One of those weird days when gold, oil and the dollar, along with stocks, were up! As expected Durable Goods and the New Home sales sucked. Unexpected was the big oil inventories build-up, which sunk oil prices. But, like the last time this happened in late May, traders saw opportunity and started buying oil futures. And like it has done all year, oil led a move to the upside for stocks.
Keep an eye on oil to see which way we go stockwise. If oil continues its bravery, watch UCO USO and ERX.
Semiconductors also had some oomph in its step, most likely with the help of AAPL and INTC, but also watch XLK and SMH.
The crash for the day belongs to golfer Jim Furyk: Jim Furyk is disqualified from Barclays for missing pro-am tee time. Gee if he traveled more often he would know wbout hotel wake-up calls! 
Published on
July 20, 2010,
10:36 pm in
Opinions, Tools and Trading.
Tags: AAPL, BAC, C, dollar, GE, GS, oil, Tools.
So wasn’t there some news this morning about bad earnings from GS? And weren’t C BAC GE still bad? Isn’t everyone worried about the bank stress test in Europe? So why are all the traders happy today?
Funny that the US dollar did not matter, or at least there is not that strong correlation between the US$ and the markets. Oil still seems to be correlated, as oil went up so did the indexes.
Lots and lots of earnings on Wednesday…and even more on Thursday! I’m interested in MS WFC KO QCOM and NFLX. That should give me an idea of how the world is doing. 
And if the markets can’t rally on this evening’s AAPL report, then we’re in real trouble!
I apologize for some short blog entries, but I’m having technical difficulties with my hardware this week. I have tracked the problem(s) down, but new parts will take 7-10 days. In the mean time I’ve fired up a backup PC and getting it ready for trading tomorrow.
See you on the playing field.
C joined BAC and JPM with higher than expected earnings and improved credit trends. But they and all financials puked on Friday. You have to wonder… If you’re making more money on less revenue, isn’t that a good thing? Would you rather see increased revenues with lower earnings?
This earnings season expectations are that all earnings will be good, and so far so good. It’s all about what you say in your conference call. BAC laid out a scenario that doesn’t sit well for any financial institution. They are saying that FinReg will curb debit-card fees and that will reduce revenues and increase costs. In BAC’s case, they say they may have to take a charge of up to $10 Billion dollars. That’s gonna hurt not only BAC, but all banks and financials, like MA and V. Boy did that show on Friday!
So now July OpEx Friday is down 7 of last 10. That sucks…and I’m reading in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, that in the week after July OpEx, the Dow has been down 7 of the last 11 years. That’s ominous.
This week will be one of the biggies with hundreds of earnings reports, including GS and AAPL, 11 of the Dow Industrials, and about every airline! Ben Bernanke speaks on the Hill, but otherwise a fairly data-quiet week.
And one more for the intereting reading pile: Short side of commodity market becomes crowded.
See you in the market 
The day started off giddy with AAPL excitement, but soon tamed down and moved back and forth between red and green. All the indexes, except for the NYSE, closed barely green. After the close some bad reports from QCOM AMGN and EBAY sent futures moving to the downside…and they continue down thru the evening.
With the big up move in the Q’s thanks to AAPL, I thought I’d nibble on some puts, along with adding to my TZA position. The SPY looks like it may have formed a double-top over the past several days. Maybe tomorrow we see a confirmation of failed top. Also note that we continue to have increased volume only to the downside. 
Tomorrow we have Jobless Claims and lots of earnings reports. If neither of those have any good news, we may get real ugly. Here’s some more reading to cheer you up:
Greek Workers to Strike Today as Papandreou Faces Bond Rout
Do Bank of America’s Blowout Earnings Actually Blow?
See you tomorrow on the battlefield….or maybe I’ll just sleep-in.
Well, the 52-week high chart didn’t help me at all today…but that doesn’t mean it is not giving me a signal. 52-week highs were more than yesterday but still well behind what they were doing last week.
YHOO missed earnings this evening, but AAPL blew them out…and I mean big time! Can it follow-thru tomorrow though? Lots more earnings to come this week, but AAPL was the biggie….at least since GOOG came out last Thursday.
Futures are pretty happy this evening. But how high can we go? We’re breaking records left and right on consecutive up day, low VIX, volume, and just about everything. What I’m worried about now is: are we past time for a correction and are we looking for a crash?
This morning the markets took me back to 1999…watching some stocks go up for no reason, but this time with no volume. The Nasdaq running up with AAPL going crazy because of a news story…and VZ on its coattails…flashback! It’s just amazing to me that anyone would want to go long any stock here. Certainly correction is imminent….Isn’t it?
AAPL is now bigger than BRKA, GE, PG, JNJ, GOOG and JPM. The only companies larger right now are MSFT, XOM and WMT. But just wait….a few more iSomething-or-others and they’ll be the biggest. 
I’m not looking to get into any new positions, just looking to get out for the long weekend. I’m looking to get into cash mostly. If I do hold anything it will probably be an inverse ETF or two…..like SDS or BGZ or TZA. Whichever, it will be a small position. I’ve got 2 more days to decide.
We’ve got 4 reports tomorrow that have market moving potential: 1. ADP Employment Change 2. Chicago PMI 3. Factory Orders 4. Crude Inventories. They’re listed not only in the order of announcement, but also in the order of potential movement in the market. It is also the last day of the month and the 1st quarter…..And don’t forget RIMM has an earnings report after the close.
April Fool’s on Thursday. The fool most likely is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who have decided to announce March’s Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment report on a market holiday Friday…duh!
Dollar strong and futures weak this evening. Looking forward to some selling for the month/quarter end. If we don’t get that, even just a little bit, bears may just have to give it up and let the bulls run. Happy trading!
Y’know…for the market to correct. I’ve been preparing for it, but it never comes. Every time the bears make a play, the bulls trample them. But, the volume of bulls keeps getting lower and lower. Monday continued it habit of a green up day.
Did you notice this morning that the indexes opened up and so did the VIX? Usually one is up and the other down. That got me worried that something was going to happen…but it didn’t. Seems like cash is probably the best position to be in, but I keep nibbling on the short side with QQQQ puts and the inverse ETF TZA. I’m also on the long side with DRYS…so I guess I go both ways. 
After hours trading today was wild. AAPL and VZ busted to the upside when the Wall Street Journal reported AAPL to make an iPhone for the Verizon network. Of course this hurt both RIMM and T which went the other way. Another move was GNVC when they announced a failure of a Phase 3 trial…the stock dove 75%….traders couldn’t get out fast enough. 
Tuesday we get the Home Price Index and the Consumer Confidence Index along with a spattering of earnings reports. Let’s see if any of those can get us a turnaround Tuesday….to the downside.
Here’s some reading that should show us the way….
Consequences Of Health Care: Valuations
Massive Deficits, Debt Overhang and Rising Bond Yields
Raise Taxes and Cut Services? Why Not Stop Unnecessary Bailouts, Unnecessary Wars and Unnecessary Interest Costs Instead?
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
