Monthly Archive for August, 2010

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Another yuck!

Published on August 19, 2010, 10:39 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Well what do you expect when you get bitch-slapped 3 times real hard in a matter of 90 minutes. Jobless claims, Philly Fed and Leading indicators were rough, like wiping with sandpaper! 8O

Reading market analysts and blogs this evening was like watching a tennis match…I can’t tell if this is the begining of the end, or the end of the beginning. Is this the start of a larger run down, or a selloff before the run-up?

I played the countertrend today with entries and exits in BGU and SSO…just some scalps, but did end the day buying a quarter position in BGU at 43.77 which was green by the close of afterhours trading. Since the market hurt all the bulls today, it probably wants to hurt the bears on Friday.

Today’s volume was the highest of the week and the Advance/Decline Volume was very negative at -12:1. No news on Friday so it’s all up to OpEx Friday to drum up the business. Maybe a few more M&A announcements can get the bulls all riled. :mrgreen:

Another disappointing day

Published on August 18, 2010, 10:43 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Sure we ended in the green…and we rallied early in the day with the Dow coming from a 75 point deficit up 142 points! But, there’s always a but, the Dow closed at +9 and the Dow futures (YM) continued to sell off after the cash close. All the index futures closed in the red. These end of day selloffs are getting consistently ugly. :(

We have two chances tomorrow of making some news that moves: Initial Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. I think I’ll sit and wait.

Almost a really good day

Published on August 17, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

As Hannibal Smith used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Well, we had an almost 200 point day…..unfortunately it ended up a +103 day.

There was a pretty big collapse in the A/D volume, as in mid-day the volume was +12:1 but by the close it was down to +5:1….a decent number, but not as good as it could have been. The last half hour drop was ominous. 8O

I’m up to 1/2 positions in my ETFs and am looking to be at full positions tomorrow. Feeling good about this so far and am looking for a green close to this OpEx week…. although tomorrow may be a consolidating or slightly down doji day….not much news, only the oil inventories at 10:30AM. I’ve added TBT and UCO to my watchlist.

Here’s an interesting story: The Disposition Effect.

Happy trading!

Same old, same old

Published on August 16, 2010, 8:45 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , .

For three days in a row we have opened and closed right about the same place. This kind of trading shows we are confused and don’t know which way to go!

August is usually tricky trading because of the low volume. It’s a time to practice holding onto your money or taking a vacation.

I’m sitting a little bit long with a few January call options in XLK XLE XLF and TBT. I’m holding most of my money, but thought some limited speculative plays using options wouldn’t break my bank. Here’s to a great 200-point turnaround Tuesday! ;)

Retail Week

Published on August 15, 2010, 10:19 pm in Opinions. Closed Tags: .

It’s time for the retailers to be reporting earnings, and many are doing it this week. But since we know retailers and consumers have been sucking wind, it should all be priced in. But, we also have PPI, housing starts and leading indicators, so looks like another news driven week coming up.

The major indicies are trapped in a sideways pattern from Thursday. You could tell from the big time chop and whipsaws while waiting until we get a breakout on either side. By the early evening action today of the futures, that breakout may be to the downside.

Japan reported a much worse than expected Q2 GDP, and futures reacted immediately down, but are recovering slowly. We’ll see what morning brings.

Thanks for checking in and good luck tomorrow!

Weekend Reading 8/14/10

Published on August 13, 2010, 9:48 pm in reading. Closed Tags: , .

Let’s start with a funny:

“This week in 1861, the first federal income tax was instituted to pay for the Civil War. These days, we don’t worry about that kind of stuff. Our wars are paid for by our grandchildren.” — Jay Leno

Ok, now start reading:
`Hindenburg Omen’ Suggests Another Leg Down in Stocks: Technical Analysis.

More HO stuff: The Hindenburg Omen did NOT Volley & Thunder from Ian Woodward’s Investing Blog.

How Stocks Have Done On Friday The 13th Since 1900.

The Geography of a Recession, or, what does the unemployment rate look like since January 2007?

Rising Profits Are Good, but There’s a Catch.

Obama defends ground zero mosque plans. Our President couldn’t find the time to attend the National Day of Prayer which is completely non-demoninational, but he can schedule to host an Iftar dinner? Asshole!

