Archive for the 'Opinions' Category

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This should be interesting…

Published on August 7, 2011, 8:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

After a 400 point range in the Dow, it ended up only 60 points. All the other indexes closed in the red. WTF?

Friday looked like massive margin calls and forced liquidations after the big run down on Thursday. Rumors began to circulate during the day that S&P was going to do what it finally did after hours…downgrade US debt. If the S&P knocked down the US debt, don’t they also knock down the holders of that debt?

Here’s the remaining countries with a triple A rating: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. How far can they go with having “superior” debt? Buffett Says Cutting U.S. Rating Was Mistake, Sees No Recession.

The first reaction I had (as if anyone cared) is pass off all the US “peace-keeping” duties to these countries and let them take care of “us.” And quit “loaning” money to other countries. And quit giving money to people that haven’t put any money into the pot (read as welfare) …freeloaders! Sorry, I digress.

Here’s the S&P Ratings Report http://stk.ly/nzkwsU. Interesting reading.

Ok, back to trading. I’m definitely going to tread lightly. Futures this evening gapped down big…ES down 35 points, Dow down 325 pts. They have recovered about a third since the 6PM open. I’ve put bonds and the VIX on my short list via TBT calls and VIX puts. The metals may be a good short also via DZZ and ZSL, but I’ll put them in second place because I’ve been burned by them before.

Although only the Globex is open, Asia markets should open soon…and so far, it’s a pretty tame open for the past 2 hours. Maybe this was all baked in the previous two weeks?

Good luck on Monday and thanks for reading.

P.S. Just remember, if the Dow falls more than 30 percent (3600 pts), the market will close! Don’t think we get there, but keep it in mind?

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Weekend Reading 8/6/11

Published on August 6, 2011, 9:28 am in Opinions and reading. Closed

“According to a recent survey, kids are receiving an average of 40 cents less from the tooth fairy. That’s right, the economy is so bad that even make-believe people are feeling the pinch.” — Conan O’Brien

Our Government at Work! Oh sorry, must be a bad link :-)

Rating agencies suck! Furious Behind The Scenes War Going On Over Threat To Remove US AAA Rating! Oh, by the way, we’re not very good at math! UPDATE: S&P Downgrades US To AA+, Outlook Negative – Full Text. And one more: Market to Force Hand of Central Banks.

Always borrow money from a pessimist. He won’t expect it back. :-)

Do we make too much of the 200-day moving average? Stocks’ drop through moving averages may say sell and Market’s major trend now down.

Geek alert!…The Evolution of Computer Programming Languages..a learning pictorial of what runs our life.

Well, which is it….inflation, deflation or stagnation? Inflation worries pose bar to QE3.

With the current economy, the American people are finding themselves between “Barack and a hard place.”

Here’s what I’m doing this weekend: Apes Will Rise at Box Offices This Weekend.

Was your week like this? E-Trade Baby Loses Everything.

Obama-Care? Greece’s healthcare system is on the brink of catastrophe.

“A man jumped the White House fence, but after a brief chase, the Secret Service was able to talk President Obama into coming back and finishing his term.” — Conan O’Brien

And one more thing….Overnight shipping available! :!:

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Debt ping-pong

Published on July 25, 2011, 9:55 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: .

Millions of people have charged more than their credit limits. Besides the astronomical size of the U.S. credit card, I just don’t get why this is such a big deal. I’ve gone over the limit before and I’ve paid it off…eventually. Once you go over your limit, you can’t use your card any more. So in this case, wouldn’t that be a good thing? What I really hate is all this fear-mongering by the government and embellished by the media…or is that the government public relations department?

The markets opened with a big gap down and during the day we almost closed that gap. Unfortunately, the B&B show (Barack & Boehner) came on during the afternoon and the markets bled the rest of the way. Now that everyone is done bitching, maybe they can say “Let’s make a deal!” Should see it in the next couple of days.

So today was a day to do nothing….no volume at all. Let’s start the week on Tuesday and take it from there.

