Monthly Archive for January, 2011

Unexpected

Published on January 31, 2011, 10:22 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

With all the mideast news all weekend, I really thought there would be more panic when the markets opened Monday. Gee, even CNBC had some live reporting on Sunday night. But no! No panic and the markets slowly ground up all day long. The M&A activity helped it along. And BIDU had some good earnings after the close.

In relation to Friday’s drop, today’s gains were not overpowering. I’m still looking for a continuation to the down move, although it may come in spurts and dribbles.

ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending reports at 10AM and Car Sales reports all day long. For the rest of the week it will be jobs, jobs, jobs with the biggie on Friday. Happy February!

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Finally!

Published on January 30, 2011, 8:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

I have been looking for a retracement for a couple weeks now because the market was overbought and sentiment was running too bullish. But it took Egypt to give traders an excuse to sell-off. I’m thinking we may have sold off even if the whole Egypt mess had not happened. Oh well, woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Now the question…Is that all there is? While all the indexes retreated on Friday, the Russell has been looking ugly for a while and now looks really bad. Russell at the end of January

Lots of things happening….the whole Mideast tensions, BLS Employment reports, the start of a new month, February options expiration coming in 3 weeks, financials and techs not very happy, retail sales disappointing…a continuing pullback is possible and probable.

So far futures are moving downward Sunday evening, but it’s a long time until U.S. markets open. Europe’s open should give us a pretty good idea on what to expect for Monday. I will be trading lighter until I see a definite trend, one way or the other.

I would sometimes think that maybe I ought to stop trading because it was very painful to keep losing. In “Fiddler on the Roof”, there is a scene where the lead looks up and talks to God. I would look up and say, “Am I really that stupid?” And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, “No, you are not stupid. You just have to keep at it.” …..So I did. — Michael Marcus

Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!

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Weekend Reading 1/29/11

Published on January 29, 2011, 7:27 am in reading. Closed Tags: .

The euro bail-out is not working. It’s time for insolvent countries to restructure their debts. Time for Plan B.

Empty Promises: 5 Reasons Why Barack Obama’s State Of The Union Address Was Completely Wrong About The Economy.

Buy the SPY at the close and sell at the open. Who Needs the Trading Day?

When Clinton talks, who listens? Six Years Before US Jobs Will Come Back.

Trader Racks Up a Second Epic Gain….helluva paycheck!

Bank closures are slower in 2011. Regulators close banks in Colo, NM, Okla, Wis; makes 11 failures so far this year.

Words from a pretty smart guy….

“The gold standard has, in my opinion, the serious disadvantage that a shortage in the supply of gold automatically leads to a contraction of credit and also of the amount of currency in circulation, to which contraction prices and wages cannot adjust themselves sufficiently quickly.” – Albert Einstein

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Same old

Published on January 27, 2011, 10:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

The Dow can’t close over 12000 and the S&P can’t close over 1300…but they’re trying! Tomorrow’s GDP number will make or break that process.

Gold took a dumper today along with the US dollar. IOndexes tried to take off but hung around the unchanged area most of the day, although they all did close in the green. They will pull back eventually, so I’ll just sit and watch.

“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
– Jesse Livermore

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Dull Day

Published on January 26, 2011, 10:11 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

This had to be one of the dullest FOMC days in recent memory. Sure we blew past Dow 12000 but we didn’t hold it and closed below. The S&P tried to make it to 1300 but it couldn’t do it. The Russell is still hankering to hit 800. If we can’t get these milestones out of the way, maybe the correction will start.

I had some mad money today so I tried an earnings play with QCOM, buying a couple Mar 52.5 puts shortly before the close. Oh well… they had good earnings and an even better guidance. They do have a tendency to pullback after a good report. NFLX had a great report also, while SBUX got their caffeine pulled out of their stock.

Tomorrow we continue with “home” week with Pending Home Sales and also the weekly Jobless Claims. Friday holds GDP…which will bee a market mover. But then again, I thought FOMC would move the market today.

Check out what your state is “known” for at the The United States of Shame. 8)

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Waiting

Published on January 25, 2011, 11:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

This morning I thought the markets were going to complete this long topping process and begin the rollover. And most of the day it was on its way. But, again, late in the afternoon the markets started that move up bringing them way off their lows. Most of the indexes closed near unchanged for the day.

Although the speech this evening was short on any meat but long on cheerleading, we’ll have to see how traders react. Overseas traders do not seem to be reacting yet. Maybe when Europe opens in several hours.

Maybe nothing until the FOMC rate decision comes out at 2:15PM EST. Oh well, let’s wait. 8O

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Up, up and away!

Published on January 24, 2011, 8:52 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

My jaw is sitting on my chest as I just stare at the Dow bubble getting bigger and bigger. The bigger they are, the harder they fall! This is not going to end well, but I have no idea when or how it may happen….maybe it just keeps going up!

The rest of the world has problems…China with its inflation…Europe with all its banking issues. It sounded like the Irish government collapsed this morning, Irish parties jostle for power. Both gold and the U.S. dollar collapsing…and oil tagging along for the ride. So why is the U.S. stock market acting so happy? What is the basis for this ballon ride?

As I Twitted on Friday…. OpEx, my day to peep thru the window and watch everyone else get screwed…I’m sittin in $$ waiting for Monday :-) And I’m still sitting there, as must be several traders, as volume was again a lowball Monday. Does everybody take a long weekend?

Truth, sound fundamentals, strong currency are passe – all that matters is rigging equities higher – the free market be damned!

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Weekend reading 01/22/11

Published on January 22, 2011, 9:18 pm in reading. Closed Tags: .

Well…there was a lot of reading last weekend…not so much today….

The Big Shift in Books Just Happened, and it should affect printers also.

Ah oh! China’s coming fall.

So where did all those jobs go? The Phantom 15 Million.

Still a lot of bulls out there. Bullish Sentiment Remains Historically High.

Things are looking better….Economy Is Gaining Momentum.

Stress is when you wake up screaming and you realize you haven’t fallen asleep yet.

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Is it over?

Published on January 20, 2011, 9:40 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

Wow, what a great day trading the S&P e-mini futures…in both directions! Definitiely a traders market today. But the question is…is the correction over?

I don’t think so. The S&P had 33 continuous days of closing above the 8-day exponential moving average. Yesterday the index closed just below the 8EMA and today it closed a little below yesterday. Is there another trend starting….down?
33 days of closing above the 8EMA

The Dow and the S&P, although closing in the red, were well off their lows. The RUT closed near its lows.

No news on Friday, but some pretty big earnings reports from GE and BAC. Oh yes, and it is Options Expiration Friday. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Dow has been down 10 of the last 12 January expirations. Let’s see if history repeats.

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It’s nice to be short

Published on January 19, 2011, 9:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , , .

…Short stocks that is :-) Moneymakers today were puts…in JPM SPY and SDS. Money losers were calls in V and TBT…but the shorts won dollar-wise.

Still playing with TWX and their internet connectivity! Yes it sucks, but I was online more than offline. I did see that GS and AXP did not have good news this morning…and the kick to the downside was on. And that was really good for my JPM puts…thank you.

Jobless claims tomorrow, along with Existing home sales and Leading indicators, will either continue the downtrend or turn it around.

Oh boy…this is getting fun!

I like my new telephone, my computer works just fine, my calculator is perfect, but Lord, I miss my mind! –Author Unknown

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