Monthly Archive for March, 2011

Here comes the big one…

Published on March 31, 2011, 10:14 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

So Jobless Claims were higher than last week’s number….BUT, they revised last week’s number higher, so this week’s number is lower!!? That’s government accounting for you!

Then, the not-so-good Factory Orders report came out, the markets popped! WTF? They did tame down and end with a narrow range day for all the indexes. And again, a very, very low volume day. Where have all the traders gone? Must be computer issues in the server room.

Can’t wait to see the shennanigans in Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll. Hope it’s more exciting than today’s snoozer :!:

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Will good news be bad news?

Published on March 30, 2011, 9:20 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Bad news has had no effect on the market…except for moving up. So are traders waiting for good news to send this thing tumbling? We’ve had bad consumer confidence, European countries downgraded, and horrible housing reports! Still the markets move up. Maybe a great Jobless claims number or BLS report will make traders think?

Maybe it doesn’t matter either way, not too many traders around. SPY volume was at -20% below the daily average and ES contract volume was 1.4 million…one of the lowest volume days of the year!

Tomorrow is the last trading day of March and the 1st quarter. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the last trading day of March, the Dow has been down 11 of the last 16 years. On the other hand, the Russell 2000 has been up 12 of the last 16 years. That gives us a lot of direction, huh?

Now the first trading day of April, which is Friday, the Dow has been up 13 of the last 16 years. I’m a little hesitant to add to my longs, but bought some hedges, as in a few SDS calls and SPY puts…short term holds just in case.

“Two passenger planes landed in Washington, D.C. with no assistance from a sleeping air traffic controller. Luckily, the pilots were too drunk to notice.” — Jay Leno

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Plop, pop, oh what a relief

Published on March 29, 2011, 9:53 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Even with bearish economic reports on consumer confidence and housing, the bulls brushed off their pootie, realigned themselves and marched up the charts!

And look at that VIX:

VIX Mar 30 2011

Except for that pop up 2 weeks ago it’s been in a channel forever. Last Thursday Friday and Monday formed a nice bullish Morningstar candle pattern, but it needed confirmation today…which fizzled quickly! The VIX remains oversold and looking for a way up the chart.

Job numbers start coming out tomorrow with the ADP and Challenger reports, Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS on Friday. Now we’ll see just what kind of job issues we had in March….could spring us to new highs or continue that correction we started last week. Oh what fun we’re having!

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Were the markets open today?

Published on March 28, 2011, 10:31 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

After the nice morning opening pop, it was downhill…in price and volume. What ugly volume for this Monday. SPY volume was 36% below its daily average and the ES futures contracts traded only 1.27 million contracts all day….I’m usually looking for that many by noon!

On the other hand, the bears had all the opporunity in the world to muster their ranks, but it was a no show. Sure we had a selloff into the close, sure we closed red after a green open, but still, what a lackluster showing for all traders.

Here’s a funny quote from Ben Bernanke made in February 2006:

“Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise.”

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Here we go again

Published on March 27, 2011, 9:46 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Two weeks ago we were talking how low can we go, but this week we’re back to… can we go higher? After breaking down through key support levels, namely the 50 day moving averages, the indexes are back above and looking for more.

S&P 500 Mar 25
Of course we’ve had a pretty strong 8 day bounce and we may take a breather. We are closing out the frist quarter of the year and starting the second quarter and a new month. Friday we have another BLS report for employment which will tell us which way the markets will go. Oh, and the earnings season is about to start all over again.

And another thing… Have you seen this CNBC “Heat Map” that they keep touting. I just don’t understand. It is red or green, and sometimes black for unchanged. It’s not what I thought a heat map should be. I always think it should be some sort of gradation….like on FinViz.

I’ll close with a joke…about getting a job at GS:

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a Donkey from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the Donkey the next day.

The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’

Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’

The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’

Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’

The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him?

Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’

The farmer said ‘You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’

Chuck said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’

Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made a profit of $998.’

The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Chuck now works for Goldman Sachs.

Good luck and happy trading!

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Weekend Reading 3/26/11

Published on March 26, 2011, 7:19 am in reading. Closed Tags: .

Did you ever notice: When you put the two words “The” and “IRS” together, they spell “THEIRS”?

Rich vs Poor: 14 Funny Statistics And 14 Not So Funny Statistics About This “Economic Recovery”.

Hope you’ve got your new car already: Japan Quake May Cut Global Auto Output by About 30%, IHS Says.

Is the market is becoming less volatile on pullbacks? Not All Black Swans are Black Swans.

Can’t remember the last time I actually mailed a letter: U.S. Postal Service Cutting 7,500 Jobs, Closing 7 Offices.

So what does he really think? Charles Plosser Speaks On The Fed’s “Exit”.

It was a week for techs: IT earnings boost market confidence

Doesn’t he talk too much already? Fed to Take a Step Out From Behind the Veil.

Jobs, jobs, jobs: Week Ahead: Markets Turn Focus Back to Economy and Jobs.

COMMISSION: The only reliable way to make money on the stock market.

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Nice job bulls!

Published on March 24, 2011, 9:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

I thought that Durable Goods number was going to squash all my bullish hopes….but no! Jobless Claims tempered the bear surge along with good earnings reports from RHT MU and CAG. This could be the start of a beautiful friendship :mrgreen:

VIX is way back into the teens again and volume continues to be mediocre….but at least those traders have no fear.

Indexes look way overbought so I’m looking for some selling going into the weekend. Besides, who wants to hold stocks over the weekend?

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Nice rally off the lows

Published on March 23, 2011, 10:35 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The bears came running out of the gate looking to do some damage. New Home Sales gave them fodder. I panicked and sold my QQQ calls when they dove down. But, if I hadn’t panicked I would have had a much larger profit…I walked away able to cover commissions and a cup of coffee. :-(

By the afternoon the indexes had all turned green and kept pushing for new daily highs for the rest of the day. They backed off a bit at the close, but ended completely different then they started. Low volume was the only consistency.

Jobless claims on Thursday may give some fodder to the bears…or maybe the bulls. If we have a continuation day up with higher volume, we may be on our way to another bull run. I’m still treading lightly with 70% cash and 30% long in C F TBT and XLF.

Happy Trading :!:

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Snoozer

Published on March 22, 2011, 8:55 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Not much happened today….a very narrow-range day. Indexes closed very near unchanged. Oh well, sometimes you just have to rest.

Porsche recently reported that sales increased by 29 percent during 2010. Even Porsche jokes are coming back into style….

Question: Why did the blonde buy a police car?

Answer: She saw “911” on the back and thought it was a Porsche.

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Merger Monday!

Published on March 21, 2011, 9:29 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Even though Japan is still a disaster area and the Mideast is still in turmoil, merger mania took centerstage today….T acquires T-Mobile and SCHW goes for OPXS, 2 pretty big mergers.

Even though Japan is still a disaster area and the Mideast is still in turmoil, merger mania took centerstage today….T acquires T-Mobile and SCHW goes for OPXS, 2 pretty big mergers.

Markets closed off the highs but did keep most of the morning move up. Cashed out on IWM and QQQQ calls, and will now wait and see what happens. I do have some calls in C and F….and looking to get some TBT.

Looking for a down move going into Friday’s GDP report, but looking at that as an opportunity to load up on long positions.

So far this evening, futures are moving down but would like to see a gap up in the morning. We’ll see how the rest of the world sees our move on Monday. Good luck and happy trading.

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