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Try, try again

Published on July 22, 2011, 10:53 am in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

We’ve got yet another bailout on Greece! What is this? Number 10? While the U.S. markets had their run-up on Thursday, Asia and Europe caught up overnight. It’s Friday….a hot summer day….no eco reports…will anyone be trading today? Sounds like a day for cold beers and a lot of sweating (who wants to drink beer in front of an air conditioner?).

Working on this week’s reading material. Have a great weekend all!

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C’mon get happy!

Published on July 21, 2011, 11:05 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

After a day of rest on Wednesday, the bulls continued their Tuesday run…impressive…and on higher volume! US exonomic reports were not that good, but all we care about is what’s happening to Greece and the Euro….and that news was good. So the markets might as well go up.

And tomorrow we have no economic reports, so the markets will have to hold itself up or get crushed under its own weight. Well, we do have some big earnings reports though, from GE CAT SLB MCD VZ among others. And we don’t know what kind of news or rumors may come out. So, it’s trade as usual…carefully and with a plan. C’mon Get Happy!

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QE2 is dead, long live QE2

Published on June 22, 2011, 10:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Are we done or are we not? Reading this New York Fed release, Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities, it looks like it will continue as a “once-a-month” version. At least for a while, maybe the next Jackson Hole get together, and then announce something a bit more definite.

The day was mediocre, low volume, no action until the last 90 minutes, when everything just went down. The indexes hung around breakeven all day, but when Ben Bernanke explained how awful our economy will be for the next 2 years, traders bailed. Oh well, there goes out 4 day winning streak!

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Moody Moody

Published on June 19, 2011, 9:20 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed

Again a rating agency decides to announce on options expiration Friday, that they will be doing a “Ratings On Review For Possible Downgrade By Moody’s.” WTF? Isn’t that their business? Why do they have to “announce” that they will be doing that? It’s amazing to see ratings agencies move markets like they do. Such interesting timing — did Moody’s just figured out on Friday afternoon of options expiration just before the close to announce what they should be doing all the time? :!:

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Rest in Peace

Published on May 25, 2011, 10:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Mark Haines dies at age 65. Prayers to him and his family. The world responded as when any icon passes away. I’ve watched him for may many years….about 15. It really is a personal loss for many viewers.

The markets started negative but were able recover to stop from having 4 negative days in a row. Looking a lot like a short term bounce here. Markets usually have a positive bent leading up to a patriotic holiday. Since this is the first summer holiday, I think volume should go downhill from here. ES traded 2.1 million contracts today.

We have GDP and Jobless Claims reports on Thrusday which may just set a tone for the market. Pending Home Sales and Personal Income and Spending on Friday….with really low volume. Futures are up, so far, this evening.

We have met the enemy, and they are us. –Pogo

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Anybody home?

Published on April 26, 2011, 9:19 pm in Opinions. Closed Tags: , .

Well, volume was 2 times yesterday’s volume, but that still is not saying much. Traders still on Easter vacation?

S&P at new highs…follow through or do we bang our heads up here and tumble down?

History to be made tomorrow as the FOMC rate announcement will be followed with a Q&A with Ben Bernanke in the spotlight. Could be a scary moment :twisted:

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Interest rates anyone?

Published on April 6, 2011, 10:23 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , , .

Although volume is still low, it was the highest volume of the week. And crude and gold and silver are still manic bulls! And although we had a gap open to the positive side this morning, we quickly started to meander and flirt with red and green and back to red and back to green. Volatility remained low, confirmed by a narrow-range VIX.

I had a great day taking profits in F ZION and TBT. I’m all out of F and ZION, but still have several options in TBT. Banks/financials finally had their day today and am still holding C XLF and HCBK. My long hedges are SPY puts and a few SDS calls. It was a good day for the ol’ portfolio.

With the ECB announcing their rate hike Thursday morning (about 7:45AM EST), I’ll be watching TBT closely to make sure it does not become a “sell the news” event. If the UK also announces a rate hike, it could turn into a great day for TBT. Either way, interest rates and inflation will be moving up eventually! I’ve also got DZZ and ZSL on my watchlist…those ETFs are gold short and silver short….gotta come down soon, don’t you think?

“It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver.”
— Mahatma Gandhi

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