Monthly Archive for October, 2010

Dullsville to Crazy?

Published on October 31, 2010, 11:53 am in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The markets didn’t do much last week. Just look at the S&P, 5 days of dojis…it opened on Monday at 1184.74 and closed on Friday at 1183.26. Less than 1.75 points opening to closing range, although there was a 26 point high low range for the week.

You can see it on the weekly:

The weekly 200MA is the line in the sand if the S&P is going to go up!

Next week should bring lots of excitement, especially Wednesday. Election results will be known in the morning and the FOMC explains their position on Quantitative Easing 2 in the afternoon. And if that’s not enough, Friday brings us the monthly report on the Employment picture.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the First trading day in November: Dow down 4 of last 5. Dow was up 0.8% last year.

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Weekend Reading 10/30/10

Published on October 30, 2010, 10:55 am in reading. Closed Tags: .

“If con is the opposite of pro, is Congress the opposite of progress?”

A couple articles about QE2:
Why the Fed’s ‘Trickle-Down Economics’ is Failing.

Bernanke Asset Purchases Risk Unleashing 1970s Inflation Genie

And then some on trading:
Betting on a 317-year pattern.

No, Average Stock Holding Period Is Not 11 Seconds . . .

Why do bears always seem smarter than bulls? Three Things I Think I Think.

Play by your rules: Why Do We Trade Systematically?

Don’t forget Tuesday is “Take out the trash” day! Vote early, vote often 8)

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Chop chop chop

Published on October 28, 2010, 10:02 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

We’ve had six days of nothing…decent ranges during the day but always closing near breakeven…some indexes green some red. Looks like traders are waiting for an election result and QE2 announcement….or maybe just for the GDP report Friday morning.

My biggest position is cash, about 85% and then 15% long in financials via C and XLF. Futures are a bit red this evening as news from Japan was not so good. Let’s hope Europe has better news….but I’m not going to wait until 3 in the morning to find out. What will be will be!

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A bullish down day?

Published on October 27, 2010, 10:52 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

All the indexes except for the Nasdaq closed in the red, but way up off the lows. No matter what the bears throw at this market, the bulls keep fighting. But is it a futile exercise?

It still feels like a buy the rumor, sell the news…the news being both next week’s election and QE2 announcement.

On the other hand, the banks and semiconductors were strong in a week market today. I picked up some call options in both C and XLF out to next year, both January and March.

It’s all a guess until this market takes a stand and tells us something :!:

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Stormy day

Published on October 26, 2010, 10:17 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

I’m talking about the weather outside…60 MPH winds and lotsa rain here…it even rained sideways at times!

The markets on the other hand just waddled around breakeven all day, green red green red …make up your mind! So far, nothing happening this week.

Maybe Germany’s CPI report overnight or US Durable Goods Order Wednesday morning might juice up this market. Or maybe the dollar gaining some strength! Only 3 more trading days in October. Let’s make it a bit more exciting! 8)

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Geeky stuff

Published on October 25, 2010, 10:55 pm in Tools. Closed Tags: .

I had a few questions about computers so I thought I’d use links for my answers. First, here’s some interesting reading: The incredible growth of the Internet since 2000.

Several questions on RAID configuration for hard drives: RAID from Wikipedia.

And even more confusing than storage is video cards: Dual or Multi-Monitor Desktop Computer for Stock Trading and monitors: How to Choose an LCD Monitor for Stock Trading.

And here’s another implementation of trying to explain the computer to traders: How To Choose a Stock Trading Computer.

Hope these help and keep the questions coming!

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It’s a bull!…(shit)

Published on October 25, 2010, 10:16 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

We had a dramatic gap up today, but after that…nothing. The Dow popped 115 points but ended at a +31 points…green but well off its highs. Of course it reacted this morning to a very weak dollar and then went down in the afternoon reacting again to the dollar’s strength.

I hated to see the premarket and open, but it wasn’t enough to stop out my shorts. And then, the subsequent drop was not enough to stop out my longs. So I’m sitting right where I was Friday!

Tomorrow we have Home Prices and Consumer Confidence. Also overnight we’ve get some news on Great Britain’s GDP. Be careful out there…and remember, “Don’t fight the Fed!” 8O

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Time for ghosts and goblins

Published on October 24, 2010, 4:45 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

An ugly, messy market on Friday with low volume! And it even continued after the cash close as the dollar had a flash crash losing $3 in seconds and recovering just as fast. Several trades were cancelled. Flash Crash of the Day: Dollar Index.

Gold had its first down week in six and the U.S. dollar had its best week in the same timeframe. So which came first, the chicken or the egg? The Dow and S&P are flirting with their 200 week moving averages. And although the Russell and Nazdaq had a decent Friday, the weekly shows them both in a doji. The coming week will tell us how this resolves, but they all are looking toppy to me.

We’ve got a jam-packed week of news coming up with Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and Sentiment, Durable Goods Orders, Chicago PMI and GDP….oh yeah, and the usual Jobless CLaims. The G20 meeting will probably be a non-event.

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac: “Late October is time to buy depressed stocks, especially Tech and small caps.” On the other hand, the last 3 months have not acted at all like their seasonality would predict. Oh well.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week! Happy trading.

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Weekend Reading 10/23/10

Published on October 22, 2010, 9:57 pm in reading. Closed Tags: .

If you trade the VXX, as I did this week, here’s a couple of articles of interest:
Why You Should Hate VXX.

VXX Sux!

VXX Monthly Performance.

And some more diverse reading….
Twitter Can Predict the Stock Market.

The US Dollar is not Driving the Market – Gold Is!

In Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas; 138 US bank failures this year. Regulators close 6 banks.

A very good interview: Mike Bellafiore from SMB Training.

And read about my latest computer. I’d be interested in hearing about your trading machine. I know….I’m a geeky nerd!

Ans a chuckle in closing….

“For the first time in history, there are 100,000 home foreclosures in the month of September. 100,000 people were told this fall they were going to lose their house. 100,001 if you count Nancy Pelosi.” — Jay Leno

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Manipulation?

Published on October 21, 2010, 10:18 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

When you look up “manipulation” in the dictionary these days, you see the financial marketplace….be it the Fed printing money or the PPT or all the governments playing with their currencies….Any which way you look at it, this market is screwed up!

Good news is good, bad news is good…one day either the bulls or the bears will be disappointed. Just look at the latest earnings reports. Companies are doing better at the expense of Main Street. They need to continue to layoff and shed expenses to keep the EPS going higher. The toplines are hurting. How much longer can this go on?

Time cycles are being compressed in the markets. What took weeks to happen years ago, is now happening in days, and today it felt like hours. Of course, most trades are now taking fractions of a second by computers placed at the exchanges.

Oh well, you got to just trade what you see….and I still see a topping pattern so I’m still net short. I added some DZZ to take advantage of a gold pullback.

Futures are quiet this evening and there is no economic reports on Friday. Let’s see what the markets think of that! Have fun.

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