Archive for the 'Charts' Category

Here we go again

Published on March 27, 2011, 9:46 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Two weeks ago we were talking how low can we go, but this week we’re back to… can we go higher? After breaking down through key support levels, namely the 50 day moving averages, the indexes are back above and looking for more.

S&P 500 Mar 25
Of course we’ve had a pretty strong 8 day bounce and we may take a breather. We are closing out the frist quarter of the year and starting the second quarter and a new month. Friday we have another BLS report for employment which will tell us which way the markets will go. Oh, and the earnings season is about to start all over again.

And another thing… Have you seen this CNBC “Heat Map” that they keep touting. I just don’t understand. It is red or green, and sometimes black for unchanged. It’s not what I thought a heat map should be. I always think it should be some sort of gradation….like on FinViz.

I’ll close with a joke…about getting a job at GS:

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a Donkey from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the Donkey the next day.

The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’

Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’

The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’

Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’

The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him?

Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’

The farmer said ‘You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’

Chuck said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’

Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $998.’

The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs.

Good luck and happy trading!

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Oh sh!t

Published on March 10, 2011, 10:04 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The markets gapped down and continued down without looking back. Reasons were all from overseas…China, Europe, Middle East…maybe this recovery is not looking so hot. I was caught bug-eyed and flat-footed and pretty much sta and watched. Took a few scalps on the ES for breakeven. I usually don’t trade rollover.

I expect a bounce after this big of a down move. TRIN says as much also…. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. We closed at 2.13 today. But nothing is ever 100%.

Back on March 1st I talked about the S&P going back to test its pre-mideast crisis levels…1294. Well look where we went down to…..

S&P Mar 10
Now the big question…will we bounce from the test or go on though it?

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What’s up?

Published on November 28, 2010, 11:33 am in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Now that we are done with the festival of dead birds and undone trouser buttons, it’s time for shopping! And it looked good at the malls, but the markets were scared about Euro debt and Korean war. With the big gap down I thought my few remaining long positions would be toast…but no. Indexes ground upward giving me a chance to still get a decent profit.

For the rest of the day I nibbled on SPY puts on every rally thinking when everyone got back next week the market would continue down. But, with that huge selloff at the close I was able to take 13% on half the positions. Why not….it was a real gift-horse! Still kept a few puts just in case there’s a gap-down Monday morning.

So we had a down day on a historical good day….days around holidays are always green! Even more interesting is how the S&P futures and VIX acted after the cash close.


As the S&P futures crashed after the cash close, volatility moved up!

So, what will next week bring? Was Friday’s close a premonition? We only have 2 more trading days in November and only 24 more trading days in 2010.
There should be some tax selling while volume starts to dwindle…through Chanukah, Christmas and New Years! Oh, and one more options expiration. Volatility should come into play…but isn’t that what the VIX is telling us?

Season’s Greetings and Happy Trading!

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What’s coming?

Published on November 7, 2010, 9:13 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

It was a mixed, breakeven day on Friday. Reports showed the US economy adding 151,000 to payrolls in October, which was more than expected, but the unemplyment rate remained the same. The major market indexes are at new two-year highs, but seem to me that they need to rest or pullback, and did close off their highs.

But looking at a ten-year chart of the S&P, we are about to breakout of a channel going back a decade. Can the markets get more bullish than they are now? Or is it time to come back a little?

On the other hand, oil and precious metals may be in for a ride: Abnormal Silver & Crude Oil Price Moves Should Be Investigated By The SEC. Besides the manipulation, Is Gold’s Recent Move As Bullish As It Seems?

I like this remark from Warren Buffet when he was asked his thoughts about the price of gold and its investment merit, he replied:

“You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy all — not some — but all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobil’s, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?”

That says it all!

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Dullsville to Crazy?

