Monthly Archive for March, 2011

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Weekend Reading 3/19/11

Published on March 19, 2011, 8:59 am in reading. Closed Tags: .

“The situation is deteriorating in Libya and Japan and the stock market is collapsing worldwide. President Obama finally took decisive action. He named Duke, Kansas, Ohio State and Pittsburgh as his Final Four.” — Jay Leno

Think like a fish: Why messaging traders are like scared fish.

The Big Market Worry: Investor Overreaction.

I gotta pee….Full Bladder, Better Decisions? Controlling Your Bladder Decreases Impulsive Choices.

Inflation of deflation, neither can be very good. Why inflation hurts more than it did 30 years ago.

There’s no infaltion, unless of course you travel and eat. Economic Fears Spike as Gas, Food Prices Rise.

They’re baaack!! Bank Dividends Are Here! Here’s the List.

Next week: Week Ahead: Markets Grapple With Uncertainty.

“Due to the recession, there are now 15,000 fewer lawyers in the U.S. No one ever talks about the good things that come from a recession.” — Jay Leno

Jobs, jobs, jobs

Published on March 17, 2011, 8:48 pm in Trading. Closed

Jobs reports Thursday morning were encouraging….And like I said this morning, the markets went for the green. They didn’t close at the highs, but not too far from it. Although it was a bullish day, it did not feel like a very bullish day…and I’m concerned that we may not follow through tomorrow. Happy St Patrick's Day!Remember this IS options expiration week…and not just any OpEx day, but a quadruple options expiration day, so futures cash out at the open tomorrow. Long options bought yesterday were cashed out for a profit, thank you very much!

It’s early Thursday evening and futures are bouncing off their lows all because of BOJ intervention. Have to see how this works overnight.

Going out for some green beer. Happy St. Patty’s Day!

Top o’ the mornin’

Published on March 17, 2011, 8:16 am in Trading. Closed

Looks like the markets will be going for the green this morning. Does this make the S&P Irish?

But we know that the markets act like drunken Irishmen at times, so stay alert and sober until we know what’s happening. Today may be a day to tie one on!

Happy Trading and Good Luck!

News-driven

Published on March 16, 2011, 9:30 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Technical analysis didn’t matter much today…it was an unbelievably news-driven day….difficult day to trade. The VIX was up 30% during the day, topping 31.28 which we haven’t seen since last summer.

We also had the highest TRIN close this year at 3.10 and way oversold. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. It’s worked the last several times it closed above 2. In anticipation, I entered some QQQQ calls.

We have the biggest economic news day of the week on Thursday with Jobless Claims, CPI, Industrial Production, Leading Indicators andPhilly Fed report…..and any news report that has the word “nuclear” in it!

“When you’re up to your ass in alligators, it is hard to remember that your original intention is to drain the swamp”

Beware the Ides of March

Published on March 15, 2011, 8:39 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Caeser was told many years ago to “Beware the Ides of March!” I believe many traders woke up with a knife in their backs….but buying was the thing to do. I bought calls in IWM, C, and F which got green real fast.

Futures are looking good so far. Nikkei should pop today after that over-reaction last night….and others should follow.

Looking for a gap up on Wednesday, but not too sure it will hold. May cash out the longs and just watch to see what happens. Not looking to short, but may wait for a better entry on longs.

Tricky!

Published on March 14, 2011, 9:07 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Well a fade would have been good…but only if you waited until the afternoon! Markets were very emotional, choppy, and wild….but nice to trade, no, to scalp. Any trade I made today was for less than 2 minutes. I was grabbing 3 to 4 ticks in the ES e-mini.

While markets recovered in the sfternoon, futures are now testing the Monday session lows….plenty of time to break lower, or maybe break to the upside. We’ll see by morning.

Here’s an FYI as we wait for March 17th:

Bishop Patrick, St. Patrick, passed away in Saul, Ireland on March 17th, 461 AD. St Patrick’s Day has been celebrated in his honor since his passing.

On March 17th, 1762 in New York City, St. Patrick’s Day was celebrated with the first St Patrick’s Day parade up Fifth Avenue and has been a tradition ever since.

Meltdown?

Published on March 14, 2011, 9:18 am in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Sentiment might think that we should see a market meltdown because of all the bad news from Japan, and let’s not forget the Middle East. But, the market has a good record of absorbing bad news fairly quickly.

Also, some companies may see a bit of a benefit: autos, semiconductors, electronics….those industries/companies that are outside of Japan. They will also need a lot of resources to rebuild: construction, lumber, oil.

This morning looks like a gap down. We’ll have to see if we’ll fade the gap. I am 55% cash, 20% short and 25% long. Remeber, cash is a position. Better to be out wishing you were in, rather than being in wishing you were out!

Remember to pray for Japan, its people and their rescuers.

Weekend Reading 3/12/11

Published on March 12, 2011, 8:32 am in Opinions and reading. Closed

Do or do not…there is no try. —Yoda

Slip slidin’ away…. The 2011 oil shock.

Print and post on your desk. Nine Simple Rules for Trading Stocks Online.

Remember in the ’80s when we thought Japan was going to buy America? Korea, China funds to move billions into overseas, alts investments.

Birthday party….. Birinyi Buying as Biggest Bull Market Since ’55 Hits Third Year.

More oil stuff…. Defending crude oil speculators.

Top signal? Two years after market low, the little guy is back.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda! What if you had bought AAPL stock instead of Apple products?

If you aspire to write….think Kindle! This 26-Year-Old Is Making Millions Cutting Out Traditional Publishers With Amazon Kindle

“Dear IRS: I’m sending you this money because I cheated on my income tax and my conscience has been bothering me. If it doesn’t stop, I’ll send you the rest.” — Guilty Tax Payer

Oh sh!t

Published on March 10, 2011, 10:04 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The markets gapped down and continued down without looking back. Reasons were all from overseas…China, Europe, Middle East…maybe this recovery is not looking so hot. I was caught bug-eyed and flat-footed and pretty much sta and watched. Took a few scalps on the ES for breakeven. I usually don’t trade rollover.

I expect a bounce after this big of a down move. TRIN says as much also…. TRIN close over 2.0 results in bounce next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in trouble. We closed at 2.13 today. But nothing is ever 100%.

Back on March 1st I talked about the S&P going back to test its pre-mideast crisis levels…1294. Well look where we went down to…..

S&P Mar 10
Now the big question…will we bounce from the test or go on though it?

Rollover

Published on March 9, 2011, 9:21 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

The morning had some nice volatility for trading, but by lunchtime it was a snoozer. Still had the opportunity to cash out of some shorts. On balance, I am about 20% short and 40% long…the rest in cash.

The market held up well today, putting in a narrow-range day. Trading the ES futures was interesting in the morning but settled into that narrow range after the first couple hours.

Remember that the indexes rollover from the March contract to the June contract on Thursday. Trading volume should progressively move to the June contract throughout the day, but you can keep trading the March until next week.

What’s the difference between a broker & a trader? Brokers work to build relationships, traders just want to get laid!