With bullish China, bearish earnings and a shortened option expiration week, this should be some ride. Feeling kinda toppy here though. As it’s OpEx, I’m probably watching more than trading….and I’m hoping to see more volume and more volatility. Happy Trading!
Tag Archive for 'China'
Yesterday may have been questionable. but that is a real statement today by the indexes!! Dow over 12K and many indexes up over 10% in just 3 days!! Good job bulls!
Although Europe is a mess, China is being proactive reducing rates and the economic news in the US is great…and there is a lot more news to come over the next 2 days. Here Comes Santa Claus!
Up and down a lot on decent volume…then closing mixed with most indexes red and the Nasdaq green.
Chinese CPI and PPI reported this evening looked a bit better than expected, giving futures a pop. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment reports may rule the day on Friday.
No! It’s all about the Eurozone. No one cares how good it may be in the good ole USA. GOOG blew away their estimates! VIX continues its move down. Time for a drink…plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief it is! 
Looking like the market has created a ‘W’…but we need follow through and then breakthru that 1200 region in the S&P.
Although housing data wasn’t that good today, China’s PMI was good. Asian markets and the Eurozone lead us into a a very up day. Neither hurricanes, earthquakes nor Greenspan could stop the bulls. Volume was decent for a late summer rally.
Fat Bottomed Stocks make the world go round!
Was that really an “up” day? The Dow and S&P a little green and the Russell and Naz a little red. I was like a deer in headlights… I couldn’t figure out if we were going to bounce or swirl the bowl for a cleaning flush! As it turns out, neither!
The markets were pumped in the morning with all kinds of M&A activity, but it fizzled soon after the open. Advance/Decline issues and volume were all negative, but only slightly. It really was a mixed day.
Lots of Chinese economic news coming out Monday night….CPI, PPI, Retail Sales among others. We should see some activity in the overnight. Be careful out there!
I’m worrying about keeping my electricity and Internet connection going. Got everything prepared as Northeast Ohio gets ready for another storm overnight! The roughest December I can remember…at least the most snow.
But that’s not the storm I’m thinking about. Today was the definition of volatility…. Shows you what a Monday on low volume can do. No matter which momentum indicator you use, these markets are overbought. Sentiment is way too bullish and have you looked at those Put/Call ratios? The ISEE was over 200 on Thursday and Friday…the TRIN is way too low…the Put/Call Equity Volume ratio was under .50 for several days….this market is waiting to do something…..a correction soon!
I’m sitting about 20% short, 5% long and 75% cash….this market has got to show itself eventually. Did it say something in the last hour today? Strange Brew. Let’s see what China does tonight. 
Markets are worried that some Chinese Irish contagion will explode soon….China to raise rates like South Korea and Ireland to just collapse. Throw in a little Portugal and other EU members into the recipe and you get….Today!
Knowing I wouldn’t be around much to trade today, I got out of my shorts yesterday…dammit! But, such is trading…woulda, coulda, shoulda 
Near the close today I arrived as the markets were making new lows, so I nibbled on some SPY calls and IWM calls…the SPY was filled, but the IWM was not. Futures this evening are inching up and just maybe the start of a November OpEx rally.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the week before Thanksgiving, which this is, the Dow has been up 14 of last 17 years. And, for November OpEx Friday, the Dow up 6 of last 8. And in 2008′s Nov. OpEx, the Dow surged 494 points or +6.5%. That says a lot about what we may expect over the next 3 days!
…or so it seems. The world has weighed in on the Fed’s decision to print money…and they so “no” or “stupid” or “currency manipulator!” So what does the Fed do on Friday? Print a bunch of money…with some technical difficulties. But it was not enough to move the markets up. And we have more and more printing to come: Treasury Operation Schedule.
Oh! And here’s a funny, but realistic explanation of all this: Everything you wanted to know about QE2: Quantitative Easing Explained!
But sure, there’s more going on…Chinese stocks drop on fears of tightening, the opposite of the U.S. And concerns of a Irish default and Euro debt contagion also contributes to the weakness. And since stocks were down on Friday, guess who was on CNBC? …you’re right, the perma-bear, Nouriel Roubini! But if the weekend passes without China upping the rates, we should have a nice rally on Monday.
We’ll see…but for your listening enjoyment: The World Is Not Enough.
…or is that crazy week? The old adage, “As goes AAPL, so goes the market,” sure has been holding true this month….not to far behind “As goes oil, so goes the market.” If you had either of those charts up on your screens you could watch the dance with the ES….not sure which was leading the others!
I’m hoping that the reaction to the China PMI this evening is similar to today’s Chicago PMI….sell the news, even if it’s good. I picked up some FXI puts that were green at the close, but are now looking like they will turn red at the open. That’s trading for you 
TBT on the other hand took off on the good PMI number as traders answered the question, “Why keep rates low?” The short Treasuries ETF is a bet that interest rates will be rising. I’m thinking it may be time to do that soon….how about you?
Overall this was a good week and September was a great month! If you didn’t make any money this month, it is probably time to take a break and reassess your trading plan. You may also want to read this: The Proof Is In The Numbers: America Is Getting Poorer. Misery loves company.
See you on the trading field!
Days like today are so much fun! Isn’t it wonderful what a little good news can do in an oversold market! Now can it last for another day or two and takes us into the holday all happy and giddy?
China PMI got the ball rolling yesterday, but strangely enough, the China market didn’t think it was that good. This evening China seems to be realizing it had a good report, or more appropriately, it’s just following what the US market did today.
More news tomorrow: Jobless CLaims, Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, and let’s not forget, Ben Bernanke is speaking again. Watch volume as it may go down as traders wait for Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
