As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.
There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 
I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.
Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.
Happy trading!
Well you’re probably thinking I’m talking about our president, but no. A few years before him my wife was born, so happy b’day honey!
The markets must have been happy also….but I think it was more a reaction to reports. Although we had good reports for ADP Employment and ISM Services, China came out saying they were going to stress test their banks for a 60% drop in mortgage value. Hmmm, sounds like they may know something? Well it was enough to spook traders and the markets came down pretty hard….and that was the first hour!
The rest of the day the markets just meandered up and down, but closing green with an A/D volume of over 2:1. So we’re still sitting good, but trepidation about Friday’s employment report may keep things subdued for Thursday. On the other side of that argument, Thursday’s Initial Claims report may stir it up!
Here’s to the rest of the week acting like the first part….profitable. Now, back to the birthday party. 
The blades have to be getting dull on this chopper. All the indexes ended in the red, off anywhere from a quarter percent to one and a half percent. Volume was extremely low and Advance/decline volumes were barely down two to one.
But which way do we go now? I’m positioned on the long side, so I want the market to go long. Unfortunately, the market never does what I want it to do. So, play the charts. But I can’t tell from the charts. The only play I have is to tighten stops and maybe hedge a bit with TZA BGZ or maybe just S&P futures.
I’ll be listening in on the DRYS conference call on Thursday morning. Earnings came out after the close today and looked good. Now we need some good news…like an IPO or a sale. 
Thursday brings us the largest single day of earnings reports of the season. And let’s not forget our weekly headache of Initial Unemployment Claims. Something’s got to move in a confident direction, either up or down….soon, I hope. Good luck tomorrow!
I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.
The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.
Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.
And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”
And people wonder how I got the name of this blog.
Initial Claims higher, that sucks! The morning was entirely Bizzaro world, when all asset classes went down: dollar, oil, stocks, gold all down! Wasn’t that like an apocalypse? I was ready to capitulate, but I had a meeting to get to.
It was a day that made me money….through no fault of my own. I had put in some ES buy stops at 1013 before going to a luncheon meeting. As it turns out, I was filled and when I got back, ES was at 1023. I sold immediately when I saw that!! Thank you market.
Well, I’m not sure it was a key reversal, but the bulls shouldn’t be too discouraged. The market performed well off of a bottom. Advance/Decline volumes were -16:1 early in the morning but ended the day close to 1:1. Tomorrow is the start of a long weekend and we may see some patriotic buying.
It was surprising that the market was able to recover as much as it did with all the bad news this week. Today’s Initial Claims pretty much told us that Friday’s NFP report will be ugly. Home sales confirmed what we all knew. And the gold bugs got blasted bad! One more thing, AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish sentiment has now stayed above its historical average for 8 straight weeks. How can any market go up after all that?
We may not go up much, but we are oversold and it is the beginning of a new quarter and a national holiday. A bounce is in order.
The Advance/Decline volume was amazing on Friday….just look at that number…-124:1. You don’t see that very often 
And the TRIN got up pretty high also: 13.53 at the close, it was even higher during the day. Take a look at this chart.
Now the TRIN I take with a grain of salt. It does not seem to be as accurate since the advent of reverse ETFs. But, according to the book The Arms Index, a TRIN close over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Markets are in trouble. My gut says we’re in trouble. 
The newest acronym I found this weekend? the PIGSHIT economies – Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Turkey. Now, doesn’t that say it all!
Dow up almost 500 points off the lows and S&P is 60 points up, all in 5 days. Sure it’s been an up and down, zigzag road, but do you think we’ve seen the bottom of this correction?
The Advance/Decline volumes were big today, much bigger than yesterday’s down volume: Naz +8:1 NYSE +18:1 RUT +11:1 All US stocks +10:1 yeah baby! The TICK stayed above the -400 line most of the day, dipping down just occasionally. And futures this evening and Asian markets are acting nicely. Euro moving up and US$ moving down….C’mon Europe you can do it!
Lotsa news on Thursday….before the open we have ADP Employment Change, Productivity-Revision, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Claims and Continuing Claims. As if that wasn’t enough we get Factory Orders and ISM Services after the open. Will there be enough good news out of all that to have a confirmation day? The Dow and S&P haven’t strung 2 up days together since April!
OK bulls, you better pull this off tomorrow 
This was a different kind of day….the markets continued in the direction they opened….and in a very strong fashion. Advance/Decline volumes were huge: NYSE A/D volume closed at +34:1. That’s a decisively positive day! It’s not often you see a panic buying spree. Now, do we get some follow-through on Friday?
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, Friday before Memorial Day tends to be lackluster with light trading. But, over 60% are bullish! Maybe we do get a follow-through.
My long positions were looking a lot better today than earlier this week. C UWM and ABK are all green. UCO which was way underwater is now getting close to the surface and may get green in a day or two. My DRYS calls still have a way to go, but I have until January for them to recover.
Going through my scans this evening, there are way more stocks than I can keep track of during the day. So I may fine tune and keep scanning to pick the cream of the crop.
Tomorrow, I’m hoping, I can actually get out of some of my positions. I’d like to lighten up for the weekend. Besides, I need to buy a lot of ribs and beer! We’ll see how that goes. Have a great Friday if you’re trading….and if you’re not, have a wonderful weekend.
The markets started out to be a great start to a great day. But, all of a sudden, the sh!t hit the fan! What was that all about? Wednesday turned out to be another Monday. Ay least this time I wasn’t in there hoping I was out.
A/D volumes were so strong most of the day…the NYSE A/D volume was averaging like +7:1. But after that closing hour we were at 1:1…that sucked. All the indexes were making new 52-week highs but still not very impressive with a close like we had. All the new highs were made earlier in the day.
52-week highs look like they’ve been basing for a couple of weeks now. I hope today wasn’t a false alarm!
The S&P futures have criss-crossed the cash SPX a couple times today. The June futures contract has only 3 more weeks of life and the September contract is slowly but surely picking up in volume. It would be interesting to see the futures get ahead of the cash…and pull it up. After hours now, futures are way below the cash close.
Big day tomorrow with GDP and Jobless Claims in the morning. But they may not matter. The European Central Banks need to do something…like maybe reducing interest rates, to save themselves…and they better do it soon.
Volume may start dwindling as we head into the holiday weekend. And while we’re at it, make sure you thank family and friends of those that have given their lives just so we can do what we do! Peace.
This morning started with a strange sucking noise as the markets lured the bullish sheep into its trap before the bottom gives way and they all get the shaft. Isn’t that how tops are made? When everyone rushes in before they think the market takes off without them?
New 52-week highs blasted thru and passed Friday’s highs. But with so much power in that thrust, how come the markets didn’t do much at all? All the indexes were in the red except for the Dow…and that was only because of CAT. Advance/decline lines were negative as was the A/D volume. Strange brew! Or should we just say divergence big time!
And what a change of character this afternoon when the dollar broke down AND the markets followed suit. It’s been a long time since that has happened. Usually dollar down equals markets up and vice versa. Another divergence?
This is a pretty scary market and it just may be time for a downside move…a correction…or maybe something a bit more sinister? Oh, and one more thing…a Monday that was finally to the downside. Signs That Could Mark A Top
News will pickup for the rest of the week as Tuesday will bring Consumer Confidence and Home Price Index. The FOMC begins a meeting Tuesday and a rate decision will be announced on Wednesday. What do you think….maybe a rate increase in the works? At the least traders will be looking for a change in the language. Oh boy, the last week of April promises to be fun!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