Published on October 31, 2010, 11:53 am in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The markets didn’t do much last week. Just look at the S&P, 5 days of dojis…it opened on Monday at 1184.74 and closed on Friday at 1183.26. Less than 1.75 points opening to closing range, although there was a 26 point high low range for the week.

You can see it on the weekly:

The weekly 200MA is the line in the sand if the S&P is going to go up!

Next week should bring lots of excitement, especially Wednesday. Election results will be known in the morning and the FOMC explains their position on Quantitative Easing 2 in the afternoon. And if that’s not enough, Friday brings us the monthly report on the Employment picture.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the First trading day in November: Dow down 4 of last 5. Dow was up 0.8% last year.

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A techno-weekend

Published on October 10, 2010, 11:19 pm in Charts, reading and Tools. Closed Tags: , , .

I spent this weekend building my new trading PC, searching the Internet for tech support and running to Best Buy to pick up a few things I missed. ;) But, by Sunday night I had Windows 7 installed on the SSD, or Tradestation, especially when backtesting strategies. I will document all I did and will put it up on the website, going through the process of why I picked the parts I incorporated into the PC….but I want to get it into the trading mix first.

I’m still not done, there’s a lot of data I need to extract from the old PC to the new, but, in the mean time, I’m trying to review the charts on my backup machine. Boy, the indexes sure look like they want to ride the bull! The S&P has been running up the 8EMA since the August lows. The rest are similar, but this whole volume thing has still got me wondering where the money is coming from….the Fed? GS? People still employed?

Here’s an idea: Americans Are Saving Too Much Money, So We Need Them Spending Again.

I guess I’ll get some sleep before trying to connect the new machine to the Internet. 8O

Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!

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Breakout!

Published on September 20, 2010, 10:01 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Well, we finally broke out of that 4-month range…summer is officially over. :D   I guess the best thing would be to pullback and test those June/August highs from above, but of course, the market never does what you “think” it should.

It’s funny how a little blurb about the recession ending over a year ago could get the markets so excited! Oil, gold and the other commodities had a big up day also.

Watch out for Housing Starts in the morning and the FOMC announcement in the afternoon. It usually takes a day or two before the markets figure out what the FOMC is saying, so watch for some shennanigans up and down.

I saw this one today: Do you know the difference between a stockbroker or a investment advisor, or a financial planner? Do you know their responisbilities to you? You don’t? Neither does most of America! U.S. Investors & The Fiduciary Standard survey.

Happy trading :!:

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I hear the Fed a’coming

Published on September 19, 2010, 10:30 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

On “normal” opex Friday’s it usually gets wild about an hour before the close and volume zooms as traders even out their accounts. But, just as the rest of the week went, volume was below average….neither humans or computers want to trade anymore!

While the markets had an up week, the S&P still has not broke through the June and August highs.

But the Nasdaq has busted through the August highs and has its sight on the June highs.

So Nasdaq may be the new leader in this game.

Commodities look to be booming this evening, gold, oil, wheat, corn…oh my! Is inflation on its way? The FOMC has a meeting this week, and we’ll find out a lot more about the housing market as well.

Be careful out there…and happy trading :!:

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Strange Brew

Published on September 14, 2010, 10:37 pm in Charts, Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Today was a strange day in the market. The S&P went down to the 200ma bounced up to the August highs and then ended where it began the day….stuck in a range.

This will give you an idea of what the charts looked like today…Strange Brew.

Oil, gold and the dollar went wacky today…the dollar dove and gold soared. This evening, the Bank of Japan began intervening in the currency markets making the dollar soar and the yen dive. Dramamine anyone? Japan Intervenes in Forex Market for First Time in 6 Years.

Looks like September options expiration week is going to be a wild one!

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Who’s Hurting?

Published on September 4, 2010, 2:49 pm in Charts and reading. Closed Tags: , .

If you’re unemployed you’re most likely a man, and a white one at that! Check out this WSJ Interactive Graph and watch the unemployment number grow, first by sector and then by gender. The charts show who has been hit the hardest!

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