Monthly Archive for August, 2011

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Wipeout?

Published on August 15, 2011, 8:34 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Three days in the green…we haven’t seen that since June. Well if you were a put surfer, it looks like the markets are here to WipeOut all those puts that were bought over the past 2 weeks! …in options expiration week no less. Expect more up and down to clear out calls as well as puts :!:

The last three days have given us the biggest three day percentage gain for the Dow since March of 2009. Today was the lowest volume in 2 and a half weeks…what a change of pace. But if we can grind up slow but sure, well, I’ll take it!

“They say the price of gas could soon be under $3 a gallon. Do you know what that means? You can now afford to drive by the house you used to live in, go by the job you used to have, and go see the bank where you used to have money.” — Jay Leno

Weekend Reading 8/13/11

Published on August 13, 2011, 9:28 am in Opinions and reading. Closed

“We’ve always been told our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay for our reckless spending. Now WE have to pay?!” — Jimmy Kimmel

Uh oh, double-dip: Recession 2.0 would hurt worse.

High-speed predators pounce on volatility. Here’s the PDF file referenced in the article: The Dark Side of Trading.

Stealth QE3 Is Upon Us, how Ben did it and what it means.

“I wish I’d been omniscient and seen the crisis coming.” –Ben Bernanke

Just How Bad Economy Really Is. And how bad is that?

It’s been a rough 2 weeks! But don’t make excuses: Searching for a Source of Blame. Get those charts out!

The cause of all our problems: Europe on the Brink: Does Their Fall Ensure Our Recession?

Obamacare update: Court strikes down Obama health insurance mandate.

“Later this month President Obama will embark on a bus tour through the Midwest that will focus on jobs. Mainly him trying to keep his.” — Jay Leno

Quiet Friday of a wild week

Published on August 12, 2011, 8:35 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

We had a follow-thru day on the lightest volume in 2 weeks. Been a long time since we’ve seen that. Doesn’t say much though. Retail sales were good, but U of M Consumer Sentiment took a dive…but no one cared. The Dow “only” had a 200-point range…how boring! Looks like the bulls and the bears are tired.

Now it’s OpEx week. Will It Go Round In Circles just like last week? And along with OpEx there’s a lot of economic reports all week long: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, PPI, CPI, Philly Fed Survey, Existing Home Sales. We just may go round in circles.

C’mon markets, Don’t Let Me Down!

Let’s try it again

Published on August 11, 2011, 11:31 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

We recovered everything we lost on Wednesday, plus a little bit more. During the day we even went higher than Tuesday’s high and close. There’s only one thing missing…a follow-through day! We haven’t strung together 2 up days in a row since early July.

It looked scary in the premarket as again trouble in Europe rattled traders. But rumors and facts started growing throughout the day that got traders juiced…although it was the lowest volume day of the week. But it also was the 4th day of 500+ range in the Dow…WTF?

The banks, after getting bitch-slapped yesterday, were the frontrunners to the upside today. Gold took a big dive as did U.S. Treasuries…and thus, interest rates via TBT went up.

Let’s see if we can string 2 in a row!

“The stock market had its biggest one-day drop since 2008. Remember how the experts said we had to raise the debt ceiling or the market would crash? Well, they were half right.” — Jimmy Kimmel

Crash continues

Published on August 10, 2011, 10:57 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

As has happened the last three times the markets have had a green day, the following day was a big downer…no follow through. Volume was a “meager” 4.8 million, a let down after 3 days of over 6 million contracts traded. TRIN though was at an extreme 5.13 … looking for a bounce on Thursday or we’re in real trouble.

Because of SocGen’s problems and the Eurozone going down the tubes, the entire financial sector was crap. Stocks, and associated call options, such as C BAC MS GS, all withered in the bear stampede.

VIX is still elevated and I’m sitting on my hands just watching 987 tick charts and playing in my demo accounts. Sure, the pressure is off and I do great, but playing the charts and watching what happens is good practice….and you don’t lose money!

“By the way, the ratings agency is Standard & Poor’s. Who’s going to listen to a company whose name translates to Average & Below Average?” — Jon Stewart

Welcome back…

Published on August 9, 2011, 10:25 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

So is QE3 coming or not? Maybe not, but the “Bernanke put” is back! A song comes to mind… Welcome Back My Friends to the Show that Never Ends. We regained two-thirds of what we lost yesterday, so that’s nice….but why? Stealth QE3 Is Upon Us, how Ben did it and what it means.

It was definitely a rollercoaster day as indexes moved in both directions all day long. It took about an hour to go from the low of the session to the high, closing near the highs…and the futures continued to go up after the cash close. Boy was that last half hour ever exciting!!

Volume was the highest in the last 3 days and the VIX returned about half what it gained yesterday. Some wild and crazy action for the last 2+ weeks…it’s getting frustrating. :!:

Unexpected?

