“President Obama said he can’t walk around with his birth certificate plastered on his forehead. Apparently he was reacting to new polls that show 1 in 5 Kenyans now believe he was born in Hawaii.” – Jay Leno
Nonfarm payrolls drop by 54k in August, jobless rate rises to 9.6 pct
Jobs Data Provide Hope
Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis
Has The Fed Run Out Of Ammunition To Resuscitate The U.S. Economy?
Jason Leavitt Interviewed by Matt Davio
The Apathy Trade. Did September come in August this year?
The Real Story on the economy.
“In only his second Oval Office address, President Obama announced the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom. He said we have given the Iraqis a Western-style government. Well, we certainly have, haven’t we? Their economy is in shambles, their Congress is corrupt, the country is broke, welcome aboard!” – Jay Leno
Have a wonderful and safe Labor Day Weekend 
Yes, it’s all about the employment numbers on Friday. Are we overbought?….but is it a good overbought? The kind of overbought we got into in mid-March 2009? Friday’s reports will tell us.
All the news has been “not bad” the past 2 days…and if we can get another day’s worth, boy oh boy, we may go into the Labor Day weekend over 1100 S&P. Got to admit, that would be nice!
My moneymakers today were QTM AEZS USO and XLE. Friday’s pick’s will have to wait for the Non-Farm payroll report to get a feel for the trend. I would like to see oil try for $76 and the US dollar to rest in the $82 area. What the hell, the market never does what I want it to do. 
The stock market is the biggest junkie in the world. The Fed says that we don’t need no stinkin’ quantitative easing, which should be good news, but the market quickly goes into DT’s and trembles all the way down. “But every junkie is like a setting sun.”
No QE means a strong economy, it means a recovery is in process! Oh, but it also means a strong dollar…and at the present the stock market does NOT like a strong dollar. So today, everytime the dollar shot up, the stock market, along with the oil market, moved down. And it seemed to happen about 20 times today!
Volume doubled yesterday’s totals and I think it should continue throughout the week, even though we are leading up to a holiday weekend. Too much news going on which will stir up the pot. Tonight I was waiting for China’s PMI, which has come out at 51.7, up from last months 51.2. And by morning we should have heard some GDP’s from European countries. We’ve also got ADP payroll report Wednesday morning, along with Construction Spending and oil inventories and more.
So much going on, Australia GDP up along with China PMI so futures are moving up strong also. Let’s hope it lasts until US markets open….and through the day tomorrow! 
It was just another Manic Monday, until the last hour, when indexes closed at their lows….on very low volume. It was a slow-motion crash.
We’ve got a load of economic news coming starting tomorrow: Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence and FOMC minutes. The question is, will good news or bad news make the markets move up? Or will nothing happen until Friday when the monthly employment numbers come out. Crazy market!
When everyone is bearish, that is the time to go long, a contrarian indicator. But what if all the contrarians are saying that there are too many bears out there and start writing stories about that? I found a couple stories today to read: Are Wall Street Analysts Contrary Indicators? Then followed that up with Sell Signal on 36% Profit Increase Has Analysts in Math Denial.
Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!
The news continues to suck, with GDP, consumer sentiment and speeches to confuse everyone. But, stocks still rallied. As we say, sometimes the reaction is more important than the reality.
Traders did take a quick trip down to test that 1040 S&P level. That level has been tested several times the last 3 months. We’ve also got oil moving up and bonds moving down…which should be good for stocks.
Sunday evening futures are moving up. And merger Mondays have brought good news lately, although Mondays have not been moving up much after the open. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac: August next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 13 years 
The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.
After a crazy week with sucky news, try to relax, eat, drink and be merry!
When bad is good.
How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Speech.
Stocks Surge, And Bonds Get Crushed: Here’s What You Need To Know.
Perception Versus Reality.
Ever wonder what a “prop trader” does? Wall Street Whispers: A Proprietary Problem.
Beware That New Credit-Card Offer. Have you noticed a whole bunch of credit card apps in your mail box?
I hope these definitions put a smile on your face:
Momentum Investing - The fine art of buying high and selling low.
Value Investing – The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
One of those weird days when gold, oil and the dollar, along with stocks, were up! As expected Durable Goods and the New Home sales sucked. Unexpected was the big oil inventories build-up, which sunk oil prices. But, like the last time this happened in late May, traders saw opportunity and started buying oil futures. And like it has done all year, oil led a move to the upside for stocks.
Keep an eye on oil to see which way we go stockwise. If oil continues its bravery, watch UCO USO and ERX.
Semiconductors also had some oomph in its step, most likely with the help of AAPL and INTC, but also watch XLK and SMH.
The crash for the day belongs to golfer Jim Furyk: Jim Furyk is disqualified from Barclays for missing pro-am tee time. Gee if he traveled more often he would know wbout hotel wake-up calls! 
Wow, what an an illiquid violent market today, with big bid/ask spreads. The first 30 minutes had me feeling real good about today’s market, but it quickly dwindled away. The markets closed near their lows….looking like a setup for a another drop tomorrow. The only hope is that it finds a bottom and starts a climb….turnaround Tuesday? Wobbly Wednesday? Thoroughly-ugly Thursday? F’ked-up Friday?
Tuesday we have Existing Home Sales and Wednesday is New Home Sales. Thursday brings us the usual Jobless Claims and the biggie of the week is on Friday, GDP with a smattering of Consumer Sentiment.
Now here’s a hypothesis…..traders think that home sales, unemployment and GDP are going to suck, so they started the sell off today. So if any of those reports come in just a little bit better than expected, we just may have a bottom and a take-off to the upside. Well….it is possible. 
And remember…
Hoping or Wishing or Praying = exit position immediately!
It’s time for the retailers to be reporting earnings, and many are doing it this week. But since we know retailers and consumers have been sucking wind, it should all be priced in. But, we also have PPI, housing starts and leading indicators, so looks like another news driven week coming up.
The major indicies are trapped in a sideways pattern from Thursday. You could tell from the big time chop and whipsaws while waiting until we get a breakout on either side. By the early evening action today of the futures, that breakout may be to the downside.
Japan reported a much worse than expected Q2 GDP, and futures reacted immediately down, but are recovering slowly. We’ll see what morning brings.
Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
