I fought the market today, and the market won! Do you ever feel like the Black Knight in the Holy Grail movie? I was the knight today and King Arthur was the market.
The individual investor has left the marketplace…computers and HFT are in charge! This can only help the bears ravage the market. Did you see some of those whips in nanoseconds? The bid/ask spreads were pretty wide also. Nobody can click a mouse that fast.
I spent most of the day just trying to get to cash with minimal losses. I was zigging and zagging as snipers kept shooting. 
I think I’ll trade futures this evening and take it easy during the cash market hours. Seems like the futures markets are much more reasonable and orderly during the night sessions. Night time money spends just as well as day time money!
New Home Sales report Wednesday…hoping it’s not as big a stinker as existing home sales were today. But we also have Durable goods before and oil inventories after. Oh boy, another quiet day! 
Wow, what an an illiquid violent market today, with big bid/ask spreads. The first 30 minutes had me feeling real good about today’s market, but it quickly dwindled away. The markets closed near their lows….looking like a setup for a another drop tomorrow. The only hope is that it finds a bottom and starts a climb….turnaround Tuesday? Wobbly Wednesday? Thoroughly-ugly Thursday? F’ked-up Friday?
Tuesday we have Existing Home Sales and Wednesday is New Home Sales. Thursday brings us the usual Jobless Claims and the biggie of the week is on Friday, GDP with a smattering of Consumer Sentiment.
Now here’s a hypothesis…..traders think that home sales, unemployment and GDP are going to suck, so they started the sell off today. So if any of those reports come in just a little bit better than expected, we just may have a bottom and a take-off to the upside. Well….it is possible. 
And remember…
Hoping or Wishing or Praying = exit position immediately!
Diving right from the git-go, the morning turned out to be a wait-and-see when low would be low enough. By noontime the low was hit and the slow climb up started and continued for the rest of the day. At one point all the indexes were green, but they couldn’t hold it. The Nasdaq was able to close in the green and the Russell was nearby but closed slightly red. I was disappointed that the markets weren’t more volatile for an options expiration….volume was down from yesterday also. Can’t really decide if Friday was bearish or bullish. 
The S&P is still bouncing within this 3-month long channel.
If it’s going to obey the channel, it needs to bounce….a dead-cat or bull resumption bounce.
We’re in the summer doldrums and still have another 2 weeks to go. We’ve also had a lot of bad economic news but the market has been able to maintain itself within the channel. It still has not challenged the May, June or July lows….although it is trading below the 20- 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The semiconductors SOX had a good week, but we still need those banks BKX to show some enthusiasm. And oil sure could use a fire under its barrel.
Charts are very schizophrenic! Arguments can be made for a long and/or short position. Cash may be the position of choice, at least until the charts points one way….or the other. 
Published on
August 19, 2010,
10:39 pm in
Trading.
Tags: BGU, SSO.
Well what do you expect when you get bitch-slapped 3 times real hard in a matter of 90 minutes. Jobless claims, Philly Fed and Leading indicators were rough, like wiping with sandpaper!
Reading market analysts and blogs this evening was like watching a tennis match…I can’t tell if this is the begining of the end, or the end of the beginning. Is this the start of a larger run down, or a selloff before the run-up?
I played the countertrend today with entries and exits in BGU and SSO…just some scalps, but did end the day buying a quarter position in BGU at 43.77 which was green by the close of afterhours trading. Since the market hurt all the bulls today, it probably wants to hurt the bears on Friday.
Today’s volume was the highest of the week and the Advance/Decline Volume was very negative at -12:1. No news on Friday so it’s all up to OpEx Friday to drum up the business. Maybe a few more M&A announcements can get the bulls all riled.
Sure we ended in the green…and we rallied early in the day with the Dow coming from a 75 point deficit up 142 points! But, there’s always a but, the Dow closed at +9 and the Dow futures (YM) continued to sell off after the cash close. All the index futures closed in the red. These end of day selloffs are getting consistently ugly. 
We have two chances tomorrow of making some news that moves: Initial Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. I think I’ll sit and wait.
As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.
There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous.
I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.
Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.
Happy trading!
For three days in a row we have opened and closed right about the same place. This kind of trading shows we are confused and don’t know which way to go!
August is usually tricky trading because of the low volume. It’s a time to practice holding onto your money or taking a vacation.
I’m sitting a little bit long with a few January call options in XLK XLE XLF and TBT. I’m holding most of my money, but thought some limited speculative plays using options wouldn’t break my bank. Here’s to a great 200-point turnaround Tuesday! 
It’s time for the retailers to be reporting earnings, and many are doing it this week. But since we know retailers and consumers have been sucking wind, it should all be priced in. But, we also have PPI, housing starts and leading indicators, so looks like another news driven week coming up.
The major indicies are trapped in a sideways pattern from Thursday. You could tell from the big time chop and whipsaws while waiting until we get a breakout on either side. By the early evening action today of the futures, that breakout may be to the downside.
Japan reported a much worse than expected Q2 GDP, and futures reacted immediately down, but are recovering slowly. We’ll see what morning brings.
Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!
Let’s start with a funny:
“This week in 1861, the first federal income tax was instituted to pay for the Civil War. These days, we don’t worry about that kind of stuff. Our wars are paid for by our grandchildren.” — Jay Leno
Ok, now start reading:
`Hindenburg Omen’ Suggests Another Leg Down in Stocks: Technical Analysis.
More HO stuff: The Hindenburg Omen did NOT Volley & Thunder from Ian Woodward’s Investing Blog.
How Stocks Have Done On Friday The 13th Since 1900.
The Geography of a Recession, or, what does the unemployment rate look like since January 2007?
Rising Profits Are Good, but There’s a Catch.
Obama defends ground zero mosque plans. Our President couldn’t find the time to attend the National Day of Prayer which is completely non-demoninational, but he can schedule to host an Iftar dinner? Asshole!
BofA, Citi added as lead GM IPO underwriters.
Financials Now Attractive for First Time in Months.
Before you run off to read all those, here’s another laugh:
“The U.S. Postal Service reported a $3.5 billion loss in the last quarter, which established it as the federal government’s most successful enterprise.” — Jay Leno
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