Published on August 8, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

I thought the bounce would start sometime by the close, but you can’t always get what you want! And the selling in the ES futures continued into the evening. ES has sunk below 1100 last time I looked.

I did nibble on some TBT calls at a time I thought they may have bottomed, but, no such luck. I’m still sitting in them, underwater. So you can say I had a bad day.

It was an incredible day….The VIX advanced 50%, and although I was looking to short the VIX, I sat on my hands. SPY down 7.5%, yes in one day. The Russell was down almost 9% and the “winner” today was the Dow, down “only” 5.5%.

Some sector ETFs really got bruised: FAS the 3X financial bull ETF was down 30%, so the financial XLF was down over 10%. But Bank of America, BAC was down 22%…ouch! Oil and technology weren’t pretty at all.

So is it time for Turnaround Tuesday? China has some announcements overnight and those European PIIGS are still a pain in the ass. And let’s not forget, it’s time for FOMC meeting and announcement. Gee, what are the chances of a rate hike on Tuesday? :roll:

This should be interesting…

Published on August 7, 2011, 8:32 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

After a 400 point range in the Dow, it ended up only 60 points. All the other indexes closed in the red. WTF?

Friday looked like massive margin calls and forced liquidations after the big run down on Thursday. Rumors began to circulate during the day that S&P was going to do what it finally did after hours…downgrade US debt. If the S&P knocked down the US debt, don’t they also knock down the holders of that debt?

Here’s the remaining countries with a triple A rating: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. How far can they go with having “superior” debt? Buffett Says Cutting U.S. Rating Was Mistake, Sees No Recession.

The first reaction I had (as if anyone cared) is pass off all the US “peace-keeping” duties to these countries and let them take care of “us.” And quit “loaning” money to other countries. And quit giving money to people that haven’t put any money into the pot (read as welfare) …freeloaders! Sorry, I digress.

Here’s the S&P Ratings Report http://stk.ly/nzkwsU. Interesting reading.

Ok, back to trading. I’m definitely going to tread lightly. Futures this evening gapped down big…ES down 35 points, Dow down 325 pts. They have recovered about a third since the 6PM open. I’ve put bonds and the VIX on my short list via TBT calls and VIX puts. The metals may be a good short also via DZZ and ZSL, but I’ll put them in second place because I’ve been burned by them before.

Although only the Globex is open, Asia markets should open soon…and so far, it’s a pretty tame open for the past 2 hours. Maybe this was all baked in the previous two weeks?

Good luck on Monday and thanks for reading.

P.S. Just remember, if the Dow falls more than 30 percent (3600 pts), the market will close! Don’t think we get there, but keep it in mind?

Weekend Reading 8/6/11

Published on August 6, 2011, 9:28 am in Opinions and reading. Closed

“According to a recent survey, kids are receiving an average of 40 cents less from the tooth fairy. That’s right, the economy is so bad that even make-believe people are feeling the pinch.” — Conan O’Brien

Our Government at Work! Oh sorry, must be a bad link :-)

Rating agencies suck! Furious Behind The Scenes War Going On Over Threat To Remove US AAA Rating! Oh, by the way, we’re not very good at math! UPDATE: S&P Downgrades US To AA+, Outlook Negative – Full Text. And one more: Market to Force Hand of Central Banks.

Always borrow money from a pessimist. He won’t expect it back. :-)

Do we make too much of the 200-day moving average? Stocks’ drop through moving averages may say sell and Market’s major trend now down.

Geek alert!…The Evolution of Computer Programming Languages..a learning pictorial of what runs our life.

Well, which is it….inflation, deflation or stagnation? Inflation worries pose bar to QE3.

With the current economy, the American people are finding themselves between “Barack and a hard place.”

Here’s what I’m doing this weekend: Apes Will Rise at Box Offices This Weekend.

Was your week like this? E-Trade Baby Loses Everything.

Obama-Care? Greece’s healthcare system is on the brink of catastrophe.

“A man jumped the White House fence, but after a brief chase, the Secret Service was able to talk President Obama into coming back and finishing his term.” — Conan O’Brien

And one more thing….Overnight shipping available! :!:

Historic Bullsh!t

Published on August 4, 2011, 9:03 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Yes it was the worse day for the markets since December 2008! Just look at some of those numbers for just the 4 days of this week: Energy and Transportation down 10%; Russell down 9%; Banks down 8%; Semis down 7%…just ugly! Get a perspective here at A look at the Dow’s worst drops since 1900.

The VIX finally perked up with a 35% pop today and ES volume was enormous, relatively speaking with over 5 million ES contracts traded. Haven’t seen that since…well I don’t know when…but it’s been a long time!

And did you see the NYSE Advance/Decline volume? …-84:1 WOW! I guess traders aren’t going on vacation…they’re lurking!!