Monthly Archive for May, 2011

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Wasn’t that nice!

Published on May 18, 2011, 9:27 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Although I enjoyed the move up today, I’m a bit worried about the much lower volume than Monday and Tuesday. It tells me that there are more sellers than buyers out there!

But, the 50 day simple moving average held on yesterday and today to show solid support.
S&P May 18, 2011
If it breaks we may be in for a swoosh down.

We’ve got some news from Great Britian overnight, specifically Retail Sales…and Thursday morning there’s a lot of news like Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Survey and Leading Indicators. Futures are quiet, hovering around breakeven. Let’s look out for pinning of major stocks and indexes starting tomorrow and ending Friday. Let’s see how this plays out. Good Luck!

Are we done yet?

Published on May 17, 2011, 10:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Well, the markets continued their move down today. The eco reports weren’t that great along with some lousy earnings reports. But, there’s always a but, buyers returned in the afternoon, whith the markets closing well of their lows. The Nasdaq Composite actually closed in the green and the SPX almost made it.

And now the futures are also showing some perkiness…matching early returns in the Asian markets!

I think I’ll grab a few bucks from oil and S&P futures before going to bed. Happy trading!

Did you catch the volatility?

Published on May 16, 2011, 9:44 pm in Trading. Closed

I thought we’d see some volatility, but this got a little crazy. The morning started like we would recover and move up. But we started a move down and we never stopped. We even kept moving down after the cash close. Remember…it is options expiration week.

So now I’m looking for a “turnaround tuesday.” Will it or won’t it? TBT and XLF still siting in nowhere land….waiting for a stop, but not yet. I hate waiting to lose.

Housing starts and Industrial Production on Tuesday. Yes, it will still be crazy,…like any OpEx.

Which way do we go?

Published on May 15, 2011, 9:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Over the last 10 days, 4 have been up and 6 down and the net change has been small, about 33 points in the S&P, or about 2%. We closed below a so-called support area of 1340 and another 2% will get us close to 1300. Futures are moving to the downside Sunday evening, along with early Asian markets.

Sure it’s long way to Monday morning, but the biggest moves in futures have been during the overnight lately, so I keep tabs on that, but it doesn’t always predict what will happen in the morning. I do like to trade the Globex because it’s slower than the US cash hours and I can practice futures trading with less emotion!

My TBT and XLF positions may be stopping out soon if interest rates and the banks don’t start moving up soon. Options expiration week should stir things up pretty good. We also have a lot of housing data this week along with FOMC meeting minutes. Volatility is always good for traders and am looking forward to it. Happy trading!

“I hear that you dropped some money on Wall Street. Were you a bull or a bear?”
“Neither, just a plain simple ass.”

Weekend Reading 5/14/11

Published on May 14, 2011, 8:10 am in reading. Closed

Here’s the Top 10 News Items of the week.

Goldman Turns “Tactically” Neutral On Stocks, Believes S&P Not Pricing In “Downshift In Macro Picture”, Proposes “Zero Cost Cross-Asset” Hedge For SPX Drop.

A detailed analysis of the BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll Headline Number Looks Good, Beneath the Surface, Awful.

Here’s Paul Ryan’s Plan To Save America From Bankruptcy.

Foreclosures Continue To Trend Down. Let’s not start rejoicing yet!

Let’s hope it doesn’t happen here. The ECB’s Three Mistakes in the Greek Debt Crisis.

Did you notice YHOO on Friday? Forget It, Shareholders–It’s China.

A big ponzi scheme? The End of QEII: It’s Time to Make the Donuts.

Double Bottom: The shape one’s backside takes from sitting at a trading desk too long.

Was that wild enough?

Published on May 12, 2011, 8:22 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Yesterday I said we should end the week in a wild way…I guess I just didn’t know how wild! After gapping down and moving down hard the first 30 minutes, the markets started reversing and really took off after the European bourses closed. Key reversal day?

At first I was really disappointed, and disillusioned, that my USO moved down hard also. First reaction was to bail, but it was a small position. So… I took a chance and doubled-down. It brought my average cost down and was quickly in the money after the reversal. I cashed out in the afternoon. Sure wish they all worked out that way. ;)

I also added some TBT Jan 35 calls figuring that rates have to go up somethime in the next 7 months! We’ve got some European GDP reports overnight before the US CPI and Consumer Sentiment. Go TBT!

And don’t forget….Friday the 13th!

Deja Vu again

Published on May 11, 2011, 9:54 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Markets were under water oil all day! It was last Thursday all over again. Commodities, all of them, took another bashing all because the US Dollar looks like it may have hit bottom…or at least bouncing strong.

Today I cashed out the short hedges I made yesterday via VIX DUG and IWM. Actually they became profits rather than hedges. I also nibbled on some USO thinking oil will bounce.

Tomorrow and Friday will bring some inflation news via the PPI and CPI, along with Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment. This week looks to end in a wild way. I’m holding some TBT in anticipation of inflation.

Have you noticed how all the down days have a higher volume? Except for a couple hours this morning, it was still a fairly boring day. Maybe with all the eco news coming up we can get some action going. See you in the markets. :mrgreen:

Two economists are walking down the street. One sees a dollar lying on the sidewalk, and says so.
“Obviously not,” says the other. “If there were, someone would have picked it up!”

Another slow one…

Published on May 10, 2011, 9:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Not much activity on low volume, but markets held on to their gains on Tuesday. The big news comes after the markets close with DIS showing disappointing earnings and the rare earth stocks weakening after MCP also had a bad report. And later tonight we hear about the Chinese economy with CPI PPI and retail sales, among other chinese news.

I said earlier today I started hedging my bets with a few short positions via IWM puts and VIX calls. A gap up is not out of the question, but it may be an exhaustion gap or popping of stops…..or the next leg of the bull market :)

Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!

Is the bull back?

Published on May 10, 2011, 1:11 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

After an ugly week, the markets, especially the commodities, started back up. Sure it was low volume, but isn’t that a standard Monday?

Tuesday though is still weak volume, and I started to hedge some of my longs with IWM puts, VIX calls and DUG….not a full load, just some bits and pieces. Tight stops on everything.

The Pessimist sees the glass as half empty. The Optimist sees the glass half full. The Day Trader just tops off his beer…

Weekend Reading 5/7/11

Published on May 7, 2011, 8:08 am in reading. Closed Tags: .

“In a stunning flip-flop, the White House says it will not release the photo of bin Laden. Now we have to wait for Donald Trump to force them to release it.”

You’ve read about how I complain about the low volume. Well…. Think Volumes Are Low Now? Wait Till Citi Dries Up.

You gotta start someplace: 10 rules for rookie day traders.

And more stuff to know: Why Amateurs Should Invest in Common Stocks.

And here’s how it all ends: 93-year old still trading.

Silver, gold, oil and more… Commodity Prices Plunge.

Just think if the DOJ shut down the stock market! Busted!

What’s your trading plan? They Say – You Cannot Time The Stock Market.

Remember the flash: The Crash That Never Was, and this too: The May 6, 2010 market error.

Republicans start worrying… Obama’s Big Week.

Watch Donald Trump get lambasted at the White House Correspondents Dinner 2011. He didn’t look very happy.

The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.