Trading thoughts, ideas, tips, musings, and pontifications. . .not necessarily in that order.
I was watching 3 companies for good earnings reports: IBM TXN and ZION. By their afterhours trading I’m thinking they all failed. But so far futures markets haven’t reacted negatively.
And on Tuesday it may get real wacky! I’ll be watching for GS in the morning, along with housing data at 8:30AM and then AAPL after the close.
Of course, these markets are pretty wacky with or without earnings!
C joined BAC and JPM with higher than expected earnings and improved credit trends. But they and all financials puked on Friday. You have to wonder… If you’re making more money on less revenue, isn’t that a good thing? Would you rather see increased revenues with lower earnings?
This earnings season expectations are that all earnings will be good, and so far so good. It’s all about what you say in your conference call. BAC laid out a scenario that doesn’t sit well for any financial institution. They are saying that FinReg will curb debit-card fees and that will reduce revenues and increase costs. In BAC’s case, they say they may have to take a charge of up to $10 Billion dollars. That’s gonna hurt not only BAC, but all banks and financials, like MA and V. Boy did that show on Friday!
So now July OpEx Friday is down 7 of last 10. That sucks…and I’m reading in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, that in the week after July OpEx, the Dow has been down 7 of the last 11 years. That’s ominous.
This week will be one of the biggies with hundreds of earnings reports, including GS and AAPL, 11 of the Dow Industrials, and about every airline! Ben Bernanke speaks on the Hill, but otherwise a fairly data-quiet week.
And one more for the intereting reading pile: Short side of commodity market becomes crowded.
See you in the market 
What can you say about Friday? I don’t do well on OpEx Fridays so I try to stay out. But I do have some long positions in my swing/long-term account that remind me of day old fish. But that’s just for a day or two….it is a longer term account. I need to review the charts, but I think we sank into an oversold area fairly quickly. I’ll wait until Sunday to make a decision for stocks to watch.
In the mean time:
Have a great weekend everybody!
First it was all the pre-market news like Initial Claims, PPI, Empire Index and Philly Fed numbers. Although the numbers weren’t all that bad, actually the IC numbers were pretty good, traders didn’t like them and we went down…and pretty dramatically after the Philly Fed announcement. Oh yeah, and AAPL scheduled a meeting for Friday morning. We meandered down under for the rest of the day.
But (there’s always a but) first rumors then news came out after 3PM that had the markets giddy with happiness. Maybe BP has finally capped the well! BP took off. Then GS might be announcing a settlement with the SEC. GS took off. Then, kaboom, the markets took off, some ending green…others red. Pretty much breakeven for the day, again. Although that was a nice recovery for the indexes.
Then afterhours, GOOG comes out with a crappy earnings report. GOOG quickly dove more than $20 dollars. But (what did I tell you?) it had no affect on the QQQQs or Nasdaq futures or S&P futures. Maybe GOOG is no longer an 800-lb. gorilla? Even AAPL went green afterhours.
Oh yeah, and Congress passed FinReg….ho hum.
Tomorrow brings some very anticipated earnings: GE BAC and C and they might just set the tone for Friday’s trading, well at least until 9:55AM when Michigan Sentiment numbers come out.
You know I’ve been bullish on oil for a couple weeks now, and news like this can really perk it up in short order: An Attack on Iran: Back on the Table. Now, just clean up the mess and maybe we can get back to normal. 
The indexes ended right about where they stopped yesterday. Although the indexes were pretty tame, individual stocks seemed to move up nicely…MON DRYS CSCO had very nice moves. Even INTC ended in the green but well off last nights spike after earnings report.
This evening after China announced GDP up 10.3%, the US dollar sunk, and S&P futures popped. But why? Although impressive numbers, it was lower than expected and lower than the last report. I expect our futures will retreat after the initial pop.
I came across this quote today:
Raymond Floyd, a golfer…. When asked about the pressures of playing a high-stakes game against other very skilled players, Mr. Floyd said, “It’s all about focus. The losers think about the money. The winners think about hitting perfect shots.” … Sounds a lot like trading.
And remember…Options expiration is designed to take as much money from as many people as money managers can. So be careful the next 2 days. 
I hope everyone had a great day trading today! It looks like tomorrow may get a little wild also. INTC had blowout earnings and the futures reacted with splendor immediately, gapping up at the open and staying up there.
The SPX closed while wrestling with its 50ma.
Sure, it’s a speed-bump maybe, but a test of the 200 should be in the cards.
