Monthly Archive for February, 2011

Choppy Chop

I still am not making heads or tails of this market. Seems like a 2 and 1/2 day correction was enough as markets gapped up and stayed up…and then down….and then back up. Choppy chop.

So I sat on my hands and just watchied charts build up, tear down and build back up. But, I guess that’s what trading is all about…making decisions on what you see and not what you think should be going on. :idea:

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.”
– - Trader Vic

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Coming this week…

I went small into this end of month, mutual fund and merger Monday with a couple long-term longs and short-term shorts. Cash is a position….as I am unsure with what is happening at the marketplace. 8) Oscar

Lotsa employement news this week, with Challenger and ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims and Monster Index on Thursday and the BLS Employment report on Friday. Of course they’ll mix in some PMI, ISM, construction spending and the Beige Book to keep the week jumping.

Futures on Sunday evening are down but not by too much…ES down by 5 and YM down by 40…nothing drastic…yet. US dollar and oil not very active at all. I’ll wait for Europe to open. Guess I’ll check on Oscar.

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Weekend Reading 2/26/11

The market is weird. Every time one guy sells, another one buys, and they both think they’re smart.

Oh no! Stagflation 2011: Why It Is Here And Why It Is Going To Be Very Painful.

Don’t! Why Panic Sellers Could Be Sorry.

Are they really? Why is Barnes & Noble performing well as a business while Borders is in bankruptcy?

This is not good. 15 Signs The U.S. Housing Market Is Headed For Complete And Total Collapse.

So, is there really a recovery going on? 18 Sobering Facts Which Prove That The Middle Class Is Not Being Included In This “Economic Recovery”.

Would a sex change help the unemployed? Despite Recent ‘Mancovery,’ It’s Still a ‘Mancession’.

Well….What Exactly Is a Green Weenie Anyhow?

Stocks to watch: Momentum Stocks For Next Week.

Q: Why did God create stock analysts ?
A: In order to make weather forecasters look good.

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Now I get it!

Finally an explanation I can understand……Explaining the credit / mortgage financial crisis:

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers – most of whom are unemployed alcoholics – to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi’s bar.

Taking advantage of her customers’ freedom from immediate payment constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi’s borrowing limit.

He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed.

Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.

One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently of course fired due to his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi’s bar.

However they cannot pay back the debts.

Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy.

DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95%. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80%.

The suppliers of Heidi’s bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation.

Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor.

The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties.

The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers.

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Gold, silver and oil, oh my!

I awoke today, went to my screens and thought, “boy, I’m early again!” I went a little long near the close yesterday and futures were down big this morning. I took advantage of the situation and closed out all my short positions but one SDS call contract. On the other hand, I did not add to any of my long positions. I’m waiting for Friday to do that.

The big story today was oil, gold and silver and how they reacted to a rumor of Gaddafi being shot. They each tanked hard. So, was the market happy about the supposed shooting or just happy that oil was falling?

GDP and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. This week is turning out to be the heaviest volume of this year and I’m sure Friday will not disappoint.
Big volume this week
Of course there are only 4 days in this week. Also notice that we haven’t broken down underneath the upward trendline going back to last September. 8)

As for the current market he described it as “grinding every day.” But “underneath stocks are exploding, and everything I’m seeing today looks bullish,” he said. “I’m not going to get negative just for the sake of being negative.” He added that it was a strong January and while there’s the potential for dislocation over summer when QE2 ends but that this is shaping up to be “a typically classic year” for the market.– Steve Cohen

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Is it time to buy?

Indexes had their biggest two day drop since last summer….which puts us in official correction territory, small but still a correction. I took profits on the majority of my remaining short positions and added a few long positions: C QQQQ and F, and those may be gone by the open on Thursday.

Jobless claims, Durable goods and New Home sales, along with Gas and Oil Inventories should make for an eventful morning. There’s also a lot of Treasuries on sale tomorrow as well. The volatility makes for a good short-term traders market. :)

You never need to chase a trade. The market has plenty of opportunities. The money runs out before the opportunities do. –John Saleeby

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Now what?

What Difference A Day Makes….all my SPY puts and SDS calls that expired worthless on Friday would have made some money today! Some remaining SDS calls along with TLT calls and IWM puts did come into the money today, so I grabbed it while I had a chance.

As I mentioned yesterday, volume and volatility were up big. ES contract volume was up 50%+ over Friday’s volume, SPY volume up 40% over the 6-month daily average, and the VIX was up 37%….those are some big moves. 8O

I don’t think we’ll follow-thru right away. I’m expecting a bounce on Wednesday on lower volume to get short again….I’m still short, but not much. It would be healthy for this market to have a deeper correction…say 10%. If the Libyan situation clears up any, we may see another run up!

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Premonitions

While the U.S. took a market holiday, the futures market was open for part of the morning, and boy did it react to all this geopolitical activism. ES futures are down 1%….muted compared to the pop oil has taken.

In a few hours we will see how the markets take the slow Monday grind down. And will oil break to 100 dollar mark? Gold is over the $1400 mark….now to see if that holds.

Along with the turbulence in the Mideast, earthquake in New Sealand and downgrades of Japn, we’ll hear how Consumer Confidence is doing and the Home Price Index. I’m thinking volume may be up tomorrow along with volatility.

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Day off

So we get a day off this week as we thank our Presidents for being important enough to make a holiday.

Index Futures this Sunday evening are heading down as oil, silver and gold head on up!

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Weekend Reading 2/19/11

An intersting read for traders: 10 Prudent Rules of Thumb for Hobby-Traders.

Two Perspectives On The Housing Market.

Just don’t go to work if you don’t want to! Democrats Who Left State are Located.

Are we there yet? Dollar On The Edge Of The Abyss.

Are The Wild Teacher Protests In Wisconsin A Prelude To The Economic Riots That Are Coming To America?

Raymond Floyd, when asked about the pressures of playing a high-stakes game against other very skilled players, said,

“It’s all about focus. The losers think about the money. The winners think about hitting perfect shots.”

… Sounds a lot like trading.

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