Tag Archive for 'crash'

Just waiting

Published on December 28, 2010, 8:14 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Well another mixed up day. Yes the markets are inching up, but volume very low. You can’t trust the technical indicators because of the lack of volume and momentum. All the indexes are just hanging around waiting for the year to end.

And you can’t tell anything from the advance/decline lines or new highs or new lows. The entire market is going nowhere fast, and since my technical indicators are based on the underlying market, they may not be saying anything of any value. Oh well!

Looking over my small positions I’m carrying, I am short the market…nothing leveraged or over-indulgent…but still getting ready for the crash….well a correction anyway.

This next year, both Groundhog Day and the State of the Union address occur on the same day. “It is an ironic juxtaposition of events; one involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to a creature of little intelligence for prognostication while the other involves a groundhog.”

No news is bad news!

Published on August 23, 2010, 10:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Wow, what an an illiquid violent market today, with big bid/ask spreads. The first 30 minutes had me feeling real good about today’s market, but it quickly dwindled away. The markets closed near their lows….looking like a setup for a another drop tomorrow. The only hope is that it finds a bottom and starts a climb….turnaround Tuesday? Wobbly Wednesday? Thoroughly-ugly Thursday? F’ked-up Friday?

Tuesday we have Existing Home Sales and Wednesday is New Home Sales. Thursday brings us the usual Jobless Claims and the biggie of the week is on Friday, GDP with a smattering of Consumer Sentiment.

Now here’s a hypothesis…..traders think that home sales, unemployment and GDP are going to suck, so they started the sell off today. So if any of those reports come in just a little bit better than expected, we just may have a bottom and a take-off to the upside. Well….it is possible. 8)

And remember…

Hoping or Wishing or Praying = exit position immediately!

Bad News Bears

Published on June 30, 2010, 10:19 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Bad news for sure! I think we have fallen enough from the highs to be in an official bear market now. :-(

The SPY, along with the S&P, confirmed a head ‘n shoulders pattern by breaking through the neckline.

Oh my!

Check out some of these other shenanigans: TSLA after being up $8 for the day, closes in the red; DNDN after closing about 4% in the red ($32.22) continued to dive after hours, trading at about $25; Oil is running down and BP is running up…What the $%@&*!

This evening, China PMI came in below expectations, so futures are in the toilet, at least for now. The bear is back! When a market opens higher and closes near or at the lows…THAT is classic bear market price action. :!:

Our one salvation is to see what the European reports come in like. I think I’ll go and by some firecrackers for the weekend. :twisted:

More Flash Crash…

Published on May 29, 2010, 8:51 am in Opinions. Closed Tags: , .

Was the “flash crash” on May 6th a unique event? Back to the Future: Lessons From the Forgotten ‘Flash Crash’ of 1962

The crash of 1962 is a reminder that markets always have been messy and that investors’ morale always has been fragile. What’s more, the problems the regulators sought to solve nearly a half-century ago are still with us today. They probably will be tomorrow, too.

What this means is that traders still have “fat fingers.” 8)

Ugly!

Published on May 24, 2010, 9:57 pm in Trading. 1 Comment Tags: , , , , .

I had a fun and profitable morning of trading in equities and futures…and I should have quit with money in my pocket. But no! Encouraged by my success earlier in the day, I continued to trade futures. Expecting a nice rally into the close, I played it that way. The last half hour of the day wiped out my profits for the day and cut into my account….dammit!

Okay, the lesson learned? Trade what the market is doing, not what you think it will do. I know this, but it has happened before. How did I get sucked into this…again? Not paying attention, not taking the stop, convinced that I am right and the market is wrong. I let my rules slide right by me…idiot! Oh well, I made a mistake, I admit it and tomorrow is another day to start all over again.

Speaking of which…futures are in the midst of a crashette this evening…already down over 1%….and looking for a bottom. The US dollar looks like the culprit, up strong, or maybe the euro, getting weaker…it’s all about currencies. But there may be other distractions…like a lot of countries needing to issue bonds this week, oil dwindling down and gold spiking up. Like I just learned today, trade what the market presents to me. 8O

I better go over my rules again. Here’s an interesting dichotomy:
Goldman Sachs Says Sell-Off Consistent With Past Corrections, Sees S&P 500 at 1,300.

Why Stocks Are Going Lower Long Term.

Listen to the crash II

Published on May 13, 2010, 6:25 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

A few days ago I posted an audio of tradersaudio.com squawk of the “flash crash.” Today I found this video enhanced edition directly from Ben Lichtenstein on You Tube. May 06, 2010 CRASH – S&P PIT Live Squawk Broadcast – TradersAudio.com. I still like re-living it and the charts help visualize the day! :twisted:

That’s Incredible!

Published on May 6, 2010, 9:41 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Just another day trading the markets. . . . NOT :!: A lot of margin calls taking place tonight. I think I feel sorry for a lot a “retail” traders who just happened to start to get back into the market this week or last. They may have got wiped out today. And do you think traders had stops placed based on a break of 10,000 on the Dow? Well, you saw what happened…the Dow broke 10K and a selling frenzy took place…in minutes. :cry:

The S&P broke through 1150 support at January highs then blew through 1100 or last October’s highs and then almosy made it to February’s low…but not quite. And just as quickly, no more quickly, the markets recovered!

Call option buyers were destroyed today and we still have two weeks until opex. I still think more selling will occur because an intraday 10% move just can’t occur without casualties and hedge fund liquidation. Like I said, a lot of margin calls tonite! Look for a gap down tomorrow morning as a lot of selling takes place, but then a turnaround fairly quickly as traders realize it’s a buying bonanza out there.

So was it a fat finger error? A computer error? Or just all that good news out there? Funny how all the TV stations had Greek riots showing as the market went down. Jim Chanos speaking on CNBC said, the US faces the same issues as Greece…. Too many promises that can never be paid. And then other talking heads on TV said if Germany passes Greek bailout we may see a euro recovery, but if it doesn’t pass, all hell will break loose.

Does anybody remember the week before the 1987 crash? Looking a lot like this week….as the week went down going into Friday and then BANG! Monday crash? Amazing how we are still above February’s lows. Some more amazing facts for today:

Largest intraday point drop ever

Largest Intraday Dow swing ever

Largest VIX move in one day

Largest drop in PG stock ever

I’d be interesting in anybody that was watching all this at their computer today. How did you keep your sanity? Did you blow your account? Did you make money? Happy Trading!