And look at these Advance/Decline volumes today: Russell 2000 +16:1 and both NYSE and Nasdaq +12:1 Those are some impressive numbers. Do they continue? I think tomorrow should be a high volume day…all the people sitting on the sidelines will say, “What the fuck? I’m going in!” and all the shorts will say, “I’m fucked! Let me out.”
And people wonder how I got the name of this blog. 
‘Battle-tested’ trading veteran Adam Hewison and his team are allowing me to offer you TWO complimentary weeks of their service so you can see how much it can truly help your trading.
Gain access to Marketclub’s multifaceted system including analysis, training videos and his proprietary signal system here:
MarketClub’s multifaceted system
Their arsenal of tools and unique indicators can really help you establish the overall trend of 320,000 tickers quickly and easily for many different time frames and trading styles.
On top of that, their customer support team is LIVE and readily available throughout your trial to help you navigate their service…
So take a few moments and sign up now for a 2 Week Trial to Marketclub and register for Thursdays Webinar to show you…
* How to use the ‘Smart Scan’ feature to help you find your next trade
* How the ‘Trade Triangles’ will tell you when to pull the trigger on a trade
* How “Instant Alerts’ will keep you ahead of any unexpected moves (and send you an email if your ticker crosses over certain ‘parameters’ as well)
* How to access their dedicated customer support team (they can explain all of the features of the system and walk you through it online OR on the phone).
This offer won’t be live for long don’t miss your chance to test drive one of the greatest values in trading while it lasts:
MarketClub’s multifaceted system….check it out!
*Don’t forget to sign-up for Thursdays webinar. Just look for the link to register in the email with your log-in information to MarketClub. The staff will show you exactly how to use the service, and you can ask questions and interact with other MarketClub users to get the full experience.
This market could not make up it’s mind on what direction to go. Maybe it was just waiting for the earnings reports this evening. There must have been a lot of people waiting because nobody was trading….volume pathetic again. Options Expiration week….hours of boredom….with minutes of panic and/or excitment thrown in!
Earnings season looks like it may be just what the bulls were waiting for. AA CSX and NVLS all came in with better-than-expected results and the S&P futures were taking off before they closed at 4:15 PM EDT. And later on this evening, it looks as if they would like to continue their move up. Of course there is still 11 hours before Tuesday’s open.
Speaking of AA, it’s been going down ever since the last earnings report 3 months ago.
So does it go up for 3 months now?
It would be nice if the markets tomorrow just continue up in a nice-n-easy manner, slow but steady. What I would not like to see is a gap-n-crap in a wild opex kind of way….but, then again, it is opex week. 
AA will kickoff earnings season on Monday after the close, and then we got some biggies the rest of the week: INTC GOOG JPM GE BAC C. Earnings for the 2nd quarter should be good, but it will be the guidance for the 3rd quarter and 2nd half that will control the market direction.
Futures this evening have been quiet with no volume….Asia still waking up….have to wait for Europe to kick it in the ass.
Only 3.6 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE tape on Friday….not much. This is definitely a contributing factor: Small Investors Flee Stocks, Changing Market Dynamics.
Guess I should rest up for the morning. 
Did you notice how consolidation leads to expansion? We had to wait all day in a fairly tight range, but got a nice move going into the close. We recovered all of last week’s loss in a holiday-shortened week. The Wall Street Journal’s story gives a good overview: Best Week in a Year for Dow, Up 511 Points.
The Fast Money guys at CNBC were mostly bearish for next week: Recap: Bearish Outlook.
And some additional interesting notes:
Is now the time to experiment with negative interest rates?
Double Dip or a Bull Market? Earnings Could Tell the Story.
America: Optimism on hold.
But there is an “Uh oh”….congress is back in session next week. Like I posted last week, the market likes it when congress is not in session because there is no chance of anyone saying or doing anything stupid. Now, coming back, well, that will put a damper on the market! 
Have a great weekend!
| INDU | 0.00 | |||||||
| NASDAQ | 2847.21 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1315.99 | |||||||
| ^RUT | 764.64 | |||||||
| QID | 34.83 | |||||||
| QQQ | 62.51 | |||||||
| QLD | 50.55 | |||||||
| TZA | 21.71 | |||||||
| SSO | 51.03 | |||||||
| SDS | 16.99 | |||||||
| BGZ | 24.01 | |||||||
| BGU | 70.03 | |||||||
Sometimes, entranced by the screens, watching equities, options and futures change colors, charts moving in a wave, and indicators pointing in every direction, I just have to scream....
Looking to find out about covered calls?
How about training TV?
