So how do you trade these numbers? Initial Claims for this week is 357,000…which is 2,000 more than the expected 355,000. Based on last week’s IC of 359,000, traders were looking for a decrease of 4,000 claims. Not much, but going in the right direction. But (there’s always a but…) last week’s claims were revised upward (aren’t they always?) to 363,000. So is the “expected” number based on published numbers (-4k) or revised numbers (-8k)?
Now then, we reduced claims by 2000 based on last week’s numbers or 6000 based on revised numbers. Last week’s published numbers are bogus. Either way, expectations were not met. we either missed the expected number by 2000 or 6000 depending on which numbers you use. Glad I took all those geometry, trigonometry and calculus courses in college!
- New Math Will Drive a U.S. Manufacturing Comeback (blogs.hbr.org)
- The problem of really big numbers (techrepublic.com)