tested — Circuit Breaker Kicks in, Stopping Trades of Citigroup and other financials weren’t any better: Financials take hit.
So the rest of the week will tell us if we have bottomed or just entering a new bear. It will come down to jobs, jobs, jobs. And remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .
In my 10+ years of trading, it has never been tougher than trading this week. Both banks and oil led us down. Banks kept us down while oil looks like it’s trying to recover. The only thing I traded today was ES, the S&P emini. Looking over the trades, not one was more than 5 minutes and several were under 120 seconds in duration! Oh my! Sure it was a down day, but all my trades were long.
Check this out….you would think we would go a lot lower with a VIX of 349!!
Sure it’s a bad tick, but I thought I’d grab a picture of it just to remember. 
The TRIN again closed high at 2.99. Remember what I said a couple days ago when the TRIN closed at 3.82…The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble…..and we got NO bounce…and yes we’re in trouble.
So we’re down 4 days in a row. A 3 or 4% correction is no big whoop, but that is assuming tomorrow the markets get back on track and show some bullishness. If not, the bear is back and we may be on our way to some new lows.
Can’t wait until World Cup Soccer is over .. we need all the volume we can get back into the markets! I was waiting for the Fed rate decision because I wanted to play that knee-jerk rollercoaster in the few minutes after. But no! It’s like my screen froze…nothing happened. It took ten minutes before any significant move was made. And it sure wasn’t violent or crazy.
I was most disappointed that oil took such a dive…it was oil that led us up the past couple weeks and I don’t want it to lead us down. It did try to recover during the day, but went back down near the day’s end.
I’m afraid the entire day on Thursday will be framed by the jobless initial claims number. This time I hope the government dresses it up to show the number coming down. 
There’s a lot of news brewing outside of economic reports that will affect the markets in the coming days. Check these out:
Oil, currencies, banks and presidents…gee, do you think any of those matter to this market?
Fading the opening gap seems to be the thing to do the past two days! The S&P eminis were a total chopfest during the morning. But then the bears took the reigns and bye-bye market. Volume was a bit heavier today than yesterday, but it wasn’t a panic. Yes we had a confirmation of yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern, we lost the 200-day moving average, and we cussed up a storm all afternoon…What the $%@&*!
Many indicators have quickly gone from overbought to oversold. The TRIN closed at 3.82. The Arms Index says: TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. So I guess we have to wait until tomorrow to see how it goes.
Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .
Now that June options and future contracts have all rolled over, time to move on.
Volume was very low for an options expiration Friday. That USA vs Slovenia soccer match really took a lot of traders out of the mix! 
Actually, the entire week was a low volume boring time for an opex week. 
This week should be a bit more news driven than last. A Fed rates decision is due on Wednesday. During the week we’ll see New Home sales, Durable goods orders, GDP and consumer sentiment…plus a rash of treasury bill auctions.
Futures are taking off Sunday evening!! Dow e-mini (YM) is already up +140, the S&P e-mini (ES) is up +17…if this holds up overnight we will get a big bang at the open! Oil is up almost 2 dollars and other commodities are following suit. Get ready for a rip roarin’ Monday!
I had a fun and profitable morning of trading in equities and futures…and I should have quit with money in my pocket. But no! Encouraged by my success earlier in the day, I continued to trade futures. Expecting a nice rally into the close, I played it that way. The last half hour of the day wiped out my profits for the day and cut into my account….dammit!
Okay, the lesson learned? Trade what the market is doing, not what you think it will do. I know this, but it has happened before. How did I get sucked into this…again? Not paying attention, not taking the stop, convinced that I am right and the market is wrong. I let my rules slide right by me…idiot! Oh well, I made a mistake, I admit it and tomorrow is another day to start all over again.
Speaking of which…futures are in the midst of a crashette this evening…already down over 1%….and looking for a bottom. The US dollar looks like the culprit, up strong, or maybe the euro, getting weaker…it’s all about currencies. But there may be other distractions…like a lot of countries needing to issue bonds this week, oil dwindling down and gold spiking up. Like I just learned today, trade what the market presents to me. 
I better go over my rules again. Here’s an interesting dichotomy:
Goldman Sachs Says Sell-Off Consistent With Past Corrections, Sees S&P 500 at 1,300.
Why Stocks Are Going Lower Long Term.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
