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Archive for the 'Charts' Category
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The news continues to suck, with GDP, consumer sentiment and speeches to confuse everyone. But, stocks still rallied. As we say, sometimes the reaction is more important than the reality.
Traders did take a quick trip down to test that 1040 S&P level. That level has been tested several times the last 3 months. We’ve also got oil moving up and bonds moving down…which should be good for stocks.
Sunday evening futures are moving up. And merger Mondays have brought good news lately, although Mondays have not been moving up much after the open. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac: August next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 13 years 
The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.
Diving right from the git-go, the morning turned out to be a wait-and-see when low would be low enough. By noontime the low was hit and the slow climb up started and continued for the rest of the day. At one point all the indexes were green, but they couldn’t hold it. The Nasdaq was able to close in the green and the Russell was nearby but closed slightly red. I was disappointed that the markets weren’t more volatile for an options expiration….volume was down from yesterday also. Can’t really decide if Friday was bearish or bullish. 
The S&P is still bouncing within this 3-month long channel.
If it’s going to obey the channel, it needs to bounce….a dead-cat or bull resumption bounce.
We’re in the summer doldrums and still have another 2 weeks to go. We’ve also had a lot of bad economic news but the market has been able to maintain itself within the channel. It still has not challenged the May, June or July lows….although it is trading below the 20- 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The semiconductors SOX had a good week, but we still need those banks BKX to show some enthusiasm. And oil sure could use a fire under its barrel.
Charts are very schizophrenic! Arguments can be made for a long and/or short position. Cash may be the position of choice, at least until the charts points one way….or the other. 
For three days in a row we have opened and closed right about the same place. This kind of trading shows we are confused and don’t know which way to go!
August is usually tricky trading because of the low volume. It’s a time to practice holding onto your money or taking a vacation.
I’m sitting a little bit long with a few January call options in XLK XLE XLF and TBT. I’m holding most of my money, but thought some limited speculative plays using options wouldn’t break my bank. Here’s to a great 200-point turnaround Tuesday! 
There are a lot of nice sharts on individual stocks out there…more than I can keep track of. The Russell 2000 looks good also. The index is catching major support at the confluence of 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Perhaps it will make a run for the June highs.
It’s all about the FED this week and I’m looking for good news….good enough to make this market run a little bit. 
Wow! Great moves in the market today! The Dow broke through the June and July highs on the first trading day of August!
The S&P is close but still needs a few points.
Now of course, volume was not that great so many will say it’s not a “real” rally, but it doesn’t matter to me…weak rally profits spend just as well as strong rally profits! 
I traded about 20 minutes in the morning and about 35 minutes in the afternoon…and it was a good profit day. Now time to look at charts while I soothe my sunburn…ouch.
It was a good week for the bulls, except for Wednesday giving us a spook. We’ve made new July highs in the indexes and are now shooting for the June highs. The Dow Jones Industrials are the closest, sitting between its 200ma and the high.
The Russell 2000 is also already above its 200ma and July highs, but looking to get to its June highs….but that is still some distance to go. 
The S&P 500 looks to be the weakest, still below its 200ma, but its June highs are also close to the 200.
Overall, the charts are bullish.
Last week we hardly had any economic data besides earnings reports. But this week the data picks up along with earnings reports.
Monday, 7/26:
10:00 – New Home Sales
Tuesday, 7/27:
09:00 – Case-Shiller House Price Index
10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 7/28:
08:30 – Durable Goods Orders
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 – Beige Book
Thursday, 7/29:
08:30 – Unemployment Claims
Friday, 7/30:
08:30 – Advance GDP Price Index
08:30 – Employment Cost Index
09:45 – Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
09:55 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
And then we’re all done with July! Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!
Sure there was good earnings reports this morning, but initial claims looked bad. European good news, on manufacturing and services index and retail sales, trumped US Initial Claims this morning and yesterday’s unusual uncertainty. And it sounds like European bank stress tests are coming in better than expected. I think the give-away on that is just what the euro has been doing today. We’ll see the conclusion on those tests tomorrow.
The S&P has made it well above the 50ma which should now act as support. A trip up to the 200ma seems plausible….at least the first attack.
Some high-powered reports for Friday: F HON IR MCD VZ, but no economic news…at least not from the US. Now Europe should be full of it…so to speak.
I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.
The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.
Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.
And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”
And people wonder how I got the name of this blog. 
This market could not make up it’s mind on what direction to go. Maybe it was just waiting for the earnings reports this evening. There must have been a lot of people waiting because nobody was trading….volume pathetic again. Options Expiration week….hours of boredom….with minutes of panic and/or excitment thrown in!
Earnings season looks like it may be just what the bulls were waiting for. AA CSX and NVLS all came in with better-than-expected results and the S&P futures were taking off before they closed at 4:15 PM EDT. And later on this evening, it looks as if they would like to continue their move up. Of course there is still 11 hours before Tuesday’s open.
Speaking of AA, it’s been going down ever since the last earnings report 3 months ago.
So does it go up for 3 months now?
It would be nice if the markets tomorrow just continue up in a nice-n-easy manner, slow but steady. What I would not like to see is a gap-n-crap in a wild opex kind of way….but, then again, it is opex week.
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
