Archive for the 'Opinions' Category

Markets give us ‘ugly’

Published on May 18, 2012, 5:14 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

FB didn’t do much on opening day….much less save the markets! While the morning was positive in anticipation of Facebook’s IPO, the Nasdaq kept delaying the first trade, making traders skittish. That just started the waterfall. Another IPO where the hype was over-hyped. C’mon, 100 times PE? Really now!

With the combination of Facebook and OpEx, volume was the highest it’s been in a while, but still not breaking 3 million contracts in the ES.  NQ and YM, along with ES, are approaching their 200-day moving averages…from above, while the TF actually did close below its 200DMA. Not looking so good.

I can’t remember the last time we had 5 consecutive down days in an Options Expiration week, can you?

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FB! It’s Time!

Published on May 17, 2012, 6:54 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

Put buying accelerated on Thursday as doom and gloom was overtaking all traders. And it really showed into the close. Nasdaq (NQ) got bitch-slapped taking the brunt of the beating…. ES touched 1300…and the YM had its worst day since January. The VIX hasn’t been this high since last year! Was that the capitulation low? If 1300 on the ES doesn’t hold…where’s the next stop? I’m betting on this as the low. Time for a rebound.

Friday is all about Facebook. Traders and the press have been talking and speculating for weeks. They’ve set the price at $38 a share and raised a cool $16 billion…that’s with a ‘B’. It should be a big enough distraction from Greece and the Euro to maybe give us at least one positive day this week! It’s been a while since I’ve seen an OpEx week this ugly….maybe the last time Greece was such a worry.

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History tell us we’re wrong!

Published on May 14, 2012, 6:44 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Monday after Mother’s Day the Dow has been up 14 of last 17 years…. and the Monday of May expiration, which today is also, the Dow has been up 20 of last 24 years. So, history has shown us that we did wrong today! :-(

We moved lower on low volume. Maybe it was because Europe hasn’t responded to their issues, especially Greece. Gee, if you can’t form a government, how will you work through your fiscal crisis? So, do we have a Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow?

Today was one of those “as goes AAPL, so goes the markets” kind of days.

Remember, it’s options expiration week, so the ride is always a rollercoaster week. There;s some market moving reports this week as well: CPI, Rtail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Survey and the latest FOMC minutes. So buckle your belts and hold on!

And remember…. In trading, some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue!! :D

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Just Take Care Of Us

Published on May 7, 2012, 8:03 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Europeans, specifically France and Greece, have spoken and have said: “I don’t want to work, just take care of us!” Ironically, they have all found jobs with the Obama campaign! :lol:

Markets really didn’t like that news overnight as they felt around for a new low. Traders though decided not to go with popular opinion and started an up move from the US market open. After a gap down open, markets pushed upward in a sloppy kind of way, on low volume and no news. Actually the entire week looks to be light on news.

And other interesting stuff…

A nothing kind of week?

Published on May 2, 2012, 11:08 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Monday morning started off with not so great reports…Personal Income and Spending was a dud, as was Canada’s GDP, and Chicago PMI was soft, below expectations, but still expanding. Tuesday we had some relief with good ISM numbers. although the markets had a good run up during the morning, it was all given back by the close. Wednesday gave us a disappointing ADP employment number, which quickly pulled down the market. The rest of the day was just a narrow range nothing day! Now we do nothing until Friday’s Employment Report. Oh well, we don’t want to mess up this low volume, nothing kind of week, do we?

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A wimpy month close

Published on April 30, 2012, 10:25 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Monday morning started off with not so great reports…Personal Income and Spending was a dud, as was Canada’s GDP, and Chicago PMI was soft, below expectations, but still expanding.

So here we are…May…have you started your Christmas shoppimg yet? :D

Acording to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in May has the Dow up 11 of the last 14 years. So history has us looking for an up day on Tuesday. We have a few reports in the morning…Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending. Plus, many of the Feds are speaking on Tuesday. The big one, Non-Farm Payroll is Friday…previewed by the ADP on Wednesday. Let’s go for a rollercoaster ride!

Tuesday’s Gone with AAPL

Published on April 24, 2012, 8:03 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Tuesday’s Gone with AAPL. Many traders have been shorting AAPL into earnings…and the report was a blowout…crushing estimates by a good margin. AAPL closed down over $11 dollars at 4:00PM and then bang! Up $40!

For the last couple of weeks the markets have been following AAPL, as in as goes AAPL so goes the market. I think it’s a fairly good prediction that the markets will be up on Wednesday. Of course there is the Durable Goods report in the morning and then the FOMC announcement in the afternoon. Maybe we’ll just go crazy!

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Monday Blues

Published on April 23, 2012, 5:46 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Traders got bitch-slapped Monday morning as no-news was bad-news. Well we did confirm a recession in Spain, so traders bailed out of the market. The German DAX led the way this morning, but after the European close, U.S. markets recovered somewhat. The S&P (ES futures contract) closed down -12.25.

We have an FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday. But it won’t be until Wednesday that we hear what they are thinking. There’s New Home Sales on Tuesday. Besides the FOMC announcement on Wednesday there is also Durable Goods Report. And on Friday we hear about GDP.

Remember…As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. Be careful out there.

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OpEx Ride

Published on April 19, 2012, 7:09 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The ups and downs of OpEx continue throughout the week….and we finally close the week tomorrow, Friday. Earnings have been lackluster so far. The volume today was up big compared to recent days, but the bears have not taken hold of the markets…yet.

The day was sad because of  the passing of Levon Helm….here’s one of The Band‘s best… The Weight …a nice voice and a good person. RIP!!

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Do the hustle…I mean math

Published on April 5, 2012, 9:09 am in Opinions, Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

So how do you trade these numbers? Initial Claims for this week is 357,000…which is 2,000 more than the expected 355,000. Based on last week’s IC of 359,000, traders were looking for a decrease of 4,000 claims. Not much, but going in the right direction. But (there’s always a but…) last week’s claims were revised upward (aren’t they always?) to 363,000. So is the “expected” number based on published numbers (-4k) or revised numbers (-8k)?

Now then, we reduced claims by 2000 based on last week’s numbers or 6000 based on revised numbers. Last week’s published numbers are bogus. Either way, expectations were not met. we either missed the expected number by 2000 or 6000 depending on which numbers you use. Glad I took all those geometry, trigonometry and calculus courses in college! 8O

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