Trading thoughts, ideas, tips, musings, and pontifications. . .not necessarily in that order.
The ups and downs of OpEx continue throughout the week….and we finally close the week tomorrow, Friday. Earnings have been lackluster so far. The volume today was up big compared to recent days, but the bears have not taken hold of the markets…yet.
The day was sad because of the passing of Levon Helm….here’s one of The Band‘s best… The Weight …a nice voice and a good person. RIP!!
Like a bad penny, options expiration is upon us again. Plus there are a boatload of earnings report during this week. On the good side, it’s a slow economic news week…as if the earnings won’t make it a wild ride already. With earning expectations being lowered during the first quarter, many companies may “beat” earnings allowing for another run up in the indexes.
Like yesterday, markets were mixed as the Dow lead the way up, but AAPL and GOOG dragged down the Nasdaq and kept the S&P and Russell in check. Buckle up and let’s roll! 
Well….I think we’ve got the full reaction to Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll Report). There was no U.S. trading on Friday and no European trading on Monday, so Tuesday was the first day when worldwide traders could say ‘FU’ to the report.
AA kicking off the earnings season with a good report, should lead the oversold markets on a bounce up. Globex overnight futures are confirming that. The question…do we go and test the highs first or just reverse and look for a bottom? With the Russell and Nasdaq showing weakness, we’ll need the techs and small companies to turnaround before going back for highs.
We’re going to be looking at the Beige Book this afternoon. And don’t forget, OpEx next week.
On Friday we have the BIG monthly employment numbers coming out, but the U.S. markets will be closed, so no trader reactions will be seen. And then on Monday, most European markets will be closed, so nothing going on there.
It won’t be until Tuesday that we will see full world trader reaction to those numbers. By then of course, something else will come up for us to mumble about.
So how do you trade these numbers? Initial Claims for this week is 357,000…which is 2,000 more than the expected 355,000. Based on last week’s IC of 359,000, traders were looking for a decrease of 4,000 claims. Not much, but going in the right direction. But (there’s always a but…) last week’s claims were revised upward (aren’t they always?) to 363,000. So is the “expected” number based on published numbers (-4k) or revised numbers (-8k)?
Now then, we reduced claims by 2000 based on last week’s numbers or 6000 based on revised numbers. Last week’s published numbers are bogus. Either way, expectations were not met. we either missed the expected number by 2000 or 6000 depending on which numbers you use. Glad I took all those geometry, trigonometry and calculus courses in college!
Seems like New Years was not that long ago, but a quarter of the year is at end. Have you started your Christmas shopping yet?
We’ve had 2.5 down days and 1.5 consolidation days this week. The last 2 days of the 1st quarter are seasonally bearish days, while the first week of the 2nd quarter is seasonally bullish, at least according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. What makes it confusing on the last day of March is that the Dow has been down 12 of the last 17 years, but the Russell 2000 has been up 13 of the last 17 years. Oh my!
Next week will be a shortened holiday week with markets closed on Good Friday. April is the best month for the Dow, 2nd best for the S&P and 4th best for the Russell. So maybe the good times will continue for another month. On the flip side, April ends the “best 6 months” of the trading year. We’ve got 30 days to decide if we should “sell in May and go away!”
The volume continues to decline and so does the VIX as we mentioned before. . . .as do many others in the blogosphere. Here’s a thought: What the Heck is Happeneing with the VIV and VXX?
Yesterday, the S&P, or actually the ES futures contract) hung just above and below breakeven, having low volume spurts in either direction. And again, I’m just scalping for lunch money, with no committment to either direction. Here’s some stories you may enjoy. . . and learn.
Are traders still hungover from green beer? Volume is low and volatility (VIX) is even lower.
The end of the 1st quarter is in sight, just 8 days away, and fund managers are finagling their quarter-end reports…but not too many of them yet. All the action so far this week has been AAPL and BAC, but that’s just because of news and rumors.
So the market keeps dragging its knuckles up hill with a few resting points and small retreats… exactly what it’s been doing since December. I’m trading for nickles and dimes here…making a few dimes and losing a few nickles. 
AAPL, Apple, iPad, Apple iPod, Apple iPhone! Oh yes….AAPL the stock. And that is all
Yes it is…keeps coming back like a bad penny! 
And what makes this one interesting, as if they aren’t all interesting? Well first is today’s FOMC meeting and then Thursday we have the release of the stress tests on the banks.
Monday was a blank day with the S&P at no change, a doji. But all the bulls let out their frustrations on Tuesday after a fairly upbeat FOMC report and a generally good mood on Wall Street with JPM saying they will increase their dividend. WTF? Wasn’t the law laid down that no bank could announce anything until after the numbers are released on Thursday? Again….WTF!
The Fed lies, Wall Street lies, everybody lies! How is the little guy supposed to trade this market? Oh, that’s right, we’re not!
| INDU | 0.00 | |||||||
| NASDAQ | 2847.21 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1315.99 | |||||||
| ^RUT | 764.64 | |||||||
| QID | 34.83 | |||||||
| QQQ | 62.51 | |||||||
| QLD | 50.55 | |||||||
| TZA | 21.71 | |||||||
| SSO | 51.03 | |||||||
| SDS | 16.99 | |||||||
| BGZ | 24.01 | |||||||
| BGU | 70.03 | |||||||
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
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