Trading thoughts, ideas, tips, musings, and pontifications. . .not necessarily in that order.
Lots of “UP” reports today….Leading Economic Indicators – UP; Jobless Claims – UP; Inflation – UP! Of course, 2 out of 3 of those up’s are bad, jobless and inflation. But what does this market do? Follow them up. Oh yeah, on low volume… SPY was 35% below its 6 month average daily volume…and that average keeps going down! Duh!
Same old shit, different day. I’m getting tired of seeing the same thing every day….and writing about it. But then again, the market has a one-track mind of its own.
Did the markets move up with all the good news today? Let’s see…inflation in the U.S. with the PPI report today. Will it leak into the CPI? We’ll see on Thursday. Or how about all those Middle East protests? Or maybe Ivory Coast rush to withdraw bank cash? A good old-fashioned bank run….all good news to take markets higher! Yep, that’ll do it. 
So tomorrow the market will really run with the Steve Jobs health rumors….AAPL took a dump afterhours. Or maybe the CPI will show inflation? Don’t forget we get Jobless Claims also. And many of the Fed governors are speaking on Thursday.
I’m a little less short now since several of my SPY put options and SDS call options got stopped out. Still have some, but not as many.
And let’s not forget it’s Options Expiration Week! According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, February Expiration Day, Dow Down 7 of last 11. But this OpEx is also the Day before President’s Day Weekend, which finds the S&P down 16 of last 19. We live in interesting times!
No exciting news today….so the market wasn’t either. But, don’t short a dull market. The markets came up off their lows near the end of the day and the future markets continued the up move in early trading after hours.
Also another low volume day, although the volume was higher on the down moves than on the up moves. Wish I could figure this out.
ES and TF hit new highs this evening. YM still lagging. Could be an interesting night as the ES tests a 100% move from the March 2009 lows…all in just 2 years! (666.79 x 2 = 1333.58)
Just amazing….there are no bears to be found….just drunken bulls at a toga party. What will cause this market to correct…or reverse? Scandal, geopolitical, inflation, war? Oh, wait a second….those are all here already!
I can’t ever remember the US market jumping so much on a foreign event. Remember when then President Carter was so happy that the people of Iran got rid of the Shah of Iran? We know how that turned out. Will Egypt be similar? Only time will tell.
The markets are getting close to their numbers before the Bear Stern collapse, but employment numbers nor housing numbers are even close! So with unemployment insurance running out, 401Ks drying up, and mortgages being abandoned, how are companies going to continue to make money?
For the past five months the markets have been exuberant. Check out this chart to see all the gap up opens that need to be filled…eventually.
On the few down days the market has had, the trading volume was decent and even above average. But all this clawing up has been on below average volume. Low volume is not the friend of short-term traders.
This morning futures are down slightly, while mideast tensions rise on higher food prices and higher unemployment. When will the U.S. see similar congregations in our streets?
Oh No! Not again! European Officials Recommend 4th Bailout for Greece
Got job? 10 Reasons Why It Has Become So Difficult To Find A Job In America Today.
Hot, cold, rain or snow? 10 Ways Weather Is Wreaking Havoc On The Global Economy.
Here’s a bit of history…. Top 10 Business Scandals and Ponzies in the United States.
Don’t eat, don’t drive. Inflation Is So Much Worse Than We’re Told.
It may be tough to beat the 157 banks shut down last year. Regulators shut small Fla., Mich., Wis. banks. The economy must be better!
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” — Albert Einstein
We had a great bear start to the day with the markets heading down fast from the get-go. But, the HoseMe Mubarack announcement reversed the sentiment. As it turns out, by the end of the day, all HoseMe said was, “Fuck you Egypt!” I await to see what happens, but I don’t think it will be good.
Opposition Leader Mohammed ElBaradei on Twitter:
‘Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now’
Many stocks actually made new all time highs today….BIDU was one. E-mini futures were pretty wild today going up and down…volatility was great for trading in both directions. AAPL went crazy on rumors.
“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” -– William O’Neil
So we had a negative A/D line, a negative A/D volume, negative S&P, RUT and Nasdaq, all with a positive Dow. Is that a divergence or what? Irrational exhuberance…big time! If you’re a candlestick watcher…Hanging Man galore!
CSCO and ATVI should help bring the indexes down on Thursday, at least the Nasdaq for sure. Other bad reactions include AKAM, ALL, AMKR, TQNT, TEX. Remember, it’s not the reports or the news that matter….it’s the reaction.
But, there’s always a but, futures at the moment are up, even though Asian markets are down. Crazy?
“You’re already starting to see some unrest in some countries as prices go higher. It’s going to cause a lot more social unrest as prices go higher around the world.You will see some governments topple. Is it the end of the world? I don’t think so. It wasn’t in the 70s. But there will be more political instability everywhere.” – Jim Rogers
Credit card debt grew in December for first time since 2008. But why? Are people really spending to buy more stuff…or are they using credit cards to pay monthly bills?
VXX continues to make new lows since inception…indexes are making new highs. Does “irrational exhuberance” come to mind? Are we really that much better than before the recession/depression started? If so, why are so many people looking for work? And why is gas and food costing more?
SPY volume was 43% below the average daily volume…S&P e-mini futures volume was low also. The markets are going higher and higher each day on lower and lower volume. WTF?
So I shorted the Dow via DIA puts…just so I can play. Besides using some of my mad money, I’m staying out.
The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith
Stocks gapped up in the morning and held those gains all day. Lots of good news via the M&A market, although volume was low. SPY volume was 35% below average daily volume. The VIX was up, which is a bit divergent since the markets were up also.
A slow week for economic data and earnings reports are thinning out…although we have CSCO later this week. Banks were strong today. The US dollar was a yo-yo.
Taking it slow and easy, watching charts and repeating to myself, “I don’t have to trade, I don’t have to trade!” 
“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.” –Jesse Livermore
| INDU | 0.00 | |||||||
| NASDAQ | 2778.79 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1295.22 | |||||||
| ^RUT | 747.21 | |||||||
| QID | 36.77 | |||||||
| QQQ | 60.81 | |||||||
| QLD | 47.97 | |||||||
| TZA | 23.3101 | |||||||
| SSO | 49.32 | |||||||
| SDS | 17.5687 | |||||||
| BGZ | 25.33 | |||||||
| BGU | 66.43 | |||||||
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
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