BofA, Citi added as lead GM IPO underwriters.

Financials Now Attractive for First Time in Months.

Before you run off to read all those, here’s another laugh:

“The U.S. Postal Service reported a $3.5 billion loss in the last quarter, which established it as the federal government’s most successful enterprise.” — Jay Leno

Friday the 13th

Published on August 12, 2010, 10:40 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

The low of the day was put in at the open on Thursday, moved up quickly and then just meandered in a narrow range for the rest of the day. Can we have an up day on Friday the 13th? I’m thinking we can and should!

Yesterday I bought TNA afterhours, looking to hold on for a week maybe. Instead I sold at the pre-market open for about 60 cents profit, which was nice. But before the cash markets opened, TNA had dropped precipitously and I got back in and got back out an hour later. Man, that was crazy…and lucky…oh yeah, and profitable!

Speaking of crazy, have you seen NFLX over the past 2 weeks? It’s been going straight up and making new highs today! Judging by that action, the market is thinking everyone is going to be unemployed soon and watching movies from home….confirming the jobless claims and employment reports! :roll:

Tomorrow will start with CPI and retail sales reports. And soon after the open we get Consumer Sentiment. That should make for a wild Friday the 13th. And watch out for black cats and don’t walk under any ladders.

One more thing….Trade what you see not what you think. Here is a funny cartoon video:Trading what you think.    :D

Wow, that was unexpected!

Published on August 11, 2010, 10:20 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Markets sucked today, diving overnight and then continuing at the open. By the close they erased all their year’s gains! And then CSCO came out with a crappy report, missing expectations and futures crashed…again…going down another 12 points on the S&P (via ES) or 90 points on the Dow (via YM) afterhours. What a pile of bear poopy!

So the Dow is down 1000 points from last week’s high, and feeling a bit uncomfortable. A wise old sage told me the best trades are made while your finger is shaking when you hit ”enter”. So, while that finger was shaking I nibbled on some TNA afterhours for maybe a 3-6 day hold. I’m looking to do some shopping tomorrow (Thursday) to pick up some long positions.

Initial Claims in the morning will be the catalyst for a gap down or just a boring breakeven kind of day. The Stock Trader’s Almanac still gives tomorrow a bear face, but Friday and most of next week gets a bull face.

So I hope you didn’t get hurt too badly today, but better days are in store. Of course, if you’re bear, today was heaven. Thanks for reading and good luck tomorrow!

Oh, and here’s an interesting statistic to keep in mind….

The latest survey shows that three out of four people make up 75% of the population!

Really? 8O

Is the grass growing?

Published on August 10, 2010, 10:44 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Ok, yesterday it was paint drying and today it was grass growing….slow and boring….until 2:15PM! Then all hell broke loose. There was a minute or two that I thought we would actually go for a green close, but no. Still, it was not a bad recovery off the lows.

We still have some consolidation, or better yet, bottom probing to do here. The big question: if we test a bottom will it hold? Seasonally, the second half of August is better than the first, or should I say more bullish. Also, August options expiration is generally a strong week. So we should have a good couple of weeks going into Labor Day.

Now for some wacky stuff: Here’s an OMG! Tony Robbins is now doing financial coaching! Check out his Business and Finance Blog where he has a “quick” word of caution for you. The “quick” word takes almost 22 minutes! OMG :evil:

And in closing, here’s a funny:

“In Portland, Oregon, a 7-year-old girl’s lemonade stand was shut down by the police because she didn’t get a $120 business license. On the bright side, by closing her business, she’s now eligible for a $108,000 government bailout.” — Jay Leno

Is the paint dry yet?

Published on August 9, 2010, 10:26 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

This had to be the lowest volume day this year, or maybe multi-years! It’s definitely the lowest volume I have ever seen in the ES emini….even for half-day trading….less then a million ES contracts traded!

Except for the low volume, today played out as thought, as the S&P twiddles with its June highs. The action tomorrow will be after 2PM and the Fed announcement. Traders are optimistic that the news will be good and the Fed may resume some of their stimulus measures.

Futures are down early this evening. While there are a few economic reports in the morning, there probably isn’t enough there to bring traders back from the Hamptons. Sure hope we don’t have to watch another coat of paint drying. :?