Tag Archive for 'Dow'

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Unexpected?

Published on August 8, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

I thought the bounce would start sometime by the close, but you can’t always get what you want! And the selling in the ES futures continued into the evening. ES has sunk below 1100 last time I looked.

I did nibble on some TBT calls at a time I thought they may have bottomed, but, no such luck. I’m still sitting in them, underwater. So you can say I had a bad day.

It was an incredible day….The VIX advanced 50%, and although I was looking to short the VIX, I sat on my hands. SPY down 7.5%, yes in one day. The Russell was down almost 9% and the “winner” today was the Dow, down “only” 5.5%.

Some sector ETFs really got bruised: FAS the 3X financial bull ETF was down 30%, so the financial XLF was down over 10%. But Bank of America, BAC was down 22%…ouch! Oil and technology weren’t pretty at all.

So is it time for Turnaround Tuesday? China has some announcements overnight and those European PIIGS are still a pain in the ass. And let’s not forget, it’s time for FOMC meeting and announcement. Gee, what are the chances of a rate hike on Tuesday? :roll:

This should be interesting…

Published on August 7, 2011, 8:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

After a 400 point range in the Dow, it ended up only 60 points. All the other indexes closed in the red. WTF?

Friday looked like massive margin calls and forced liquidations after the big run down on Thursday. Rumors began to circulate during the day that S&P was going to do what it finally did after hours…downgrade US debt. If the S&P knocked down the US debt, don’t they also knock down the holders of that debt?

Here’s the remaining countries with a triple A rating: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. How far can they go with having “superior” debt? Buffett Says Cutting U.S. Rating Was Mistake, Sees No Recession.

The first reaction I had (as if anyone cared) is pass off all the US “peace-keeping” duties to these countries and let them take care of “us.” And quit “loaning” money to other countries. And quit giving money to people that haven’t put any money into the pot (read as welfare) …freeloaders! Sorry, I digress.

Here’s the S&P Ratings Report http://stk.ly/nzkwsU. Interesting reading.

Ok, back to trading. I’m definitely going to tread lightly. Futures this evening gapped down big…ES down 35 points, Dow down 325 pts. They have recovered about a third since the 6PM open. I’ve put bonds and the VIX on my short list via TBT calls and VIX puts. The metals may be a good short also via DZZ and ZSL, but I’ll put them in second place because I’ve been burned by them before.

Although only the Globex is open, Asia markets should open soon…and so far, it’s a pretty tame open for the past 2 hours. Maybe this was all baked in the previous two weeks?

Good luck on Monday and thanks for reading.

P.S. Just remember, if the Dow falls more than 30 percent (3600 pts), the market will close! Don’t think we get there, but keep it in mind?

It’s the economy stupid!

Published on August 2, 2011, 6:56 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

We had the biggest down day this year, although the volume was not that big. I would have rather seen a big woosh down and have buyers come in instead of this slow, grinding death…on every little pop, a barrage of bears come in and sell, sell, sell! It was one of the ugliest days I’ve seen…add in 7 down days in a row…8 for the Dow…the markets are very, very oversold.

For as crazy as the market has been the past week, the VIX has been fairly tame.You would think the VIX would have shown some additional upside movement. S&P is now negative for the year. I don’t expect it to stay there, but still a significant accomplishment…for the bears.

The Arms Index, also known as TRIN says: A TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market is in trouble! The TRIN closed at 4.64 on Tuesday!

Wow…staggering…S&P down almost 100 points…the Dow down 900 points…all in a few days! Screw the debt-ceiling, it’s the economy stupid!

Up, down and back to even

Published on August 1, 2011, 10:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

The gap up was expected of course, but the reversal after only 15 minutes was a surprise. I unloaded half my long positions at, as it turns out, the high of the day. My thought was to hang on for a continued up move after a pullback. But, the pullback never stopped!

The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq broke through Friday’s low to notch new lows. But, the Russell did not make a new low…although it did close below its 200MA. The Dow tested its 200MA but bounced back up. The S&P broke through its 200 but managed to recover and close above…. A wide range day on all indexes. You would think with all that volatility the VIX would have gone up. Instead the VIX moved down. With the VIX down and the RUT not making new lows, there is some hope for the bulls.

