Tag Archive for 'DRYS'

Wow!

Published on November 4, 2010, 9:31 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

What a great day for trading….and a solid day for all the indexes. I really wasn’t expecting it. The norm is for the markets to do the opposite of what they do on FOMC day. Since they were up yesterday, I thought we would go down today. But no. The rest of the world was up so the US put the exclamation mark on Thursday’s market!

Although the Jobs Claims report wasn’t that great, the market quickly brushed it off. New 52-week highs exploded on decent volume.

I grabbed profits from XLF, C, and UNG, and still holding positions in TBT, C, UNG, and DRYS. I also started positions in QID and ZSL.

Looking for Non-Farm Payroll report to be…..well, it doesn’t really matter. If it’s strong, that might put a damper on QE2, If it’s weak, then the market may be weak. So I’m looking for a bit of downside no matter what the report says.

Then after the morning report, also look out for Pending Home Sales at 10AM and Consumer Credit at 3PM. The market has been growing each day with more excitement. So let’s see if it goes out with a bang!

Hump Day

Published on October 13, 2010, 9:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

The sun rose this morning … INTC did what it always does…drop after earnings. AAPL held on to 300 barely, and I added to my short positions via SDS QID and VXX … so it was a slow day. I also took profits on C calls and DRYS calls I’ve been holding for months.

So why did the markets go up today? INTC had a good report…but INTC didn’t go up. JPM had a good report…but JPM did not go up. I guess it must be AAPL…as goes AAPL so goes the market? I did see a report today that AAPL’s weighting is two-thirds of the QQQQ. The markets were cut in half from the highs today…so does that mean something? I’m not sure, but I am now net short and will continue to take profits in the longs that I have remaining…if they show themselves.

Now that AAPL hit 300 I guess all the people on CNBC will be pumping $400 for a while. Of course it looks like it went down to $298 after hours. Speaking of which, the US Dollar continues to tank and Index futures are moving up this evening. Gold continues its trek to $1400 and the grains are moving up also.

I’m starting to feel queasy about this market….irrational exhuberence comes to mind. If all these companies are doing so well, why is the economy still in the gutter? There’s a correction coming, I just don’t know if it’s sooner or later.

Inflation is good

Published on September 28, 2010, 8:35 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , .

The economic reports this morning were not good, and thus the market rallies! A bad economy guarantees that the Fed will be performing some quantitative easing pretty quick…which ewventually gets us into inflation. More money at low interest makes its way into the market…making the market go up. But, Why is deflation bad?

Today I traded more transactions than I ever had in one day, clearing out a lot of positions that I had strung along for quite a while. DRYS QTWW FCEL NSM AMKR and a few I got just yesterday and today XRT IWM. Now I traded IWM puts all day long today (6 times) with 66% being profitable winners. :mrgreen:

Overnight I’m holding UCO TBT C and puts in both IWM and GLD….small positions in all except for C, got lots of C in stock and calls, picking it up here and there on dips for the last 5 months. One day I’ll cash out.

Tomorrow is a no news day except for oil inventories at 10:30AM EST….thus the UCO purchase today. Besides that we’ll be looking to Asia and Europe to set the tone for Wednesday. Keep in mind that the cloud over Europe has reappeared, especially in Ireland and Portugal, so watch out for that. Otherwise, happy trading, but be careful out there :!:

Chop continues

Published on July 28, 2010, 10:12 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

The blades have to be getting dull on this chopper. All the indexes ended in the red, off anywhere from a quarter percent to one and a half percent. Volume was extremely low and Advance/decline volumes were barely down two to one.

But which way do we go now? I’m positioned on the long side, so I want the market to go long. Unfortunately, the market never does what I want it to do. So, play the charts. But I can’t tell from the charts. The only play I have is to tighten stops and maybe hedge a bit with TZA BGZ or maybe just S&P futures.

I’ll be listening in on the DRYS conference call on Thursday morning. Earnings came out after the close today and looked good. Now we need some good news…like an IPO or a sale. 8)

Thursday brings us the largest single day of earnings reports of the season. And let’s not forget our weekly headache of Initial Unemployment Claims. Something’s got to move in a confident direction, either up or down….soon, I hope. Good luck tomorrow!

Smokin’

Published on July 7, 2010, 10:58 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Lots of trading today….all in S&P (ES) and Russell (TF) emini futures. What a fantastic day! And my oil play via UCO, although still under water, can actually see the surface of the water. :lol:

Okay, now what? We need to see some confirmation, but after a big move like today maybe a breather is in order. Some sideways meandering would not be a bad thing, nor would a small pullback.

My biggest problem, still, is DRYS, it’s been sinking for weeks, along with the BDI. The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for the 30th consecutive session. It is the longest decline in six years. During this swoon, the index has fallen 50% from May 26th.

Here’s some bullish thoughts:
Why Jeff Rubin still sees triple-digit oil prices by 2011

Altucher says S&P ready for 1500

I hate when that happens

Published on June 1, 2010, 11:13 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The Dow has had only 5 up days since May 4th. This is 3rd-worst post-Memorial Day in S&P history. After last 7 times the S&P lost more than 1% on a post-Memorial Day, the S&P was up 6 of 7 times the next two days.

