Monthly Archive for July, 2010

Page 3 of 3

Same old shit…different day!

Published on July 8, 2010, 10:02 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: .

It was a typical quiet sideways to flat day after a large up move the day before. And then the last hour came and all indexes moved up to close near their highs. I continued to shine away from individual stocks and just traded the index futures.

The Baltic Dry Index continues to drop, now below 2000. It is the longest continuous decline on record: 31 straight days! Is this predicting a big swoon in the world economy?

I spent all evening waiting for “The Decision.” Living in Northeast Ohio, I was disappointed. Oh well, life goes on. Now back to the charts.

Smokin’

Published on July 7, 2010, 10:58 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

Lots of trading today….all in S&P (ES) and Russell (TF) emini futures. What a fantastic day! And my oil play via UCO, although still under water, can actually see the surface of the water. :lol:

Okay, now what? We need to see some confirmation, but after a big move like today maybe a breather is in order. Some sideways meandering would not be a bad thing, nor would a small pullback.

My biggest problem, still, is DRYS, it’s been sinking for weeks, along with the BDI. The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for the 30th consecutive session. It is the longest decline in six years. During this swoon, the index has fallen 50% from May 26th.

Here’s some bullish thoughts:
Why Jeff Rubin still sees triple-digit oil prices by 2011

Altucher says S&P ready for 1500

Gee, it sure felt like Monday

Published on July 6, 2010, 10:03 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Last week, the indexes fell on average 5%. Discretionary consumer stocks, industrials, and financials were hit hardest, which pretty much put the S&P’s 50-day moving average to cross below the 200-day moving average….or the “famous” Death-Cross. Whenever a shorter moving average crosses below a longer moving average, well, the bear is back.

Last night it looked like the bear had it well under control, but by this morning, the bulls were back. For the first couple of hours, it even looked like we would have a trend-day-up. Oil led the stock markets up. But, the bulls couldn’t get their act together and began to waiver at noon, and spent the rest of the day snorting: What the $%@&*!

The S&P ended closing right where it opened, creating another doji day or another indecisive day.

Remember that at the close on Wednesday some inverse, or bearish, ETFs will undergo a 5-to-1 reverse split: ERY, DRV, TZA, and TYP. That is, if you own 500 shares of TZA Wednesday night, you will own 100 shares of TZA at a higher price…specifically 5 times the closing price….on Thursday morning.

So watch it! Happy trading :!:

Weekly Reading 07/03/10

Published on July 3, 2010, 10:48 pm in reading. Closed Tags: .

As you’re barbequeing, drinking beer and waiting for the markets to open, check out some interesting articles:

Reflections on a Decade of Financial Change

How America Can Create Jobs

Inflation or Deflation, why settle for just one?

About that Head and Shoulders Pattern

GE Distances Itself From CEO’s Reported Comments.

Happy Birthday USA!

Not very festive

Published on July 2, 2010, 9:10 pm in Charts and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , .

It looked like we could have closed in the green just 5 minutes before the cash close. But bam! The bears gave the bulls a big F U and the ES quickly dove 10 points in as many minutes…and kept going for another 10 minutes into the futures close.

“Death Cross” is upon us…. Y’know when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. They are at the same place right now, but one more down day will send us well below. The last time this bear signal happened was Dec. 2007…. and you do remember what happened the next 15 months, don’t you? You get the picture. But y’know, everybody is talking about it…even the TV talking heads….too much. Since everyone is talking and expecting it, maybe it won’t happen this time….or will it?

The Nasdaq has 10 down days in a row. I think this may be a first. It had 9 straight red days back in 1994. Since we broke the record it may be time for an up day.

Overall it was a very odd day – stocks down, VIX down, bonds down, dollar down, oil down – just about every asset class. So there is a lot of figuring out to do. We do have a good thing about to happen…..Congress is going on break….and when they are not in session, the markets go up. So I’m thinking next week is an up week. :mrgreen:

And if not, at least it will be a short week. Have a wonderful weekend.

OK, let’s try this again

Published on July 1, 2010, 10:35 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

Initial Claims higher, that sucks! The morning was entirely Bizzaro world, when all asset classes went down: dollar, oil, stocks, gold all down! Wasn’t that like an apocalypse? I was ready to capitulate, but I had a meeting to get to.

It was a day that made me money….through no fault of my own. I had put in some ES buy stops at 1013 before going to a luncheon meeting. As it turns out, I was filled and when I got back, ES was at 1023. I sold immediately when I saw that!! Thank you market.

Well, I’m not sure it was a key reversal, but the bulls shouldn’t be too discouraged. The market performed well off of a bottom. Advance/Decline volumes were -16:1 early in the morning but ended the day close to 1:1. Tomorrow is the start of a long weekend and we may see some patriotic buying.

It was surprising that the market was able to recover as much as it did with all the bad news this week. Today’s Initial Claims pretty much told us that Friday’s NFP report will be ugly. Home sales confirmed what we all knew. And the gold bugs got blasted bad! One more thing, AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish sentiment has now stayed above its historical average for 8 straight weeks. How can any market go up after all that?

We may not go up much, but we are oversold and it is the beginning of a new quarter and a national holiday. A bounce is in order.