Tag Archive for 'A/D'

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Published on September 9, 2011, 9:42 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Y’know on Thursday we had two highly anticipated events. First there was a speech from Bernanke. Those of us watching the markets for a response from the Fed were sadly disappointed as stocks tumbled into the close. So I guess the Fed, or Ben specifically, is just setting traders up to take action at their next meeting Sept 21st.

But then the big one from President Obama took center stage Thursday night. He unveiled his jobs growth plan. As usual, he spoke well, but it may take some time for investors to research the true value of these concepts. And more so, how the hell do you get a congress to make the ideas law?

Since it will take a bit for traders to fully digest BO’s speech, they decided to regurgitate all over the markets as the indexes trended down all day….A/D volumes down big, TRIN at over +5, Dow down over 300 points…. the final verdict will become clearer over the next couple weeks.

Now let’s hope nothing crazy happens over the 9/11 weekend!

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Greece is the word

Published on June 15, 2011, 9:47 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

We gave back much more today than we took yesterday. And boy was it volatile. But what can you expect from OpEx week and a market that reacts to any kind of news out there?

We also had the biggest volume day in 3 months! SPY volume was double its average and ES traded over three and a half million contracts. Advance/Decline volume was -12:1 to the downside. Banks/financials hurt bad and interest rates took a pounding also…just look at XLF and TBT.

And let’s not forget all that Greece and Euro news coming out every 5 minutes and changing every 10 minutes. Escalating protests, mix in some opex, jobless claims and housing starts, we should have a real party on Thursday! Be careful out there. Remember, sitting on your hands is a position :D

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What was that?

Published on June 13, 2011, 9:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Was that really an “up” day? The Dow and S&P a little green and the Russell and Naz a little red. I was like a deer in headlights… I couldn’t figure out if we were going to bounce or swirl the bowl for a cleaning flush! As it turns out, neither!

The markets were pumped in the morning with all kinds of M&A activity, but it fizzled soon after the open. Advance/Decline issues and volume were all negative, but only slightly. It really was a mixed day.

Lots of Chinese economic news coming out Monday night….CPI, PPI, Retail Sales among others. We should see some activity in the overnight. Be careful out there!

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Don’t short a dull market

Published on May 26, 2011, 9:37 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Another perfect example of the old adage! A small gap down and then just hanging around breakeven for a couple of hours. But the indexes started a steady up move.

Around ES 1324 it was very tempting to short….and I did for a point….got out quickly, that was enough. The bulls would not be denied today. And volume was the highest this week! Not by much but still about 5% above the rest of the week. A/D volumes were above +3:1 and A/D issues were greater than +2:1….pretty nice.

Wonder if any traders are taking off early for the long weekend?

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Rest in Peace

Published on May 25, 2011, 10:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Mark Haines dies at age 65. Prayers to him and his family. The world responded as when any icon passes away. I’ve watched him for may many years….about 15. It really is a personal loss for many viewers.

The markets started negative but were able recover to stop from having 4 negative days in a row. Looking a lot like a short term bounce here. Markets usually have a positive bent leading up to a patriotic holiday. Since this is the first summer holiday, I think volume should go downhill from here. ES traded 2.1 million contracts today.

We have GDP and Jobless Claims reports on Thrusday which may just set a tone for the market. Pending Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending on Friday….with really low volume. Futures are up, so far, this evening.

We have met the enemy, and they are us. –Pogo

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Monday, Monday

Published on May 23, 2011, 10:56 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Monday Monday, can’t trust that day. News was slow in the US but the news from Europe started the downward trend early and was reinforced with the Italy downgrade later in the day. The dollar went up, everything else went down…except for bonds of course. Advance/Decline volume was way down at -9:1

Dick Arms, the creator of The Arms Index, also known as TRIN, says: a TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. The TRIN closed at 2.23 today. We’ll see how this works out on Tuesday.

Signing off before the thunderstorm knocks me out!

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Just waiting

Published on December 28, 2010, 8:14 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Well another mixed up day. Yes the markets are inching up, but volume very low. You can’t trust the technical indicators because of the lack of volume and momentum. All the indexes are just hanging around waiting for the year to end.

And you can’t tell anything from the advance/decline lines or new highs or new lows. The entire market is going nowhere fast, and since my technical indicators are based on the underlying market, they may not be saying anything of any value. Oh well!

Looking over my small positions I’m carrying, I am short the market…nothing leveraged or over-indulgent…but still getting ready for the crash….well a correction anyway.

This next year, both Groundhog Day and the State of the Union address occur on the same day. “It is an ironic juxtaposition of events; one involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to a creature of little intelligence for prognostication while the other involves a groundhog.”

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Almost a really good day

Published on August 17, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.

There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 8O

I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.

Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.

Happy trading!

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Happy Birthday

Published on August 4, 2010, 9:40 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Well you’re probably thinking I’m talking about our president, but no. A few years before him my wife was born, so happy b’day honey!

The markets must have been happy also….but I think it was more a reaction to reports. Although we had good reports for ADP Employment and ISM Services, China came out saying they were going to stress test their banks for a 60% drop in mortgage value. Hmmm, sounds like they may know something? Well it was enough to spook traders and the markets came down pretty hard….and that was the first hour! 8O

The rest of the day the markets just meandered up and down, but closing green with an A/D volume of over 2:1. So we’re still sitting good, but trepidation about Friday’s employment report may keep things subdued for Thursday. On the other side of that argument, Thursday’s Initial Claims report may stir it up!

Here’s to the rest of the week acting like the first part….profitable. Now, back to the birthday party. :lol:

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Chop continues

Published on July 28, 2010, 10:12 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

The blades have to be getting dull on this chopper. All the indexes ended in the red, off anywhere from a quarter percent to one and a half percent. Volume was extremely low and Advance/decline volumes were barely down two to one.

But which way do we go now? I’m positioned on the long side, so I want the market to go long. Unfortunately, the market never does what I want it to do. So, play the charts. But I can’t tell from the charts. The only play I have is to tighten stops and maybe hedge a bit with TZA BGZ or maybe just S&P futures.

I’ll be listening in on the DRYS conference call on Thursday morning. Earnings came out after the close today and looked good. Now we need some good news…like an IPO or a sale. 8)

Thursday brings us the largest single day of earnings reports of the season. And let’s not forget our weekly headache of Initial Unemployment Claims. Something’s got to move in a confident direction, either up or down….soon, I hope. Good luck tomorrow!

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