The House passed the latest version of the debt-ceiling crisis bill. Now onto the Senate. It traders hated the announcement of a deal, just what will they do once it’s approved? Well, futures are near the low of the overnight session as I’m writing. Oh my!

A little bit of economic reports every day this week, but Friday brings the monthly aggravation of the employment situation…which can’t be too good. And of course, the never-ending debt-crisis will continue to wreak havoc. Can’t wait til it’s over so we can go back and worry about Europe! ;-)

Goldfinger!

Published on July 18, 2011, 11:19 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Gold finally makes it over $1600 mark…now to see if it continues up from here. The markets went in the other direction with gusto. The NYSE Advance/Decline volume was over -10:1 for the bears. The S&P and the Dow, did recover half of its morning losses by the end of the day. The Nasdaq looked strong in the afternoon…maybe in anticipation of IBM earnings…but there was no stopping AAPL! Wow if really took off.

Still a very crazy market…up and down. Remember,

Better to be in cash wishing you were in the market than to be in the market wishing you were in cash!

Be careful out there.

Boy oh boy

Published on May 31, 2011, 9:12 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

What a wonderful start to the summer! It is a seasonally strong time. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Today, the day after Memorial Day, Dow has been up 8 of last 11…so the win streak continues. Tomorrow, first trading day of June, Dow up 10 of last 12. Let’s see if that continues also!

Sold out of QQQ this afternoon, but decided to hold on to SPY. Although I’ve got some winners, TBT is still a loser for me. Looks like low interest rates might be a catalyst for the next bull run.

And what’s going on with oil? You would think with the economy taking a double-dip that oil demand would decrease…but no! Still working its way up.

“Al Qaeda has been plotting attacks against oil tankers and refineries for years. Thank goodness that never happened. The price of gas would have skyrocketed.” — Jay Leno

3..2..1..

Published on April 4, 2011, 8:38 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Is it time for takeoff? News, good or bad, the markets go up. Bullish sentiment is running high. Energy and food prices are moving up. Runaway inflation is pending….so….buy, buy, buy?

I am net long, with a few short hedges, but still not confident enough to go all-in…..50% cash, 35% long and 15% short.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, 3rd best for the S&P and 4th best for the Nasdaq. That’s a lot of ammo for the bulls.

I would like to see a pullback before launching just to get out of shorts and load up on a few more longs. But, as we know, the market rarely does what you want it to do. Good luck and happy trading!

“It’s not being wrong that kills you, it’s staying wrong that kills you.”

Oh My!

Published on February 8, 2011, 9:11 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Credit card debt grew in December for first time since 2008. But why? Are people really spending to buy more stuff…or are they using credit cards to pay monthly bills?

VXX continues to make new lows since inception…indexes are making new highs. Does “irrational exhuberance” come to mind? Are we really that much better than before the recession/depression started? If so, why are so many people looking for work? And why is gas and food costing more?

SPY volume was 43% below the average daily volume…S&P e-mini futures volume was low also. The markets are going higher and higher each day on lower and lower volume. WTF?

So I shorted the Dow via DIA puts…just so I can play. Besides using some of my mad money, I’m staying out.

The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith

DJIA makes new highs

Published on February 3, 2011, 10:19 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

But the others struggled to hit their highs. Markets took off downward in the morning, reaching its bottom after one hour, reversing and slowly moving up the rest of the day. Deja Vu?

A crazy market that is grinding up both bulls and bears, and then spitting them out. Cash seems the most profitable position to be in….unless you’re scalping. Don’t get so addicted that you “have” to trade. :idea:   Cash is a position.

Same old

Published on January 27, 2011, 10:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The Dow can’t close over 12000 and the S&P can’t close over 1300…but they’re trying! Tomorrow’s GDP number will make or break that process.

Gold took a dumper today along with the US dollar. IOndexes tried to take off but hung around the unchanged area most of the day, although they all did close in the green. They will pull back eventually, so I’ll just sit and watch.

“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
– Jesse Livermore