Looks like the double-dip recession is a self-fulfilling prophecy. We’ve had good and bad news reported for a couple of weeks, but it looks like traders only hear the bad. Lots of reports coming out the rest of the week, with the biggie on Friday. We’ll have to see the reaction.

DRYS looks like it may have run aground. The China PMI report hurt DRYS, but since I already played this a couple of weeks ago, and I still hold some long-term calls, I thought I’d pick up some more of the stock at these low prices. I’ll give it about a 15 cent leash which would stop it out a few pennies below the May lows. This article gives me some hope: DryShips – A Contrarian Stock That Could Offer Lucrative Returns As Global Economy Recovers

Here’s to a good trading day on Wednesday!

Bull!

Published on May 27, 2010, 9:39 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

This was a different kind of day….the markets continued in the direction they opened….and in a very strong fashion. Advance/Decline volumes were huge: NYSE A/D volume closed at +34:1. That’s a decisively positive day! It’s not often you see a panic buying spree. Now, do we get some follow-through on Friday?

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Friday before Memorial Day tends to be lackluster with light trading. But, over 60% are bullish! Maybe we do get a follow-through.

My long positions were looking a lot better today than earlier this week. C UWM and ABK are all green. UCO which was way underwater is now getting close to the surface and may get green in a day or two. My DRYS calls still have a way to go, but I have until January for them to recover. :(

Going through my scans this evening, there are way more stocks than I can keep track of during the day. So I may fine tune and keep scanning to pick the cream of the crop.

Tomorrow, I’m hoping, I can actually get out of some of my positions. I’d like to lighten up for the weekend. Besides, I need to buy a lot of ribs and beer! We’ll see how that goes. Have a great Friday if you’re trading….and if you’re not, have a wonderful weekend.

Got Gold?

Published on May 12, 2010, 9:35 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Wow, gold is on a rocket….but eventually the rocket fuel runs out. Have you noticed all the gold commercials on TV? On the business channels like CNBC, FBN and Bloomberg, they are trying to sell us coins and bullion. On “regular” channels they want to buy all our chains, bracelets, rings and teeth. So…do you think we’re in the middle of a gold bubble?

Y’know, the SEC could announce a circuit breaker rule soon, but why not instead reinstate the uptick rule and stop the naked shorts from manipulating the markets? But nooo, that would upset all the big boys on the playground…

DRYS and CSCO reported after hours. Neither had blowout reports and both are trading below today’s close, but not in the red…yet. CSCO could weigh on the QQQQ and Nasdaq and all the techs. Tech and banks have been leading the past couple days, so I’d like to see that continue.

We’re going to have to test the 200ma or at least get close to a recent low before we go to much higher, so I’m keeping a close watch on the inverse ETFs like: TZA BGZ TYP FAZ SDS. Play these on a short term and/or to protect some of your long positions.

Futures mildly unexciting this evening, hanging around where they closed, plus or minus a point or two. Initial claims on Thursday better continue to the upside. The slightest news, good or bad, could move this market in either direction. 8)

Friendly Skies

Published on May 3, 2010, 10:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

The merger of UAUA and CAL really set the market into a takeoff. There was more good news as Greece had its umpteenth bailout and there was more construction spending than anticipated. And let’s not forget…we had this great up move on low volume.

On the other hand, this makes the Dow up 10 of the last twelve first trading days in May. And I can’t remember how many up Mondays….like 30 out of the last 38, or something like that. The only thing we need now is a wild Turnaround Tuesday. :roll:

My long positions doing well: DRYS and GTF….at breakeven: RNN…and not doing so well: ZANE. I also picked up some TZA at the close. Gee, a nice gap down may do me good.

Here’s a real good explanation of “It’s different this time…”
Thoughts On The Intermediate Trend by Matthew Claassen

While we desire never to be caught with those words leaving our lips, in truth every market cycle has something different than the previous. Equally important, each market cycle shares similarities to one or more past bull or bear markets.

And check out this Greece info: Why Greece Will Default.

I don’t think the Greeks can make it and for one good reason: the economy.

Look, No Wires!

Published on April 6, 2010, 10:44 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The market is levitating on a stage, but I can’t see the wires that are lifting it. And this is a dinner cabaret, so isn’t it fun to go to dinner when someone else is buying? Isn’t that what the FOMC is doing? Free money! Free drinks! Suck it up suckers!

I’ve come to the conclusion that the market is simply never ever going to go down for more than one day (or a few hours) in a row.

Okay, enough of that BS.

So I’m still wondering what is driving the indexes up. It doesn’t matter because all you can do is react to what the market is doing…..not what you want or wish it to do. 8O

I sold the rest of the DRYS calls for 40% and UNG calls for 81%. It would have been nice if I had loaded up, but it just doesn’t happen that way. I’m happy with those calls, but still dragging along some losers….TZA TWM just waiting for the highly anticipated correction….maybe.

Although it’s a light news week, tomorrow we have Mortgage Apps, Consumer Credit and another Treasury auction….oh yeah, and Bernanke has a speech. Let’s see if tomorrow does anything different.